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Tesla Completes World's Largest Battery Project In Half the Time Promised (engadget.com)
Rei writes: Tesla announced the completion of the world's largest battery -- a 100 MW/129 MWh wind-power backup system for 30,000 homes in South Australia. Three times more powerful than any other battery on Earth, the $50 million project had garnered press due to Elon Musk's Twitter boast that it would be completed within 100 days of the contract signing or it would be free. In the end, Tesla took it up a notch: the battery was finished 55 days from the date of contract signing and 99 days from the date of Musk's boast itself.
The man said he would do the thing, and he did the thing.
Why is it any story about Musk ends up dominated by trolls and assholes? Butt-hurt much that he can actually get things done?
I'm waaaaaiting....
Why is it any story about Musk ends up dominated by trolls and assholes? Butt-hurt much that he can actually get things done?
Because when Tesla is viewed as a black box - considering only revenue, profit, and other information without considering the context or goal horizon - the economic forecast is very bad.
Almost all stock predictions made today are based on this sort of black-box calculation. Every month the analysts plug a bunch of companies' numbers into their spreadsheet algorithms, and those algorithms tell them how well the stock is doing. They then write an article noting what happened in the previous month as the "reason" they say the stock is doing whatever the algorithm said.
The analysts give the impression that they reviewed the information and are giving expert opinion. In reality, they are reporting events and claiming the algorithm outputs as their conclusion.
Also, the algorithm goal horizon is 6 months, and Tesla has been reinvesting lots of revenue into new production (ie - gigafactory). Tesla's goal horizon is a couple of years down the road, where they will be in a position to corner the market in battery production or supercharger network or home solar.
So a lot of people bought Tesla short, and are hoping it goes down so they can make some money. I don't know how many people are shorting Tesla right now, but 8 months ago it was something like 22% of all Tesla stock was short. Since Tesla has been doing well, that number has dropped considerably, but there are still bunches of people holding out and hoping that Tesla crashes so that they can at least mitigate their loss.
It's a less right now, but we still hear "echoes" of all the nudging and convincing that people were doing to try to make the stock crash.
It'll fade over time.
Ok, I'll give you that Musk is a tax soak. But unlike most tax soaks, he actually delivers some cool and useful things for the taxpayers dime. In this case, I'm willing to look the other way. When it comes to cutting waste of taxpayer funds, there are a lot of other candidates I'd cut before I got around to Musk.
Progressivism: Parasites helping parasites to help themselves - to other people's stuff.
Toyota's sold over 10 million cars every year, for many years. Toyota's stock is valued at $184 billion.
Tesla sells less than 100,000 cars a year, less than 1% of Toyota's sales, and doesn't have a track record of decades of consistent success that Toyota has. Tesla's stock is at $53 billion.
1% of Toyota's sales. If Tesla also had Toyota's proven track record, the company might be worth 1% of Toyota's price. It's overpriced by at least 30X.
"But Tesla sells ELECTRIC cars!", someone says. Toyota sells more ELECTRIC cars than Tesla does.
Kinda. He bought the batteries "locally", reducing shipment time by weeks. They were made by Samsung, not Tesla.
Firstly it only takes a couple of "weeks" to ship from the USA in the first place. The difference between shipping from Korea vs USA to South Australia is 25 days vs 30 days (there's basic calculators you can use online for this).
Secondly he bought the batteries from Samsung SDI not because of shipping time to Australia, but because of lack of availability from his normal supplier: Panasonic, whose batteries are made right next to South Korea anyway. The gigafactory and "made in America" was never part of the equation, and neither was shipping time.
Any sufficiently motivated municipal electrical engineering company could have bolted all the pieces together.
Most sufficiently motivated people can do most things. The problem is very few consider it as an option due to preconceived ideas about what a solution looks like. This entire exercise was about demonstrating the viability of a solution, not showing off that Tesla has any kind of superior engineering capabilities. This has basically been Tesla's process all along with the vast majority of their stuff actually being incredibly off the shelf, down to the type of batteries they use.