Slashdot Mirror
Nearly 4 Million Bitcoins Lost Forever, New Study Says (fortune.com)
An anonymous reader shares a report: According to new research from Chainalysis, a digital forensics firm that studies the bitcoin blockchain, 3.79 million bitcoins are already gone for good based on a high estimate -- and 2.78 million based on a low one. Those numbers imply 17% to 23% of existing bitcoins, which are today worth around $9,700 each, are lost. While others have speculated about the number of lost bitcoins, the Chainalysis findings are significant because they rely on a detailed empirical analysis of the blockchain, where all bitcoin transactions are recorded.
It's beginning to feel a lot like late 2000 again. Those who were around then will remember how much hype there was around technology, and how the various stock market indices were constantly hitting new highs. Profit was the last thing that businesses were thinking about; it was all about growth. Even the most outlandish ideas were taken seriously. The future outlook was nothing but pure optimism.
Then it all came crashing down just a few short months later.
Just look at the outrageous valuations of so many Silicon Valley companies. Look at this cryptocurrency nonsense, where performing a single transaction requires more energy than an average American home uses in a month. Look at the nonsense coming out of moz://a, especially the silly Rust programming language and the terrible Firefox 57 release.
There are a lot of people who will be in for a very rude awakening, and it could very well be happening much sooner than they expect!
That's the reality for most of the early miners: they probably all cashed out early-ish. There's a few stories of people hanging on to them longer for whatever reason, like that student who lost the password for his wallet, and finally found it when his stash was worth €300k or so. He bought an apartment with it, and good for him... but that same stash would be in the low 8 figures today.
If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
I'd disagree on two points. First, it's very likely people mined some Bitcoin and forgot about them or at least how to access them.
This is very likely the case. Back at the start when it was worth shit I mined about a dozen BTC. Lost them when I reformatted my computer and didn't even remember until years later when it would have been worth over $1,000.