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Tesla Could Be Hogging Batteries and Causing a Global Shortage, Says Report (gizmodo.com)

According to a report from the Korea news outlet ETNews, Tesla's solution to fixing a manufacturing bottleneck responsible for a $619 million loss last quarter could be causing a global battery shortage. Panasonic reportedly gave most of its cache of batteries in Japan to Tesla so that the automaker and Gigafactory 1 energy-storage company could keep up with its ambitious production schedule. Gizmodo reports: In early October, Tesla struggled with a "production bottleneck," but by the end of the month, Panasonic stated it would increase battery output at the Gigafactory, now that it understood the issues that led to the bottleneck and could automate some of the processes that had been done by hand. But this likely did not help Tesla fix any immediate shortage issues. ETNews claims that Panasonic is coping with the shortage by shipping batteries in from Japan. And many Japanese companies in need of cylinder batteries have turned to other suppliers like LG, Murata, and Samsung -- but those companies have not been able to meet the demands. Reportedly, companies that had contracts before 2017 aren't affected by the shortage, but several other manufacturers have not been able to place orders for batteries, and won't be able to order more batteries until the middle of next year.

27 of 159 comments (clear)

  1. Tesla's Cobalt Conundrum by js290 · · Score: 2
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    1. Re:Tesla's Cobalt Conundrum by Rei · · Score: 3, Informative

      When the very summary is wrong, where does one even start? "Most" cobalt is not in the Congo. The cheapest primary cobalt is found in the Congo, with the caveat that it's not been that heavily explored due to previous levels of demand (there's a new wave of exploration at present). Cobalt, however, is found in significant consequence everywhere that nickel, copper, and many other commonly mined metals are. Some places recover it in the tailings, but most don't bother because, again, historically demand hasn't justified it.

      Cobalt isn't a rare metal. In the crust, it's 2-3 times as common as lead, 40% as common as copper, a third as common as zinc, etc. Nor is it "spread out"; as mentioned, it's associated with many commonly mined minerals.

      As for mining in Congo itself: at least 80% is mined in big international mines with modern equipment and practices; how much "over 80%" is uncertain. The remaining percentage is so-called "artisinal mining" - improvised mines mined with manual labour and primitive equipment (aka, generally not very safe). Some are villages mining their own land, while others are outsiders exploiting locals. In the past year, there's been a big crackdown on artisinal cobalt, with major buyers taking steps to track the origin of their products better and keep it out of their product streams. Of course, one can always expect artisinal producers to try to do more to hide the origins of their cobalt, and/or sell to less scrupulous buyers (such as in China).

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    2. Re:Tesla's Cobalt Conundrum by Aighearach · · Score: 3, Insightful

      According to this Canadian mining company about to start operation of a primary cobalt mine in the US, 58% of world cobalt production was from DR Congo in 2015.

      http://www.ecobalt.com/assets/...

      Before offering corrections, it is important to understand what the words mean within their context. In the context of industrial supply, where the mines are is what they are talking about when discussing the locations of a resource.

      For example, it doesn't prove them wrong to point out that there is a lot of cobalt on Venus.

    3. Re:Tesla's Cobalt Conundrum by Rei · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I did not say "most currently mined cobalt", because currently mined cobalt simply will not support battery production scaleup. I said "most cobalt", period. You have to look at where additional cobalt for batteries is going to be coming from. And it's not going to be coming from the Congo. Yes, part of the supply will come from expansions to major Congo mines, but most is going to come from new cobalt projects and from adding cobalt recovery to the tailings of existing mines.

      It's nothing at all analogous to "cobalt on Venus". As was explicitly stated: "Cobalt, however, is found in significant consequence everywhere that nickel, copper, and many other commonly mined metals are."

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  2. Business 101 by fluffernutter · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Fuck everyone else. It's just good business.

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    1. Re:Business 101 by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Fuck everyone else. It's just good business.

      As we shift from fossil fuels to batteries, we will have to ramp up production. Tesla is causing that to happen NOW, rather than in the future when it could be even more disruptive. This is a Good Thing. We need to produce more lithium, and more cobalt. We need to make more batteries, and make them cheaper and more efficiently. By bringing the inevitable supply problems forward, innovators will be incentivized to find solutions.

    2. Re: Business 101 by MachineShedFred · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Monopolistic? Don't be an idiot. It's basic supply and demand. And, Tesla has a monopoly on exactly nothing, except maybe a trade secret on generating fanboy hype. Neither does Panasonic.

      There is simply not enough battery manufacturing to meet the current demand. So Tesla is locking up the supply they need by working with their manufacturing partner in a very legal and straightforward way that hundreds of businesses have done to obtain the materials they need, for basically all of history. And guess what? If demand is greater than supply, some other company can either outbid Tesla for the supply, or wait for more manufacturing to be built to increase the available supply. Just like any other product or material in any other market, ever.

      Oh, I forgot - we are talking about Tesla, so OMG evil! Bad! Almost as bad as Apple, because reasons!

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  3. Re:Environmental impact of this manufacturing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    They use giant sailboats to transport them from Japan to Seattle WA, and then they are carried by barrens of mules down to Fremont, CA

  4. Re:Environmental impact of this manufacturing by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    they are carried by barrens of mules down to Fremont, CA

    Tesla employees deserve more respect than that!

  5. Re:"hogging batteries" = booming sales? by grungeman · · Score: 2

    Looks more like production problems on Tesla's side, since they already had them when they were tinkering together the Model 3 launch batch. This was only a few hundred cars, so it cannot be due to huge demand. Even now it is extremely unlikely that Tesla ist anywhere near the output that they had planned for December, so if the Gigafactory should easily be able to deliver enough cells if it was running at full capacity.

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  6. So? by GerryGilmore · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Let's see: company (Tesla) has more need for materials furnished by a partner company(Panasonic), so orders more and partner company supplies the extra materials. Other companies WITHOUT existing supply contracts whine about being unable to buy batteries from partner company. Isn't this at some level how basic capitalism works? It's not like there aren't other battery suppliers and - yes! - demand is skyrocketing. Welcome to the real world.

  7. Re:This sucks! by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

    As Electrec notes, it's almost impossible that this report is correct. Model 3 uses 2170 cells, not the standard 18650s, while Model X and Model S have always used imported cells, so nothing has changed there.

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  8. Re:"hogging batteries" = booming sales? by Richard_at_work · · Score: 4, Interesting

    You can sell significant numbers of a product, beyond your wildest dreams, and still be losing money.

    Boeing has sold 1287 of its 787 Dreamliner series aircraft, has delivered 625 and was still losing money overall (as in deferred program debt was still rising) until earlier this year (when they managed a slight reduction). Boeing isn't forecast to make any actual profit on its current order book.

    In the commercial aviation world, 1000 sales of a large aircraft is a huge success, usually (see 777, 747, 767, A330). But then, usually, these programs have their production and R&D debt paid off in the first few hundred airframes....

    Tesla is in the same boat - massive (relatively) up front costs, coupled with significant production issues which means debt is still rising rather than being recouped.

    They will get there, but they aren't there yet.

  9. Re:"hogging batteries" = booming sales? by Krishnoid · · Score: 2

    1970's:
    Kid: Daddy, my new radio-controlled car won't run!
    Daddy: Batteries not included? What the hell is this?
    Kid: Daddy, you shouldn't swear.

    2017:
    Kid: Batteries not available? What the hell is this?
    Kid's kid: Seriously, what the fuck?
    Kid: Where'd you learn that kind of language?
    Kid's kid: Are you fucking serious?

  10. Re:Environmental impact of this manufacturing by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Informative

    What's the environmental impact of this battery manufacturing?

    Compared to extracting oil from the Alberta tar sands, the impact is modest. Lithium is extracted from salt flats and underground brine, which are not ecological hotspots. Cobalt is mostly a byproduct of open pit copper and nickel mining, and little mining is done specifically to extract cobalt.

    If they're being shipped from Japan to the US, then they'll have a higher carbon footprint due to being shipped across an ocean than batteries manufactured locally, no?

    Not really. Ocean transport is very efficient, and adds little to the carbon footprint of these vehicles.

    Are vehicles that use batteries like this truly more environmentally friendly

    Yes, by a big margin.

  11. Causing? by LordKronos · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Wait, so the claim is that Tesla could be CAUSING a shortage?

    How are they causing a shortage? By buying up all the batteries they can get.
    Why are they buying up batteries? To eliminate their manufacturing problems.
    What were the manufacturing problems they were having? They couldn't get enough batteries.

    Oh yeah, that makes total sense. It's not a battery shortage causing Tesla to buy up batteries....it's Tesla buying up batteries that is causing a shortage.

  12. Re:This sucks! by viperidaenz · · Score: 4, Insightful

    But the truth wouldn't generate a click bait headline

  13. "Could be" means "Is not" by viperidaenz · · Score: 2

    Journalists use language like that when they don't have any facts to back it up.
    The facts are Tesla no longer use the same sized batteries as other products, like laptops do, in their new models.

    I don't see how draining stockpiles of 18650 cells would help them manufacture their cars that require 2170 cells.
    A more likely story is that Panasonic has halted production of 18650 cells to manufacture 2170 cells instead, while keeping enough capacity to honor existing customer contracts.

    1. Re:"Could be" means "Is not" by Jonathan_S · · Score: 2

      The facts are Tesla no longer use the same sized batteries as other products, like laptops do, in their new models.

      I don't see how draining stockpiles of 18650 cells would help them manufacture their cars that require 2170 cells.
      A more likely story is that Panasonic has halted production of 18650 cells to manufacture 2170 cells instead, while keeping enough capacity to honor existing customer contracts.

      My understanding is that currently it is only the Tesla Model 3 that's using the larger 2170 cells. The Model S and X are sticking with the 18650 cell for the at least near term future. Having more (though smaller) cells per battery pack allows them a higher peak power output and hence better max acceleration.

      Telsa wouldn't want a drop in performance numbers on their flagship vehicles from switching battery cells. (I suspect if, down the line they do switch to 2170s for S and X it'll come at the same time as a pack capacity boost so there are still enough cells to keep the peak power output at least as high as the current battery packs)

      And since at the moment Tesla's selling more S and X models than 3s they might have caused a shortage is Panasonic's 18650s.

  14. Re:Environmental impact of this manufacturing by Rei · · Score: 3, Informative

    The environmental impact of shipping a tonne of batteries from east Asia is the same as the impact of shipping a tonne of steel from east Asia.

    And for the record: Model 3 SR is pretty much the same weight as the similar-sized, similar-accelerating BMW 330i. Model 3 LR isn't much heavier (and is faster).

    Lastly: life cycle assessments aren't conducted by guesswork and speculation. They're done in peer reviewed studies. For example.

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  15. Re:Environmental impact of this manufacturing by viperidaenz · · Score: 2

    No difference?
    If the raw materials are being mined in China, it;s not really going to make much difference if they're manufactured in Japan or USA, at the end of the day there is still a ship going across the Pacific Ocean.
    It could even have less impact, if the end product is lighter and/or smaller than the raw materials.

  16. Re:"hogging batteries" = booming sales? by Actually,+I+do+RTFA · · Score: 2

    Taking all the batteries and still slipping on production schedule actually aligns with painting Tesla a flop. That would be the limiting factor, and even with the world's supply of batteries they cannot produce what they've taken the cash to produce.

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  17. Re:Environmental impact of this manufacturing by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 5, Informative

    Ocean shipping is dirty as hell!

    Container ships burn high sulfur bunker fuel, which produces lots and lots of sulfates, which are nasty pollutants ... ON LAND. But at sea, the sulfates settle onto the surface of the sea, where they have a negligible effect since the ocean already contains quadrillions of tons of sulfur.

    Sulfur is a pollutant in the same way that salt is a pollutant: It depends on where you put it.

  18. Re: Environmental impact of this manufacturing by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The Daily Mail caring about the environment?

    They don't care. The whole point of the article is to promote environmental nihilism and apathy. If 16 ships pollute more than a billion cars, and wind turbines kill birds, and bicyclists run over endangered insects, then clearly everything is equally bad and nothing matters and readers can continue to drive their SUVs guilt free.

  19. Re:Environmental impact of this manufacturing by Aighearach · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Cobalt is mostly a byproduct of open pit copper and nickel mining, and little mining is done specifically to extract cobalt.

    While true, there is more to the story. 15% of US cobalt production is already from recycling. Also there is the Idaho Cobalt Project (ICP) that already has permits for a primary-source cobalt mine in Idaho, which should go online imminently. It is owned by a Canadian mining company. They're expecting 1500 tons/yr for 12.5 years.

    The most important thing though is that cobalt is totally recoverable, in the future most of it will come from recycling.

  20. Re:"hogging batteries" = booming sales? by WalksOnDirt · · Score: 2

    That 25% margin is just what Tesla claims. It takes no great insight to arrive at.

    Tesla computes gross margin differently than other auto makers. I'm not saying one is more correct than the others, but Tesla would barely squeak by on what to others would be a comfortable margin.

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  21. Re:Seeing these comments, I have just one observat by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

    So, I'm reading all these Slashdot comments, and just am amazed at one thing that wasn't even close to true even ten years ago.
    Not only do Republicans appear to hate the environment, they clearly hate basic capitalism too.

    Republicans have always, repeat always been against free market capitalism. They say they want small government, and for it to stay out of businesses' affairs, and then they pass assloads of laws designed specifically to give the advantage to one business or another. When they say they are against the Democrats interfering in the way businesses are operated, they mean that it's affecting their ability to do the same, not that they are opposed to it.

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