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California Poised To Hit 50 Percent Renewable Target a Full Decade Ahead of Schedule (cleantechnica.com)

An anonymous reader quotes a report from CleanTechnica: Every year, the California Energy Commission releases its Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) report, which gives details about the mix of energy experienced by all utilities within the state during the preceding 12 months. The report for this year, released in November, shows that all three of the state's investor-owned utilities -- Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas & Electric -- are projected to derive 50% of their electricity from renewable sources by 2020. That is a full decade ahead of schedule. PG&E reports it used 32.9% renewable energy in the past year. The figure for SoCal Edison was 28.2%. San Diego Gas & Electric led the pack with 43.2% renewable energy. Now that the 50% goal is within reach, California is looking ahead to its next milestone -- 80% renewables by 2050. "Once we get to about 50 percent, we're going to start to run into new challenges -- the second 50 percent will be trickier than the first 50 percent," Brown notes. Part of the challenge will be balancing the grid using new technologies to avoid the need for fossil fueled "peaker plants" to provide additional electricity when demand is high.

38 of 247 comments (clear)

  1. Do as the French do... by b0s0z0ku · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Run nuclear plants as peakers -- yes, it can be done with the right design.

    Nuclear isn't renewable, but it's a hell of a lot cleaner than fossil fools.

    1. Re:Do as the French do... by b0s0z0ku · · Score: 3, Insightful

      (and use pumped-storage hydro -- when water is available -- for load leveling as well)

    2. Re:Do as the French do... by b0s0z0ku · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Yes. Because Americans are scientifically ignorant cowards.

    3. Re:Do as the French do... by PopeRatzo · · Score: 4, Funny

      Yes. Because Americans are scientifically ignorant cowards.

      Before Donald Trump was elected, I might have argued with you about that. Now I'm not so sure.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    4. Re:Do as the French do... by hawguy · · Score: 2

      The US President has zero impact on moving technologies from the white board to real products and services. It is the legislative branch that create regulations or intrusive government meddling in technological advancements. If people would only redirect their complaints from the President towards Congress they my see some problems solved.

      So many people complained to their GOPcongressmen that they've cancelled town hall meetings to avoid meeting with their constituents.

      Complaining to congress has as much effect as as complaining about the president.

      One example of Congressional maleficence and public idiocy would be the DACA program. The DACA program was created by the previous administration by executive order. There is some controversy about the legality of the executive order that created the DACA program . Trump didn't cancel the program. He just sent the entire matter to Congress to be approve and codify by into law. But all you hear are people telling sob stories about being deported because of Trumps decision.

      While democrats overwhelmingly support the DACA program, even 40% of republicans don't believe it should be disbanded. Only 15% of the country thinks the DACA immigrants should be deported.

      And really how callous do you have to be to think that the right thing to do is to deport children that had no choice in the matter and were illegally brought to this country by their parents -- some have lived in the USA their entire lives and have no friends/family back in their home country, yet people still want to send them back "home". It seems akin to putting a child in jail because he was in the back seat of the getaway car when his dad robbed a bank.

    5. Re:Do as the French do... by blindseer · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Run nuclear plants as peakers -- yes, it can be done with the right design.

      Yes it can, but why bother? I get to this in a bit.

      Nuclear isn't renewable, but it's a hell of a lot cleaner than fossil fools.

      True, just the radioactive material in coal ash should be enough to get coal plants shut down. That's if coal had to meet the same standards as nuclear for disposing of the naturally occurring uranium in the ash. But if it's safe for them to toss it in a ditch then certainly nuclear reactors can do the same?

      So, why bother with nuclear as a supplier of peak demand? Let's consider that Germany discovered that for every 4 MW of wind power they need 3 MW of ready backup power. Let's be honest here and note that this is Russian natural gas for the most part. We don't have the same political ramifications for foreign natural gas in the USA as we produce sufficient quantities of it ourselves.

      We use natural gas because the capital expense is relatively low, about $30/MWh installed, but the fuel costs are relatively high, but still low enough that with a 30% capacity factor it's $105/MWh. Wind and nuclear are not too far apart in capital expense, wind at $70 and nuclear at $83. Wind though has a capacity factor of about 35% and nuclear at 90%.

      What happens though is that the costs for nuclear and wind do not rely on fuel, there's no fuel cost for wind and nuclear fuel cast is so small that it can realistically be ignored in the grand scheme. What keeps nuclear costs low is that this very high capital expense is offset by it's high capacity factor. I saw the math once and I forget the details on this output to cost curve but what was obvious is the less the nuclear power plant output the higher the cost.

      We can run nuclear at a 30% capacity factor like natural gas but then the cost to run it isn't $100/MWh anymore, it would at least triple. Much of the costs on a nuclear power plant exist whether it runs or not, so you run it as much as is possible to make back the investment in capital as quickly as possible.

      If you've got 4 GW of wind capacity, and 3 GW of natural gas capacity, then you can expect an average output of 2.5 GW or so. This works well so far because the costs average out to about $100/MWh. If you've got 4 GW of wind capacity, and 3 GW of nuclear to back it up, then try to run that at the same 2.5 GW average output to maximize wind usage, then your costs just went to $300/MWh.

      Here's a more realistic outcome, you dump your capital into all nuclear. The capital costs will actually be lower than then combined wind and natural gas, but the maximum load it can support would be greater. If you have a 2.5 GW average demand then install 4 GW of nuclear and be done. This would be met with 3, 4, or 5 common reactors on the same site, or spread out to 2 or 3 sites, each backing up the other. Getting more realistic there would probably be 3 GW of nuclear and 1 GW of natural gas so that if there was a major problem with the nuclear reactors then the natural gas could be used to shutdown, cool, and monitor the reactor. This could be blackout or brownout territory but highly rare, about as common as peak demand meeting a no wind situation if there was a reliance on windmills.

      Right now wind costs about 90% of nuclear power but it is unreliable. Even by spreading out the windmills and a "smart grid" wind will only produce 35% of it's installed capacity. Batteries don't change this, it only adds to the cost to gain back some reliability. The math gets complicated real quick on trying the right balance but it seems quite apparent that if there is a combination where we use current costs to compute this balance with wind and nuclear providing a majority of our electricity then wind is going to make almost non-existent contributions to keep costs low.

      I probably did a real shitty job explaining this. I've seen people that studied this do a presentation and the math looks real bad for wind

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    6. Re:Do as the French do... by vtcodger · · Score: 4, Informative

      Nuclear isn't renewable, but it's a hell of a lot cleaner than fossil fools.

      Yes nuclear doesn't release CO2, but >>>

      1. California's geology is not well suited to nuclear -- a patchwork of fault lines. At this time, no one knows where they all are, much less which are active. No one wants to build a multibillion dollar nuclear facility, then find out they've built on top of a blind thrust fault. (i.e. a fault with no surface indication).

      2. Current, proven designs are steam boilers that need lots of water. For the most part, California doesn't have lots of long term reliable water inland. There's lots of coastline of course, but virtually none of it looks to be guaranteed to be stable.

      3. The California culture is strongly antinuclear and costs will surely be exacerbated by endless lawsuits.

      4. Recent nuclear plants in the developed world have had MAJOR problems with cost and schedule.

      5. If you look at the historical costs of nuclear accidents, they show signs of having a highly skewed ("paretto" / "power-law") distribution. i.e. occasional industrial accidents whose costs can sanely be covered by an insurance pool ... and occasional catastrophic accidents with costs comparable to a war.

      My feeling, and you're surely free to disagree. The world can be powered by wind. solar and nuclear. But the nuclear part may genuinely be risky.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    7. Re:Do as the French do... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

      All this rationalization. Lets just take the real world examples;

      Germany 19% nuclear, 20% wind+solar.

      France, 70% nuclear, 5% wind+solar

      France CO2 emissions per capita and per Kwh are about 1/2 of Germany

      France's electricity costs are 0.169/kWh, Germany 0.306/kWh

      Case closed.

    8. Re:Do as the French do... by vtcodger · · Score: 2

      "And I don't like any nuclear design that can serve more than 5,000 houses."

      I think there's a subtle logical flaw there. There's not a lot of data, but what I've seen suggests that nuclear plant power output won't be a major variable in accident magnitude -- which is to say that a 30Mw facility supplying 5,000 houses (Numbers I got off the the Internet without a lot of checking) is about as likely to have a huge accident as a 1Gw power plant. If that's true, we'd want a few BIG power plants, not a lot of small ones.

      It'd be interesting to know. But maybe, it'd be better not to find out by the let's_try_it_and_see_what_happens method.

      --
      You can't see ANYTHING from a car, You've got to get out of the goddamned contraption and walk...Edward Abbey
    9. Re:Do as the French do... by KiloByte · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Humans + Nuclear power is just bad news.

      You mean, beside being the safest source of energy, even including those 1960s reactors still in use? And that's by quite a margin above renewables.

      If you count in the cost of externalities, it's also among the cheapest. For an iBooks-to-OPiPCs comparison, put a condom on every coal chimney and store both pollutants and CO2 forever (they don't decay with time like nuclear waste does) -- and only then we can talk about being fair.

      --
      The creatures outside looked from Alt-Right to Antifa; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
    10. Re:Do as the French do... by upuv · · Score: 2

      No they can't. A nuke plant takes days to ramp up electricity production. A nuke plant is not an instant on by any means.

      A Nuke plant is a base load provider not a peak provider. It is near impossible to design a fast ramp up nuke plant. As in with in 30 minutes.

      Gas and Hydro are near instantaneous power providers. Hydro being the fastest to provide power.

    11. Re:Do as the French do... by KiloByte · · Score: 2, Informative

      Costs you quoted include all the externalities that other sources of energy get to offload to human health, animal health and so on. Nuclear is the only one that is required to cover anything that could possibly have resulted from it, including a good heap of nuke-haters' paranoia.

      Wind doesn't require fuel (besides inefficiently mooching from a fusion reactor a few light minutes away), but requires maintenance (each turbine generates little power) and a lot of land. It also causes a lot of bird deaths and so on.

      And that is the reason people are building wind and not nuclear.

      Funny that -- after subsidies were lowered, suddenly 70% of wind generators in Poland produce a net loss, and that's just ongoing costs for already constructed turbines.

      --
      The creatures outside looked from Alt-Right to Antifa; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
    12. Re:Do as the French do... by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 2

      > How fast can you bring up a sanely designed nuclear plant?

      From zero takes days and days. From 75% takes about 24 hours, at least for common designs like PWR.

      > s of seconds are hydro and batteries. And I have my doubts about the

      Don't. There was a recent brownout sequence in Austrailia that just happened to occur days after the Tesla pack went online. It managed to stabilize the frequency in real time.

      The entire power industry is talking about this. They're using terms like "game changer" and "never the same again".

    13. Re:Do as the French do... by Maury+Markowitz · · Score: 2, Interesting

      > Color me unimpressed. It kicked in a few MW for a short period of time.

      You obviously don't work in the power industry.

      I assure you, this is *very* impressive. People have been talking about solutions to this problem since I was a kid. When they were still working on Shiva. Before I bought my Atari 400.

      > The question is whether Lion batteries can stabilize the South Australian grid for years on end without losing too much capacity

      LiIon, like most batteries, loses capacity when you have wild swings in stored energy. Going from 100% to 40% once is orders of magnitude worse than going from 80% to 60% three times, in spite of both examples using the same amount of energy.

      For uplift purposes you have rapid cycling around maybe 10% of capacity (the recent example was 1.5% IIRC), so the pack should last until we're all long dead.

      > convinced that if one were designing batteries for grid storage that Lithium-ion would be the technology you'd choose

      Holy, have you read *anything* about this?!

      The batteries in the SA system are NOT the same ones as the cars. They're a completely different chemistry designed specifically for cycling.

      > Sodium-Sulfur (NaS) batteries

      Ugh.

      NaS batteries will not happen. Ever. Its a terrible technology. Boiling sulphur is the description of Hell, not the description of a useful battery chemistry. No one is really working on it, nor ZEBRA, and even the flow batteries that people periodically raise are dead from any practical definition.

      This very second, the amount of money being spent on LiIon tech is something like 1000x the amount on all the others put together. There is no way any of those technologies will ever be able to compete.

  2. Re:At what cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Renewables get more than the ~$500bil coal gets every year from externalized healthcare costs?

  3. Seems they import a lot of electricity (1/3). by Fly+Swatter · · Score: 5, Interesting

    From Forbes: California's Growing Imported Electricity Problem "California now imports 33% of its electricity supply from fast growing neighbors". Looks like a numbers game to me, but what do I know.

    1. Re:Seems they import a lot of electricity (1/3). by homer1972 · · Score: 2, Funny

      Smoke and mirrors. I generate 100% of my energy for my house by shuffling my feet for static charge, where's my headline? (The other 99.9999999999999%) is imported)

    2. Re:Seems they import a lot of electricity (1/3). by interkin3tic · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Renewable energy is renewable energy whether it's in one state or another.

      One op-ed from a guy who is a professional promoter of natural gas says "California should really buy more natural gas," and you're willing to conclude California is running a gigantic scam?

      It's not like the source of the power is untraceable once it goes over the border, or CA is claiming the source of the power is a national security secret and just trust us it's much more expensive solar power, ignore that the power lines are running to coal fired power plants just over the border.

    3. Re:Seems they import a lot of electricity (1/3). by blindseer · · Score: 2

      About 22% of California's imported power comes from renewables

      Right, California buys expensive renewable energy which reduces it's availability from the open market. They can make this claim only because they paid above market rates. Which is fine by me, I don't live in California and so their buying of renewable energy means more cheap natural gas, hydro, and nuclear energy for me. This is especially insane since if the goal is to reduce CO2 output they'd consider hydro and nuclear as "green" energy too. Solar produces more CO2 per energy output than nuclear and hydro.

      How is that possible? How can solar have a larger carbon footprint than nuclear and hydro? This is because of things like the concrete anchors the solar panels sit on to keep from blowing away. Nuclear and hydro have a much larger CO2 impact from their much greater mass of concrete but they produce power day and night to offset this. Can this be improved in the future? Perhaps with lowering the CO2 released to produce concrete but then this process would also reduce the CO2 released in the concrete for the nuclear and hydro industry too. It will be hard for solar to come ahead on this.

      Running the state on wind and solar power will only be possible if they keep paying a premium to buy "green" energy from other states as they use cheaper nuclear, hydro, and natural gas, to meet their needs. This might make California feel good but if the rest of the nation is using hydro, nuclear, natural gas, and probably some wind that California didn't buy then we could have lower prices AND a lower CO2 output.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
  4. Made in UTAH. by Templer421 · · Score: 4, Informative

    California Electricity that is.

    There are several plants in the state that do nothing but make electricity for California.

    1. Re:Made in UTAH. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2

      > California Electricity is [made in Utah].

      So?

      California utilities still have to account for the source of the electricity that they use. If Utah sells PG&E power that comes from sources that are 50% coal-fired, then that impacts PG&E's EnviroScore or whatever.

  5. Improper use of hydro by Latent+Heat · · Score: 2

    Hydro needs to be used as a "peaker" to balance wind and solar. Using it for baseload let alone 100% is being anti-social.

  6. Re:At what cost? by Dutchmaan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "Subsidies for renewables, which far exceed those of fossil fuels, are used to make them appear cost effective."

    No, they are used so that people will have an incentive to adopt renewables, thus creating an economy of scale whereas renewables become commonplace. It's not just "for looks"

  7. Re:At what cost? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative

    Renewables are about 20% cheaper in the Middle East than natural gas, with zero subsidies. In certain parts of the USA, they are cheaper than fossil fuel, but most of the USA still needs subsidies, but it's estimated they won't be needed is 3-5 years. The cost per unit of generation for solar and wind is dropping about 10% per year.

  8. Re: At what cost? by Ichijo · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The incentive to adopt renewable technologies should come from them naturally being better from an economic standpoint (which they obviously aren't, in reality, thus the need for subsidies).

    Did you know that air pollution costs us up to $1,000 per person per year? Are you factoring that into the economics of renewables versus fossil fuels? (Probably not.)

    --
    Any sufficiently unpopular but cohesive argument is indistinguishable from trolling.
  9. Re: Price by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2
    The State of California does not consider hydro as a renewable resource:

    California, the second-largest U.S. hydroelectric producer, set goals for renewable energy sources in 2002 and 2011... But the state set a limit on the inclusion of hydropower. It allows utilities to count only the hydropower produced by smaller hydropower projects—those capable of producing 30 megawatts or less—toward the renewable mandate.

    Yep, only tiny hydro installs (typically private, on private land - good luck getting a permit to make your own hydro plant and flood some land deemed valuable to someone) count. The big hydro we have installed in California - about 99% of all of it - is NOT renewable per the State. So yeah - no hydro for us!

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
  10. Re:Price by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 5, Informative

    I call BS. Houston power starts at $0.087 per kWh. And power from PG&E for the Paso Robles area (central coast) start at $0.199 per kWh and go up. That's over twice as much. Using GasBuddy.com, gas in CA averages $3.07 per gallon, and in TX it is around $2.12 per gallon.

    Paso Robles, CA is around 1.44 times the national average for cost of living, Houston is at 1.02 - just about average for the US.

    Property tax rates in CA are fairly low compared to TX, but the average home in Houston is around $220,000. In Paso Robles, houses are twice that price. Sure, property taxes are a bit lower in CA, but we also have a 13.3% income tax compared to 0% for TX. If you make just about anything more than $10,000 per year, your property tax "savings" in CA are swallowed up by State income tax.

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
  11. Re:At what cost? by hawguy · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Keep in mind that medicine in the US is another industry that suffers from extreme price distortion due to various sorts of government intervention (such as excessive regulation, excessive education requirements, an artificially limited supply of practitioners, mandatory insurance that encourages excessive billing, and so on).

    So you agree that coal leads to health problems, and you don't have a problem with that, you only have a problem with the way health costs are accounted? A 6 year with asthma is fine as long as the cost to treat him is accounted for properly?

  12. Re:Generate as much clean energy as you can by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

    Actually, Statewide, average water use is roughly 50% environmental, 40% agricultural, and 10% urban. It's environmental concerns, like delta smelt and trying to maintain scenic rivers, that suck up half our State's fresh water supply.

    --
    Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
  13. Re: Price by hawguy · · Score: 4, Informative

    The State of California does not consider hydro as a renewable resource:

    California, the second-largest U.S. hydroelectric producer, set goals for renewable energy sources in 2002 and 2011... But the state set a limit on the inclusion of hydropower. It allows utilities to count only the hydropower produced by smaller hydropower projects—those capable of producing 30 megawatts or less—toward the renewable mandate.

    Yep, only tiny hydro installs (typically private, on private land - good luck getting a permit to make your own hydro plant and flood some land deemed valuable to someone) count. The big hydro we have installed in California - about 99% of all of it - is NOT renewable per the State. So yeah - no hydro for us!

    Large hydro plants typically come with huge amounts of environmental destruction - while today it would be unthinkable to flood Yosemite valley to use as a source of water and electricity, Hetch Hetchy Valley is said to rival Yosemite in beauty, yet it was flooded 100 years to to build O’Shaughnessy Dam.

    Smaller hydro projects can be built with less (or no) environmental destruction.

  14. Re:Price by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2, Informative

    Those rates assume 2000KWh of energy use/month - which is 6 months of my power usage in California since the climate is mild enough to need little heating or cooling.

    I haven't turned on heat or A/C since I've been here. Tonight's supposed to get chilly though, so I might relent. My utilities for the year project to be less than 20% of that in Houston, where you need A/C 10 months out of the year. Hell, the new houses going up in Houston don't even have windows that open.

    The main difference though is that when I woke up in the morning in Houston, and I walked out the door, I was in Houston. When I walk out the door here, I'm in paradise. I do miss two things from Houston though: barbecue and Christmas tamales.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
  15. Re:At what cost? by Kiuas · · Score: 5, Informative

    Keep in mind that medicine in the US is another industry that suffers from extreme price distortion due to various sorts of government intervention (such as excessive regulation, excessive education requirements, an artificially limited supply of practitioners, mandatory insurance that encourages excessive billing, and so on).

    Your entire post represents perhaps the most gigantic misunderstanding an/or willful misrepresentation of facts about health care I have ever read, and I've been discussing the matter for several years with people here and elsewhere as someone who works for the public health care sector of Finland.

    Let's get something clear:
    1. The US health care system is the most privatized model in advanced economies, you're the only OECD member state that still doesn't have universal coverage
    2. The US model is the most expensive model on the planet per capita, The combined tax+private spending is about 2-3 times that of most western economies, and even that's an understatement, because the per capita cost in your case divides the sum of total costs with all Americans, that is, including those who do not in fact have coverage. Therefore the total cost per citizen actually covered is even higher.

    We can, however, look at how pricing in these industries would react if the government intervention causing the current pricing distortions was to be removed. Healthcare costs would drop significantly due to increased competition and decreased overhead.

    You have it entirely backwards. It is the lack of universal public insurance model that's causing the costs to skyrocket. In here, the government has a vested interest in making sure the system is cost-effective, because it ends up being paid for by the tax payer in most cases (well, we do have private clinics and insurances but those are used only by a tiny fraction of the wealthy for mainly non-urgent procedures). For the government, health care is a cost, like the police and the fire department. The government also suffers if people are not treated, because high levels of untreated people lead to increased unemployment, loss of productivity and tax income.

    The current center-right government has been trying to open up our model and move it more towards the direction of an american model but maintain the universal nature, so that private hospitals could provide basic healthcare and the cost would be paid by the tax payer as it is now. The claim is that increasing private presence on the production side would increase efficiency and hence decrease cost, but this is blatantly false, which is why the bill has been slammed by every single expert analysis because data from the world, especially the US is clear that such a change will only increase costs as the private chains will start to charge overheads, which the public system obviously does not do, and because health care demand is inelastic. That is, increasing supply will not affect the demand, so building more (private) infrastructure to partially compete with the public one will only raise the costs for both the private and the public side, as each instance now treats only a part of the patients while having equal fixed costs. I wrote more about this and gave an actual example of how the inelasticity makes an entirely private market highly inefficient in keeping costs down for example here.

    Healthcare is one of those subjects in which the political discussion is often entirely detached from the scientific data we have on performance and cost-effectiveness. Again, all western nations besides the US have been running universal models - some based on a single payer model like here in the Nordics, others based on a mix of public and private insurance like in Germany - for over half a century and we've been doing so consistently with lower costs and equal or better treatment outcomes to that of the US. People live lon

    --
    "It is the business of the future to be dangerous" -Alfred North Whitehead
  16. Re: At what cost? by Barsteward · · Score: 2

    subsidies worked well for the fossil industry and they are still getting subsidies after 100 years of market development...

    --
    "The hands that help are better far than lips that pray." - Robert Ingersoll (1833-1899)
  17. Re:At what cost? by Freischutz · · Score: 2

    "Subsidies for renewables, which far exceed those of fossil fuels, are used to make them appear cost effective."

    No, they are used so that people will have an incentive to adopt renewables, thus creating an economy of scale whereas renewables become commonplace. It's not just "for looks"

    That statement should be in the past tense. Fossil fuel extraction costs are an upward trending proposition because of increasing extraction costs. Once in a while you get dips like you got with the shale bubble but on the whole the trend is upward. The price of renewable energy technology is on on a downward trend due to economy of scale, you don't have do drill through the earth's crust or dig away mountains to get sun and wind. We are now at a place where renewables are getting cheaper than coal and gas without subsidies. With battery technology undergoing an economy of scale and engineering revolution things do not look good for fossil fuels. Anybody buying a coal or gas fired power plant these days is being sold a pup.

  18. Re: Renewables? by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

    That's called biomass. But to use it usefully requires logging, something environmentalists hate.

    Logging is a big part of how we got into this mess regarding fires in California. First, logging the whole state. Then, treating the whole state as a tree farm, instead of letting some growth get old and fire resistant. The entire california coast from a place south of point sur is meant to be covered in redwoods, for example — they should be a thick, unbroken strip along the coast all the way up into Canada. The fact that we have removed that contiguous forest of old giants has actually altered the weather along the entire coastline. Redwoods actually trap fog on their leaf-like needles (or is that needle-like leaves?) which causes it to effectively rain beneath them. This not only provides water needed by the redwoods, but it has a significant effect on weather patterns in general. And hey, water vapor is a greenhouse gas...

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  19. Re: At what cost? by orlanz · · Score: 4, Insightful

    excessive regulation, excessive education requirements, an artificially limited supply of practitioners, mandatory insurance that encourages excessive billing

    This is very misleading and also wrong. The regulations and education requirements do bring up the price of healthcare but account for a very small part of the increase. Do you honestly think regulations are why those general drug makers are increasing prices by 500% in a short time?

    As for excessive billing... have you ever been billed for healthcare? Regulations have little to do if it. An uninsured person will get billed 4-5x the rate of an In Network insured patient. This was true before Obamacare. The insurance companies negotiated low rates but the end effect was to just raise prices on those without insurance.... the ones who can not afford the lower rate in the first place.

    Additionally billing for a overnight stay at a hospital is horrendous. No one can give you an estimate for costs without a 20% margin! They can give you a rough likely price but say you could see additional billings from other providers?!? You will get a heavily discounted bill for the room that you do not need to pay until the insurance partially covers it. Then the rest is on you. And that might be corrected again later ending in a credit or additional billing.

    Of course that is just the hospital. You came in through ER, another bill. Did the hospital use an external anesthesiologist, another bill. Did they use an external lab, another bill. Did you use an ambulance, another bill. Did your primary care physician come to check on you, another bill. Did a specialist come to check on you, another bill. Did they order special medication for you, another bill.

    Each of these bills go through the back and forth discount, partial payment , review, adjustment, invoice, etc process. Many times people do not know their bill for 3-5 months! None of this is regulations based. Because the system charges those who can not pay more, there is a lot of unpaid bills. No one wants to be the bill collector and aggregate/bundle the costs. So each spends resources billing and negotiating their part of the equation.

    Most readers are thinking that they do not see this complexity. You have the standard old plan of paying just the deductible. But this all happens in the background even for you and is handled by a complex network of healthcare payers and payees. People with HSAs will see a little behind the curtain. Those without proper insurance will see more and also deal with debt collectors who might contact them 6-12 months after service!

    That horrible inefficient system is further burdened by arcane IT systems. Each provider has different ways to collect. Some only accept bank draft, others mailed/called CC info, others will have a website with disfunctional forms, etc. The reference that they provided you to tie back to the service is the cryptic procedure/medicine, its provider ID code, your name, date of procedure, billing company name, date of bill. That is it, good luck keeping track of all the bills if you visit an ER 2x in one year.

    All these costs bundle into the cost of healthcare. And there is no incentive to reduce the complexity because you, the patient, do not get to choose the service nor provider nor know the bill up front. You are a captive customer.

    Imagine going into a Kroger (grocery store) and walking out, not getting billed. Then a month later the bill arrives. Then another for each of the non-Kroger brands you bought. And you get a 70% discount if you are a member. No other industry is this absolutely stupid in IT and billing.

    The industry has created a massive price distortion all by itself over the last 40 years. Congress knew about it and has been incompetent it addressing it for that long! Regulations have not really helped, but they are hardly a quarter of the pie. Insurance for all partially helps because you do not bill people for what they can not pay and avoid the resource wastage of that whole process!

  20. Re: At what cost? by Green+Mountain+Bot · · Score: 2

    20 minutes to get in and an hour for a bed - that's the long wait times that are the supposed downfall of the Canadian system? You're lucky to get in within an hour here, and it could be hours before you get a bed - if they don't "stabilize" you and kick you out first, leaving you thousands of dollars in debt for your trouble.

  21. Re: At what cost? by orlanz · · Score: 2

    20 minutes is NOTHING compared to the US. My dad, a friend, and I have been to the ER once over the last 5 years.

    -Dad: The forms took 30 minutes to fill out. We spent 6 hours going to different rooms getting checked out (4 tests). The nurses didn't know what test was already done and what he was waiting on. The only people who knew the status, was the front RECEPTIONISTS who were already busy accepting walkins. Half the testing stations asked & took down the same damn information over and over again. Everything was put into computers & tablets with complex forms. Every single thing was scanned in followed by scanning his wrist band.

    -Friend: Had a bad bike fall & minor cut that wouldn't stop bleeding. They checked him all in within 30 minutes. Bandaged him up and put cold press on it while he was waiting for stitches. After waiting 2 hours on a bed in a cold hallway, he stopped one of the nurses to get an ETA. Another hour later, he just left and went to another ER further away where they fixed him up in 2 hours. He still got a huge bill from the first ER that equated to $250/hour.

    -Me: I had a nose bleed that wouldn't stop. Clinic said to go to ER. I knew one a bit further away but was rarely packed. Took 30 minutes to get a bed. There were maybe two other patients. Got pretty good service compared to most places. Released me after IVs and 4 hours of monitoring and a small prescription. Bill was roughly $300/hour. The clinic was $155 for the entire checkup.

    ER is very fast if you have a life threatening emergency. But once you are stable (ie: still have that bullet in you), you might as well use your cell to find a doctor who will take care of you and walk out. The ER will just forget about you.

    And honestly, it is not the ER's fault. I don't blame them. All the specialists I saw, knew exactly what they were doing. They knew the machines, and got people out very quickly. It was the receiving, discharge, and waiting overhead between tests that was unbearable. They are just busy. Everything in the US gets sent to ER. None of the above would need an ER in other countries. About 1/3 of what clinics do can be done at home via first aid. After the xrays and basic prescription stuff, they pretty much tell you to go to ER unless you can wait 1-2 weeks for a doctor or a referral to go to a specialist in 2-4 weeks.

    And all the IT systems seemed geared toward billing. Or more accurately, provide all the reasoning, time, cost, and usage of everything so that the evidence speaks for itself when someone disputes. Its a colossal waste of resources. It hardly seems to help the doctors or nurses. They just tab or scroll over to the memo section and see the comments & actions taken thus far and add their own.