China's Shanghai Sets Population at 25 Million To Avoid 'Big City Disease' (theguardian.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report: China's financial hub of Shanghai will limit its population to 25 million people by 2035 as part of a quest to manage "big city disease," authorities have said. The State Council said on its website late on Monday the goal to control the size of the city was part of Shanghai's masterplan for 2017-2035, which the government body had approved. "By 2035, the resident population in Shanghai will be controlled at around 25 million and the total amount of land made available for construction will not exceed 3,200 square kilometres," it said. State media has defined "big city disease" as arising when a megacity becomes plagued with environmental pollution, traffic congestion and a shortage of public services, including education and medical care. But some experts doubt the feasibility of the plans, with one researcher at a Chinese government thinktank describing the scheme as "unpractical and against the social development trend."

Comments

Just making more cities

[jbmartin6]

So all that will happen is there will be another city right across the street, which is managed separately. This already exists to a point in the way the separate districts are managed. But it is unclear why they think this would reverse the overall social and economic trends which are pushing growth in Shanghai.

Re:Why 25 Million?

[BlazeMiskulin]

This is almost certainly referring to "inside the ring road", meaning within the actual city limits. Provincial Shanghai is not only growing, but is expanding its metro system to nearby cities, and has been looking to officially annex one or two of the nicer nearby cities.

A precursor to China's future problems?

[MtViewGuy]

Let's face it. Those who think China can replace the USA as the next superpower don't realize China has two issues they have to deal with:

1. Feeding, clothing and sheltering around 1.7 billion people--around 20% of Earth's human population.
2. A massive air and water pollution problem that is already affecting the health of many Chinese.

It's these issues that could result in health issues so gigantic that it could bankrupt that country within 20-25 years. This article is symptomatic of what will soon happen to China down the road.

Re:A precursor to China's future problems?

[blind biker]

1. Feeding, clothing and sheltering around 1.7 billion people

Luckily, China has 1.7 billion people that can take care of that issue pretty well.

Re: A precursor to China's future problems?

[Miamicanes]

The pollution problem can be 80-99% solved with 25 years of sensible regulation. People forget that 50 years ago, cities like Pittsburgh & Cleveland were polluted as badly as China's cities are today. The rivers in northeast Ohio used to be ORANGE in some places, and the whole area had a perpetual "burning" smell, even on days when the pollution wasn't (as) visible. There were times when the pollution in Pittsburgh was *so* bad, the street lights came on mid-afternoon. Apparently, the Cuyahoga River through Cleveland actually *caught fire and burned* sometime in the 70s.

Now, the pollution is basically gone. It didn't happen overnight, but the difference between mid-20th-century and early-21st-century ne Ohio & western Pennsylvania is pretty dramatic.

Re:A precursor to China's future problems?

[Kjella]

1. Feeding, clothing and sheltering around 1.7 billion people--around 20% of Earth's human population.

This is just stupid Goldilocks talk, we get that a lot on /. from people with no arguments... the nations in Europe are too small. China is too big. The US is different from everyone else and just right. Bovine excrement.

2. A massive air and water pollution problem that is already affecting the health of many Chinese.

Life expectancy is 76 years, far above the world average of 71.5 years and trailing the US by <3 years. China's GDP/capita is now around the world average, half the world is poorer than China and in total they're second only to the US. They have a huge net export ($500,000 million/year) and very low national debt (41% compared to 106% in the US). Basically they're already in good health and have a massive unused economic muscle they could use to buy polluting goods from others, create greener tech, subsidize greener tech, levy taxes on polluting goods they produce and so on.

Truth is that China is far from worst in class: Smog-cloaked Delhi looks with envy at Beijing's cleaner air. Not only particulates, but China's Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Drop, India's Grow Over Last Decade. Those are the two biggest local pollution issues. Their total energy consumption and CO2 emissions are growing but that's a global problem that won't more adversely affect China than anyone else. If you think any of these are "collapse of China" class problems you're wildly delusional.

Re:A precursor to China's future problems?

[LynnwoodRooster]

No, the big challenge facing China is the coming generation (35 to 15) where single child families were the legal rule. You'll have four grandparents, and two parents to support for every worker. Massive population implosion. Given the poor social benefits of China (essentially non-existent), you're going to find a lot of children working themselves to death and still not be able to take care of their grandparents and parents.

Limiting city development

[Guppy]

Putting a cap on population growth is essentially what the certain areas of California have done, although at a much smaller endpoint.

Under typical historical circumstances, the concentration of economic activity would have led to high-density buildings and eventually skyscrapers and such, followed by construction of the systems to handle the higher density, such as subways. However, restrictions on construction in and around the Bay Area have locked most areas into low-density development. This restricts the resident population to either incumbent residents that bought in the past, or higher-earning newcomers who can afford the exorbitant housing costs. Infrastructure limitations also limit the size of the non-resident worker population that can migrate in/out on a daily basis.

Either way, it's an interesting social experiment in squeezing city-like economic activity into a suburb-like layout.

Re: Why 25 Million?

[Miamicanes]

Tokyo is vast, but its average population density is comparable to Los Angeles (i.e., nothing to sneeze at, but hardly Mumbai or Lagos). Out beyond the urban core, Tokyo is a seemingly-endless sprawling ocean of single-family homes with islands of greater density where a village center used to be before Tokyo swallowed it whole & kept growing.

Re:You underestimate the Chinese government

[LynnwoodRooster]

Chinese citizens don't own land.

Could have stopped right there. No one owns land in China, the best you can get is a 70 year lease on the land. You may own your apartment, but the land underneath? That's a lease.

Re:Why 25 Million?

[HornWumpus]

TsingTao is good beer.

About 20 years ago I tried another Chinese beer, SingHa (Almost the same anglicised name as the Thai malt liquor). It wasn't good, mentioned it to Chinese coworkers, was told. 'That's made in Shanghai with Shanghai city water, never drink that again, it will give you cancer.' They were surprised it could legally be imported to the USA.

Shanghai water issues have been unmanageable for a long time.