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Some Hopeful Predictions for 2018 (nbcnews.com)
NBC asked 15 "top science and tech leaders" for their predictions for 2018. Despite arguments that technology has "created a monster," one anonymous reader sees their answers as a reason for hope:
NBC notes the detection of gravitational waves in 2017 (predicted almost a century ago by Einstein) and the creation of genetically modified human embryos. And a professor of molecular medicine at The Scripps Research Institute points out that in 2018, more than 10 different medical conditions are now also moving forward in gene-editing clinical trials, including rare eye diseases, hemophilia, and sickle cell anemia. He predicts that in 2018, deep machine learning "will start to take hold in the clinic, first in ways to improve diagnostic accuracy and efficiency of doctors' workflow."
Former ICANN head Esther Dyson predicts we'll also begin using big data not only to reduce healthcare costs, but also social problems like unemployment, depression, and crime. "With big data, and more data available through everything from health records and fitness apps to public data such as high school graduation rates and population demographics, we are increasingly able to compare what happens with what would have happened without a particular intervention...with luck, some communities will lead by example, and policy-makers will take note."
The head of the atmospheric science program at the University of Georgia notes that already, "We now have technology in place to provide significant lead time for landfalling hurricanes, potentially tornadic storms, and multi-day flood events." And Dr. Seth Shostak, the senior astronomer at the SETI Institute, predicts that in 2018 "it's possible that a replacement for Pluto will be found," while an astrophysicist at the American Museum of Natural History adds that in 2018 the European Space Agency's Gaia Mission will determine "distances to over a billion stars and velocities for several million," creating "an exquisitely detailed 3D map of our home galaxy."
Former ICANN head Esther Dyson predicts we'll also begin using big data not only to reduce healthcare costs, but also social problems like unemployment, depression, and crime. "With big data, and more data available through everything from health records and fitness apps to public data such as high school graduation rates and population demographics, we are increasingly able to compare what happens with what would have happened without a particular intervention...with luck, some communities will lead by example, and policy-makers will take note."
The head of the atmospheric science program at the University of Georgia notes that already, "We now have technology in place to provide significant lead time for landfalling hurricanes, potentially tornadic storms, and multi-day flood events." And Dr. Seth Shostak, the senior astronomer at the SETI Institute, predicts that in 2018 "it's possible that a replacement for Pluto will be found," while an astrophysicist at the American Museum of Natural History adds that in 2018 the European Space Agency's Gaia Mission will determine "distances to over a billion stars and velocities for several million," creating "an exquisitely detailed 3D map of our home galaxy."
You may be disappointed...
But actually open ended discussion articles like this often produce some of the best comments.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
"With big data, and more data available through everything from health records and fitness apps to public data such as high school graduation rates and population demographics, we are increasingly able to compare what happens with what would have happened without a particular intervention...with luck, some communities will lead by example, and policy-makers will take note."
Or we could take this data, selectively pull out what supports our political beliefs, to reinforce them and tell others they are wrong.
For Mengele, and the researchers who would use the blossoming gene editing technology to the detriment of humankind, the enemy of their goals is the dissemination of the newest discoveries. Much like nuclear age technology and weaponization, the only way to keep it potentially safe is to achieve a level of balance among competing and cooperating factions (nation-states).
Tribalism, our predisposition to conformity, and an innate distrust of those who are different are best overcome by balanced detente, at least in our present state of evolution as a species.
Take heart. We've had the ability to end human existence on earth for 70+ years, and it hasn't happened yet!
Happiness in intelligent people is the rarest thing I know.
Ernest Hemingway
the Alien spaceships they've been hiding all the decades.
If not that, 2018 will show a trickle of news-stories that will help sink in the notion to the general public that there's something out there, but as long as there's stuff on Netflix and breakfast-TV, people can carry on...
Why do you think there's been this recent surge of superhero films?
In 2001, when "24" showed a black POTUS, I read a story where somebody was quoted with the sentence "The American public can only imagine what they already saw on TV".
They could only elect a black president because they saw it on TV.
Windows 2000 - from the guys who brought us edlin
No we haven't. We don't even have it now.
We have the ability to bring an abrupt end to modern civilization as we know it for every human being on the planet, and to render life on this planet far more harsh for the survivors for the next several generations, but we don't have the technology ability to end all of human existence ourselves.
The only thing that has any chance of doing that is either if technology which does not yet exist gets discovered, or if we get struck by a large enough chunk of rock that we don't currently know about.
File under 'M' for 'Manic ranting'
The NYT and Atlantic were just reporting on a 65-year study from the Congressional Research Office (in 2012, Congress was controlled by Republicans).
That's not what history has shown. The study you cited was based on the Canadian economy. The data is significantly different here in the US.
http://www.epi.org/publication...
You are welcome on my lawn.
No we haven't. We don't even have it now.
Yeah we do. All we have to do is use nuclear demolitions to alter the orbit of a near earth asteroid. It doesn't have to be a big one, 10-20 miles across. I believe there is a big one swinging around in 2040 that should do it.
If we really wanted to get a gold star we could drop a bigger one and liquefy the crust of the planet. That would exterminate all life on earth right down to the deep bacteria.
I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.
The Laffer curve is obviously true. Consider. If you have zero taxes you collect zero revenue. If you have 100% taxes you also collect zero revenue because people won't work for free. In between the two there's a curve where tax revenues increase up to some level and then begin to fall.
When Gordon Brown put the top personal tax rate up from 45% to 50% HMRC - the UK equivalent of the IRS - did a study of the 50% tax rate in the UK with Laffer curves in it.
http://webarchive.nationalarch...
Also if you percentage of income tax paid by the top decile vs the top personal tax rate you can see a very Laffer curve like effect
https://imgur.com/zaeEh
(more details here
https://pastebin.com/JU3exgXL )
Here's one for just the Nordic countries. The argument is that they are very comparable because they are so similar. Firstly culturally, particularly the Scandinavian ones. Secondly the share of market income by the richest decile is quite similar.
https://i.imgur.com/q5WNJ.gif
It is not true that the actual corporate tax rate in the US is higher than the other OECD countries. It's a canard, as in lie, as in bogus.
No it's not and I linked to OECD data to prove it.
And saying 'well the effective tax rate is lower' is not a refutation. I'm sure big corporations do all sorts of deals to reduce their effective tax rate in the US - they shop around the states and pick the one who offers the best incentives.
However if you start a new corporation you get hit with the headline rate, until you grow large enough to corrupt the system, go bust or move your business overseas. Which is why 35% corporate taxes are a bad idea.
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
that is not the only thing that will be engineered, don't be naive.
how about designer babies, tall, blond haired and blue eyed and white skinned, because that's who gets ahead?
how about a bred warrior caste, with strength and the psychology to follow orders without question?
how about a bred corporate cube farm droid worker?
how about infertile males, the same as mosquitoes in malaria reducing experiments, to make the undesirable minorities fade away?
etc. etc.
someone will do these things, they will be done.
It increases the wealth of the top fraction of a percent, and degrades the wealth of everyone below that.
And yet, if you read the links I posted here
https://pastebin.com/JU3exgXL
That last ratio is (share of total taxes paid of richest decile)/(share of market income by richest decile). You can actually make an argument that the rich in the US - which has lower personal tax rates than the UK pay more of their fair share. Similarly the UK has lower personal tax than Sweden, and yet rich people pay more of their fair share.
I.e. on a plausible model of fairness US>UK>Sweden even though in terms of personal tax rates Sweden>UK>US.
And the Laffer curve hasn't been refuted - the HMRC for example use it, and you'd expect them to know what they're talking about.
What is disputed is Taxable Income Elasticity which determines what shape the curve is. If you search the HMRC pdf I linked to for 'Laffer' you can see what happens to the curve as TIE varies and they also make some progress on determining the TIE for the UK and thus the optimal top tax rate. Basically that report was instrumental in the case for reducing the top personal tax rate from 50% back to 45% because a 50% tax was generating extra revenue.
And of course in France they experimented with high tax rates and then eventually rolled them back.
The Guardian is far left and supported high taxes on the rich but even they had to admit it didn't raise money and that's why it was dropped
https://www.theguardian.com/wo...
Finance ministry studies showed that despite all the publicity, the sums obtained from the supertax were meagre, standing at €260m in 2013 and €160m in 2014, and affecting 1,000 staff in 470 companies. Over the same period, the budget deficit soared to €84.7bn.
The decision to drop the tax is a personal blow for Hollande and only one of a number of government U-turns since he was elected, fuelling criticism that he is indecisive and lacking presidential authority.
And if you look at the data I posted it's actually rather obvious that the US has personal taxes about right and that higher taxes than that will reduce revenue.
What it didn't have right was corporation tax, at least until the recent GOP tax cut.
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
I looked up the asteroid, 2011 AG5, and its only 140 meters wide. It would make a nice hole but would be far from the Armageddon level event that I thought it would.
But I'm still going to dis-agree with you. The Chicxulub event was only 10 to 15km across but it wipped out 75% of the critters on earth above a certain body weight. We naked apes are well inside that body weight.
Altering the orbit of a body doesn't take much. You ether have to change is energy or its mass. Technically we have changed the orbit of every planet in the solar system by some tiny amount. Setting off enough explosives on the correct rocks can place them on a impact course. Granted it might take years before the actual event but it can be done.
Of course if we where damn determined to eradicate all life on earth we would probably use more than one rock. So it can be done, just not easily
I read at +2. If your post doesn't reach that level I will not see or respond to it.