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Analysts Expect Tesla To Miss Its First 2018 Model 3 Production Target (usnews.com)
schwit1 shares a report from U.S. News & World Report: In October, Tesla reported that it produced 220 Model 3 vehicles in the third quarter. CEO Elon Musk had previously said the company would produce more than 1,600 Model 3s by September. Loup Ventures analyst Gene Munster isn't the only analyst to doubt Tesla's fourth-quarter Model 3 production. KeyBanc analyst Brad Erickson reduced his fourth-quarter Model 3 production target by two-thirds, cutting it from 15,000 to only 5,000. According to Munster, Tesla investors may need to wait several more quarters for the Model 3 story to play out. "We predict a breakout year for the Model 3 in 2019 which means, until then, other elements like solid Model S and X production numbers, increasing energy deployments like the South Australia installation, and future vehicles (Roadster, Semi, Model Y, and pickup truck) will stoke investor optimism," he says.
schwit1 adds: "Elon Musk promised Tesla would produce 500,000 Model 3 sedans in 2018 and has accepted refundable $1,000 deposits on nearly that many. At current production rates, it will be years before pre-orders are filled. The Model 3's good will and good reviews won't matter much if Tesla can't ramp up production, which even bulls like Munster believes is running at least a year late."
Well, I guess if we don't expect production rates to improve, then Elon is up Musk creek without a paddle.
But I think it's a little early to be basing the whole year's production on "current production rates".
Ramping up production like this to the required volume is hugely capital intensive, even when you are just producing a single model, which is what they should be concentrating completely on. They will likely have to cut many corners, and given the build quality of many Model S and X cars they have already been doing so.
The trouble is, the Model 3 is a mass market car that will need to work and need to be spot on in every respect. Those who would be looking to buy a Model 3 in the heavily competitive market it operates in are not Tesla fanboys who will cut them slack. It's a completely different ballgame.
Elon must have missed that lecture in Marketing 101
We urgently need Rei to inform the world that this is not really a bad thing and how fabulous Tesla is actually doing. BTW the Tesla, when it arrives, will be the best car evar!!!
I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
Underdeliver and convince your investors to double down to prove their investment will succeed. You get at least twice as much money and can thus expand your operation that much further.
Continue doing this and eventually you will financially control the world, even if all of your projects are still behind schedule, because you are just growing another industry.
Tesla hasn't met a timeline, target, or marketing promise in their entire career, why start now?
Isn't how it works, you fire employees and expect more production.
It would be a shock if Telsa EVER made a target OR if they made a profit.
BTW, no one ever brings up the problems that a self-driving care faces in winter like conditions that most people face right now. Watch how wonder the vehicle drives with no lines on the roads, not even a road to see as it is covered in ice and snow. WHOOOPS. It doesn't. lol
A stock analyst (i.e. Munster, who is quoted in the summary) saying some Tesla action will "stoke investor optimism" means nothing... there are no concrete facts here, it's just feelings. There is no rationality to the Tesla's stock (TSLA) stock price being valued many times more than the company assets, and many times higher than the stock prices of established competing car companies, which have comparable cars to the Model 3 on the market right now (e.g. Nissan, Volkswagon, Chevy, etc.) while Tesla still struggles with production. I honestly hope Tesla survives and thrives as a company, but stock analysts aren't providing any useful information here.
No, they are not Tesla fanboys and they are not going to be appeased by a downloadable Easter egg.
A friend or two that has the Model 3 is very much a Tesla fan. And so it will be for some time to come - or did you forget the pre-order lines just to lay down $1k for a car that would not be delivered for a year or two? None of the buyers for a long time is going to be anything but a die-hard Tesla fan. When they clear out pre-orders two or three years hence, then you can talk about the remaining buyers actually treating Tesla on an equal footing.
Range even when using air con and heating, charging stations, the time it takes to charge versus filling up (whatever did happen to those quick replace batteries?), build quality, everything has to be spot on perfect.
Another responder already talked about this, but I just wanted to add on - why? Why does it have to be "perfect" when no-one else is? A lot of little flaws can be made up for in big design choices - like that sweeping all clear roof. Some videos have already pointed out model3 body panels do not have a perfect fit, but it does not matter because in so many other ways the car is doing an excellent job already compared to any other car someone might be thinking of.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
.... is the main reason I did not reserve a Tesla 3 (after waiting in line). I wasn't about to wait YEARS for a vehicle that could in the end be out of date by the time I receive it.
They claimed that the vehicle could be delivery by Dec 2018 (i.e., 20+ months wait), but as you can see, Tesla has NEVER delivered in time and is always around 2 year behind schedule. With so many companies going into production (for EVs) in the next couple of years, it was just plain stupid to make the investment without any guarantee that the vehicle would be delivered within a reasonable time.
Tesla has survived until this day by missing just about every target they ever set and making pie-in-the-sky announcements to divert attention every time that happens.
The thing about Tesla is, they have a track record of delivering.
Yes they deliver really late. But that does not matter to the people investing in them and buying from them, because they have already baked in the understanding of these delays. When someone was waiting in line for a model 3, they knew it may well be years before they get the car. But they do not care, as long as it is eventually be delivered - and since Tesla is indeed producing model 3's, it eventually will be. That is enough.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Tesla delivered only 1,550 Model 3 vehicles in the Q4, lower than the lowest "analyst" guidance. But as they say, "Hope springs eternal". http://www.latimes.com/busines... [latimes.com]
May be the CEO saying "it is in production hell" clued them on to it? may be? Just saying ...
sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
The next quarter, expected production is 15,000, though potentially only 5,000 will be made.
Looks to me that Tesla are less than 3 months behind schedule. So why the anxiety?
in so many other ways the car is doing an excellent job already compared to any other car someone might be thinking of
For years I dreamed of a day where I was forced to swipe thru a fucking iPad to open the bloody glove box. That day is now.
You do realize that musk aggressively avoids all attempts at code audits and is stonewalling all attempts at a consensus standard for safety. Just as he blew off space safety standards and got congress to waive standards with spaceX, he will blow of all safety standards for autonomy in cars, but will fall catastrophically when the insurance companies rip him apart in court.
Tesla is most likely not going to survive as an independent car maker.
Maybe they'll make it as a niche luxury brand, but unless the miraculously start producing, they are going to be crushed by the real carmakers.
All the majors have EVs and hybrids on the way, and they can actually build them across the globe and in large quantities.
I think they are going to be bought up after their stock crashes, or turn into a battery company. Making money on cars is a very tough business.
This is a poor repeat of "Apple" complete with fawning fanbois competing and comparing the size of their compensating batteries.
At least Apple had a revolutionary product. Tesla is just wrapping an old product in a shiny package. I'd take a 1980 Renault Lectric Leopard in good condition over a Tesla-3 any day of the year.
The more crap they pack in the more there is to break.
The only winner here is Musk who's laughing all the way to the bank with the money Obammer gave him to pull this ruse over the American people.
It is clear the only winners here will be established automakers like BMW, Merc and dare-I-say-it, GM and Ford who come out of this better off. Tesla will be a footnote like Tucker. But this time only by their own hand, folly and hubris; and not by the collusion of the automakers.