Analysts Expect Tesla To Miss Its First 2018 Model 3 Production Target (usnews.com)

schwit1 shares a report from U.S. News & World Report: In October, Tesla reported that it produced 220 Model 3 vehicles in the third quarter. CEO Elon Musk had previously said the company would produce more than 1,600 Model 3s by September. Loup Ventures analyst Gene Munster isn't the only analyst to doubt Tesla's fourth-quarter Model 3 production. KeyBanc analyst Brad Erickson reduced his fourth-quarter Model 3 production target by two-thirds, cutting it from 15,000 to only 5,000. According to Munster, Tesla investors may need to wait several more quarters for the Model 3 story to play out. "We predict a breakout year for the Model 3 in 2019 which means, until then, other elements like solid Model S and X production numbers, increasing energy deployments like the South Australia installation, and future vehicles (Roadster, Semi, Model Y, and pickup truck) will stoke investor optimism," he says. schwit1 adds: "Elon Musk promised Tesla would produce 500,000 Model 3 sedans in 2018 and has accepted refundable $1,000 deposits on nearly that many. At current production rates, it will be years before pre-orders are filled. The Model 3's good will and good reviews won't matter much if Tesla can't ramp up production, which even bulls like Munster believes is running at least a year late."

Comments

Of Course

[segedunum]

Ramping up production like this to the required volume is hugely capital intensive, even when you are just producing a single model, which is what they should be concentrating completely on. They will likely have to cut many corners, and given the build quality of many Model S and X cars they have already been doing so.

The trouble is, the Model 3 is a mass market car that will need to work and need to be spot on in every respect. Those who would be looking to buy a Model 3 in the heavily competitive market it operates in are not Tesla fanboys who will cut them slack. It's a completely different ballgame.

Re:Of Course

[green1]

Range even when using air con and heating, charging stations, the time it takes to charge versus filling up (whatever did happen to those quick replace batteries?), build quality, everything has to be spot on perfect.

And here's one of the reasons Tesla is in a segment with zero competition, they're the only automaker that has actually figured that part out. And until another company comes along with an actual long-distance charging network of fast-chargers we're not going to see any actual competition to Tesla.

As for what happened to quick replace batteries, the Tesla model S has them, and they ran a trial, nobody cared. Quick replace batteries have never been a good idea, they simply don't provide any benefit at all over a reasonable fast-charge Network, and add an awful lot of complications and expense. In fact the only reason Tesla did them at all was because California gave extra CARB credits for them at the time. Not because they were a good idea.

Difference is they produce real product

[SuperKendall]

Tesla has survived until this day by missing just about every target they ever set and making pie-in-the-sky announcements to divert attention every time that happens.

The thing about Tesla is, they have a track record of delivering.

Yes they deliver really late. But that does not matter to the people investing in them and buying from them, because they have already baked in the understanding of these delays. When someone was waiting in line for a model 3, they knew it may well be years before they get the car. But they do not care, as long as it is eventually be delivered - and since Tesla is indeed producing model 3's, it eventually will be. That is enough.