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China Plans To Kill Most of the World's Bitcoin Mining Operations (bloomberg.com)

The Chinese government will end bitcoin mining operations in the country in the coming months in a move that could have a massive impact on the price of the world's biggest digital currency. From a report: China has been a central player in the development of bitcoin in recent years, but Beijing has spent the last six months cracking down on the cryptocurrency industry -- shutting down local exchanges and banning initial coin offerings. Leaked documents suggest the Chinese government plans an "orderly exit" for bitcoin mining operations in the coming weeks and months. In the documents, issued to the local offices of the internet-finance regulator, authorities were instructed to force mining operations out of business using measures linked to electricity pricing, land use, tax and environmental protection.

38 of 261 comments (clear)

  1. Major impact on the price by jrumney · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Given that bitcoin relies on mining to certify transactions, I suspect that the direction of impact could be rather surprising to some of those who believe in scarcity driven theories of economics.

    1. Re:Major impact on the price by RobinH · · Score: 3, Informative

      If the price of a transaction goes up, that would bring the price of bitcoin down (makes it more expensive to use, and therefore worth less).

      --
      "I have never let my schooling interfere with my education." - Mark Twain
    2. Re:Major impact on the price by TheRealMindChild · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The biggest, and maybe only problem that will arise will be the difficulty being too high when they shut down the farms, leading to a period of slow block solves until the difficulty adjusts. The network will work just fine without the chinese mining farms

      --

      "When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Make life take the lemons back!" -- Cave Johnson
    3. Re:Major impact on the price by Kierthos · · Score: 2

      Yeah, within the last 24 hours, Bitcoin's price dropped over $2000 and has recovered about $800 of that (so down about $1200), and that was probably based in part on the news from Microsoft.

      I'm fully expecting another decent drop once enough people realize the ramifications of this.

      --
      Mr. Hu is not a ninja.
  2. Re:Finally! by slew · · Score: 2

    E-Coin will take over.

    Which means the dark army wins... You think these are related? ;^)

  3. Ain't no such thing as an orderly exit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Ain't no such thing as an orderly exit from a bubble. Bubbles are driven by speculative demand, people trying to make a profit by selling it to others for higher prices. People ain't in it to buy and hold. So there's going to be no price stabilizing until the speculators leave the market.

      The slope of the price curve is going to be high on the upswing or the downswing. A government has two choices: inject money into the market, pumping it up, again attracting speculators. Or standing back and letting it reach organic market value.

  4. Bitcoin hyped up disaster by Eravnrekaree · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Wasn't bitcoin always one big cluster due to the fact it eventually takes the power output of nuclear plants just to mine new coins. An activity which consumes vast physical resources for no tangible benefit, which makes the interest rates of the banking system look very reasonable in comparison. I am sure that the fact that it consumes vast resources and stressing infrastructure on something with no tangible value to society is a part of the reason China is taking it off line. A lot of hype over a fundamentally broken model, that is really not a currency anyway, but a wildly fluctuating and unstable mess, any real currency that acted this way would be a laughing stock.

    1. Re:Bitcoin hyped up disaster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      China has a problem with it because they devalued their Yen on purpose which screwed over the savings accounts of the Chinese. So in response a lot of Chinese went to Bitcoin for their savings instead of to Mother China. Mother no likey so much you not dependent on her teat.

    2. Re:Bitcoin hyped up disaster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Wasn't bitcoin always one big cluster due to the fact it eventually takes the power output of nuclear plants just to mine new coins. An activity which consumes vast physical resources for no tangible benefit, which makes the interest rates of the banking system look very reasonable in comparison. I am sure that the fact that it consumes vast resources and stressing infrastructure on something with no tangible value to society is a part of the reason China is taking it off line. A lot of hype over a fundamentally broken model, that is really not a currency anyway, but a wildly fluctuating and unstable mess, any real currency that acted this way would be a laughing stock.

      Laughing stock? You say this as if the cost to sustain the USD isn't measured in the trillions.

    3. Re:Bitcoin hyped up disaster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

      No, and this is one of the seemingly least understood aspects of Bitcoin mining. The difficulty of mining a block adjusts dynamically based upon the total amount of compute power currently mining. The more mining power, the higher the difficulty. The purpose is so that a new block is found approximately every 10 minutes. When power is added, blocks are found faster and the difficulty increases. When power is removed, difficulty decreases.

      One important aspect if how often the difficulty adjusts -- it's around every 2 weeks for Bitcoin. So if a lot of power is suddenly removed, then the rate at which blocks are found will likely dramatically increase -- and stay that way for potentially several weeks. But eventually the difficulty will adjust to match the available compute power, and orderly blocks every 10 minutes will resume.

      Some alternative cryptos have differentiated themselves versus Bitcoin by having much faster difficulty adjustment periods (e.g. as quickly as every single block).

      Bitcoin would only consume a nuclear power plant of energy if humans put a nuclear power plant's worth of energy into mining. If instead humanity puts it 5V @ 0.001W of power, the difficulty will adjust and that will be the consumption. ROI will ultimately drive the amount of compute power dedicated to Bitcoin.

    4. Re:Bitcoin hyped up disaster by Wycliffe · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'll see your fear-mongering and raise you Fake News.

      Seriously though, the total power usage for BTC is based on some rather sketchy numbers and still represents a minuscule fraction of the worldwide power usage. More is wasted on lighting streets with no people on them.

      The total power usage might be a rough estimate but the ROI is fairly easy to calculate based on the cost of electricity and the difficulty level. It's mostly a break even proposition based on electricity usage so if the price of a bitcoin goes to $1M, then it stands to reason that you could burn thru around $900k of electricity and still make a positive ROI. Bitcoin mining is really a form of arbitrage between the cost of electricity and the price of a bitcoin. If the cost of a bitcoin increases and stays there then the number on miners and the difficulty level will increase until it is once again a break even trade of electricity for bitcoin.

    5. Re:Bitcoin hyped up disaster by Pope+Raymond+Lama · · Score: 3, Informative

      It is actually fun the minimal amount of people who know the very least what they are talking about on all these comments.

      While you are no troll, and express a legitmate doubt, bitcoin and each of the other crypto-currency coins are not "I think that", rather, their behavior are carefully described in documentation and implemented in code. In the case of bitcoin, this is addressed in a very prominent way in the whitepaper that defined the protocol - https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pd... (just ctrl+f for "difficulty").

      On the software implementation itself, however, this is mostly interesting: since the whole blockchain thing is based on cryptographical hashes, "mining" a block comprises exactly of assembling a block which hashes to a number that is _lower_ than the current difficulty. And the difficulty is simply an unsigned 256 bit integer that gets closer to zero the higher the difficult is. The information that composes a block are the picked transactions that are taking place and couple fields the miners can change in the block headers. The first one to get a full block with transactions + all headers that hashes lower than the current difficult just "mined" the block.
      And this difficult number is set in the protocol to be adjusted every two weeks or so.

      You are confounding that with the rewards for each block, which halve every 4 years, which is were the 21 million bitoin to be ever created amount come from: at a certain point, when the halving takes place, the block reward will be smaller than the smallest bitcoin fraction (1/ 100 million biticoin = 1 satoshi). From these, 16 million have already been created.

      --
      -><- no .sig is good sig.
    6. Re:Bitcoin hyped up disaster by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      Yup. If you live in the SF Bay Area - and I'm sure, elsewhere in the country - you've seen people from the far side of the Pac Rim buying up houses, doing some fixes over 2 years or so (e.g., minimum holding period to realize certain types of home-sale gains) then selling them and storing the capital in USD held by trusts which are outside the reach of the PRC. I've seen this happen with two houses in my neighborhood....capital flight out of the PRC is very real, and it's scaring the wits out of their government.

  5. Mining pools and difficulty by FeelGood314 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The mining pools are run out of China. The physical location of the devices doing the hashing is wherever the electricity is cheapest. For example, people heat their homes in Quebec with electricity so some are mining there now and heating with the waste heat.
    The mining equipment won't vanish. If you have sunk the cost of buying the equipment, you won't turn it off because electricity got more expensive. Right now $1 worth of electricity gets you about $10 worth of crypto currency. If the price of electricity goes up 9x it still will make sense to mine. It just won't make sense to buy new equipment.

    Transaction times won't be affected. The total hashing power won't decrease. It's rate of increase might slow. BUT, even if the total hashing power fell, the currencies have what is called a difficulty level. That will decrease and a currency like bitcoin will continue to create a new block every 10 minutes.

    1. Re:Mining pools and difficulty by war4peace · · Score: 2

      I don't have to "try" it, i'm already doing it, and it works OK.
      In last 4 months of mining I made 300 bucks, not counting the loss of 0.012 BTC due to NiceHash being, ahem, "hacked", with a single watercooled GTX 1080. Back in August I owned 0.048 BTC but bought a computer case with it - sold the BTC for 200 bucks. In retrospect I shouldn't have done it but whatever.
      I know, it won'a make me rich but in 5 more months the card would have earned its value back, and from then on it's profit, assuming the coin values stay the same (which they so far didn't, they continuously increased).
      Point is, the 3 bucks a day my card makes NOW might be worth 10 bucks or more 6 months from now. At the same time they might be worth zilch but the way I'm seeing things the power consumption would have been paid off anyway and the card would still be under warranty so if the cryptocurrency market bombs, my losses would be already paid for and thus equal zero.

      So there you have it. Your "exercise" must have been badly designed.
      Just mine any altcoin in top 1000 and convert it to BTC as you see fit in an online exchange. As for the Internet connection, I couldn't tell. I have Gigabit fiber + cable TV + 3G dongle + unlimited data phone contract, all for 25 bucks a month. One of the very few advantages of living in Romania, I guess.

      --
      ...gis sdrawkcab (usually not responding to ACs; don't bother posting as AC)
    2. Re:Mining pools and difficulty by war4peace · · Score: 2

      I am using a very simple setup but mind you, it's under Windows.
      Create a Vertcoin wallet on Yobit.net then follow the instructions for One Click miner located here: https://vertcoin.easymine.onli...
      That's pretty much it. now, don't expect a lot to come using a GTX 1060, I own a GTX 1080 and plan on adding one more similar card or better (1080 Ti) to my PC (which is fully watercooled). With a single GTX 1080 I reach around 50 MH/s mining Vertcoin, which translates to around 0.5 VTC per day, all while my GPU stays at around 48 degrees Celsius.

      --
      ...gis sdrawkcab (usually not responding to ACs; don't bother posting as AC)
  6. bitcoin is a disaster for the environment. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    epic waste of energy.

    1. Re:bitcoin is a disaster for the environment. by BasilBrush · · Score: 2

      In general yes. However if you use some rigs for domestic heating it's not a waste at all. A kW of electricity put into a mining rig will give you just as much heating as a kW put into an electric heater.

    2. Re:bitcoin is a disaster for the environment. by viperidaenz · · Score: 2

      and about a third of the heating if you put the energy into a heat pump.

  7. China's government doesn't handing over control by Lucas123 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies supersede traditional fiat money systems, and so threaten government power. I suspect China will not be the last nation to come out against decentralized blockchain-based currencies.

  8. China is not where investments are made now by Troed · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Huge mining operations are already up and running, and more planned, in Canada, Iceland, Sweden and Russia. This will not disrupt Bitcoin.

    https://www.hiveblockchain.com...

    1. Re:China is not where investments are made now by BasilBrush · · Score: 2

      Although China effectively banning it will make it easier for other countries to do the same.

  9. Re:Smart by Tailhook · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We know you do. We also know you're not smart enough to make the connection between authoritarian government and lack of free speech, which is why we don't allow you to prevail.

    --
    Maw! Fire up the karma burner!
  10. Let's all welcome China! by Areyoukiddingme · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ...authorities were instructed to force mining operations out of business using measures linked to electricity pricing, land use, tax and environmental protection.

    Let's all welcome China to the First World! We're going to redefine the phrase to include them now. How very American of them, to use electricity pricing, land use (zoning), taxes, and environmental protection regulations to crush something they don't like. We're so proud of them.

    Being a capitalist dictatorship sure sounds so much better than being a communist dictatorship, don't you think? Remember kids, it's not an edict from the Powers That Be. It's just a change in zoning. Nothing to see here.

  11. Re:Seize the GPUs as well by HornWumpus · · Score: 2

    For a while you couldn't turn a profit with a GPU. With insane bitcoin prices you can earn (I'm told) about $250/month after electric cost with a 1080ti. Which is why the price of 1080s has gone up.

    --
    John McAfee 'It was like that time I hired that Bangkok prostitute; to do my taxes, while I fucked my accountant'
  12. And the blockchain network will be more secure by perpenso · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The biggest, and maybe only problem that will arise will be the difficulty being too high when they shut down the farms, leading to a period of slow block solves until the difficulty adjusts. The network will work just fine without the chinese mining farms

    And the blockchain network will be more secure. Bitcoin has deviated from its original design in two ways and both compromise blockchain security. First, miners are no longer a diverse group of ordinary users and their personal computers, mining is dominated by a relatively small number of ASIC farms. This makes 51% attacks more plausible, we had one pool get to 50% a few years ago. Secondly, ASIC mining is concentrated in a single country, 70% of the hashate give or take. This obviously destroys the notion that bitcoin is beyond government meddling. These ASIC miners are dependent upon cheap government controlled power.

    It sucks to have invested money in ASIC hardware and colocated you gear there but this move would help to get bitcoin back on track. Hopefully closer to the globally and widely distributed mining that is necessary for blockchain security, something we do not have today.

    1. Re:And the blockchain network will be more secure by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 3, Funny

      My guess is the ASIC's become a lot cheaper on ebay...

  13. Re:Seize the GPUs as well by perpenso · · Score: 2

    For a while you couldn't turn a profit with a GPU. With insane bitcoin prices you can earn (I'm told) about $250/month after electric cost with a 1080ti. Which is why the price of 1080s has gone up.

    But you are not mining bitcoin. If you are receiving bitcoins from GPU mining you are likely selling your hashing power to someone doing alt-coin mining and who is paying for this hashing in bitcoin. Because who wants whatever goofy alt-coin they want to mine. :-)

  14. Do *not* join the Cryptocurrency Mining Scene by perpenso · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If you want to get in on the cryptocurrency mining scene ...

    Stop yourself, don't do it. Take either of these two paths:

    (1) You were going to buy a GPU anyway for some non-mining reason. Go ahead, buy the GPU. Maybe, **maybe**, buy a model up one level of performance/price from what you would have otherwise bought, if its a low to midrange model. Say if you were otherwise planning on a GTX 1050 Ti 4GB ***maybe*** get a GTX 1060 6GB, ****maybe****. If you were otherwise getting a high performer, say a 1070 Ti for that 4K monitor, do *****not***** go up a level to a 1080 Ti. Then let the GPU mine when you are not using the machine. Use a watt meter to determine the total power consumption of your machine to determine power usage, do *not* trust online references that say your GPU uses so many watts. When your GPU is mining other parts of the computer are also drawing power, especially the CPU which may also be mining. You want to know the total system power and make sure your mining proceeds exceed that amount. Be sure to use above baseline residential power rates in your calculations, do *not* just look at your current bill and expect the current rate. If it is not profitable to mine do *not* fall into the trap that "the coin price will eventually rise and make it profitable", that is a losing game. Instead, take whatever money you would spend on power and just buy the coins directly, you will have more coins that way if the price rises. But above all else, do not get into the mindset of joining the mining scene, that is a path to losing money. Stay in the scene "the GPU I have anyway can make some coin when I'm not using it".

    (2) Take whatever money you were willing to spend on a GPU for mining and just buy coins with that money. You will likely do better that way if the price rises. Many miners fall into the trap that they are profitable and pat themselves on the back. They do not consider the opportunity cost of the alternative of just buying coins directly. The following are very rough estimates but the point will nonetheless be clear. Lets say you spent $500 on a GPU last summer and another $500 on a GPU last fall. At above baseline residential power rates maybe you have about an extra $1,000 after factoring in power. Congrats your GPUs are now paid. However your friend bought $500 worth of bitcoin in the summer and another $500 in the fall and now has $3,000 worth of bitcoin. You are at net $0, he is at net $2,0000. If you are willing to gamble on increasing coin prices you may be better off just buying coins directly. Things are not as simple as a mining rig being profitable, the opportunity cost of the just buy directly must be considered. Many other things must also be considered before joining the mining scene.

    1. Re:Do *not* join the Cryptocurrency Mining Scene by Kremmy · · Score: 2

      If you run the real numbers, it's profitable.
      You might not get rich. Who cares.
      Paying some of the highest local market rates, my normal workstation with an outdated video card pulls in real actual profit by the real actual honest numbers.
      But you must understand that this is like anything else. If you half ass it, you're going to lose a lot of time and money.
      If I had the money to drop to build a high end, dense mining rig, then I would do it without hesitation.
      I've been listening to people who don't put the time in tell me it's not worth it for over half a decade now.
      Can you guys start shutting up if you don't want to put the work in?

    2. Re:Do *not* join the Cryptocurrency Mining Scene by perpenso · · Score: 2

      Buy a dual 1080 Ti. Stick it your computer and it will pay for itself in 3 months. You can also game on it once in a while.

      *Iff* coin prices do not decline.
      **Iff** difficulty levels do not increase.
      Normal difficulty increases will likely stretch that 3 months to 6 months. 3 months is an extrapolation of today's revenue, poor planning to bank on that.

      Now if you want to gamble on increasing coin prices, you can take the money for those two 1080 Ti's and invest that up front by buying the coins directly at an expected relative low. You may be tempted to make an "averaging in" argument, but we aren't talking about consistent payroll deductions into a 401K here. Every two weeks the earning power of those 1080 Ti's will likely decline, your "contributions" will decline. If you are expecting the sort of volatility that "averaging in" helps protect against you are also expecting to stretch out the timeframe those 1080 Ti's need to reach profitability, if ever.

      Again, *iff* you are gambling on increasing coin prices you may make more by just buying coins up front and then cashing out after a few months. Then buy a 1080 Ti for gaming if you really want one and if you think coins prices have stabilized or will decline. If you expect further increases its probably best to delay the 1080 Ti a little longer. Read case (2) above, its based on actual mining revenue and coin price of the last six months, numbers slightly rounded for convenience. 3x the revenue for delaying the GPU purchases.

      Just to check, that 3 month projection of yours is subtracting out power at above baseline residential pricing?

      Seriously, your 3 month claim to break-even makes me skeptical, if you had said 6 months that would have been more plausible. Sit down with a spreadsheet and model different scenarios. People who do so often find things are quite different than more casual analysis predicts.

  15. Only if rationally priced by sjbe · · Score: 2

    If the price of a transaction goes up, that would bring the price of bitcoin down (makes it more expensive to use, and therefore worth less).

    If bitcoin were rationally priced that would be true. But bitcoin is a very long way away from being rationally priced. Right now it's a speculative bubble and the "value" of a bitcoin (and other cryptocurrencies) has become untethered from sanity therefore the normal rules of supply and demand are temporarily suspended.

    1. Re:Only if rationally priced by DaveV1.0 · · Score: 2

      The price of gold is what people are willing to pay for it and gold has an intrinsic value due to the fact is is a relatively rare, useful metal.

      The price of bitcoin is what people are willing to pay for it but bitcoin has no intrinsic value because it is nothing but electronic 1s and 0s that can't be used for anything besides being a bitcoin.

      --
      There is no "-1 offended" or "-1 you don't agree with me" mod options for a reason.
  16. Re:Finally! by JaredOfEuropa · · Score: 2

    Dodgycoin? That's all of them

    --
    If construction was anything like programming, an incorrectly fitted lock would bring down the entire building...
  17. Re:Finally! by TheDarkMaster · · Score: 2

    E-Coin will take over.

    Which means the dark army wins... You think these are related? ;^)

    Has anyone summoned me? :-))

    --
    Religion: The greatest weapon of mass destruction of all time
  18. Opportunity by Kryptonut · · Score: 2

    Perhaps this will decentralise mining operations further around the world. Perhaps there will also be a flood of cheaper mining equipment too as a result of mining operations ending in China.

    Could be a fantastic opportunity for more smaller players to get on board.

  19. Re: A must watch "Climate Hysteria" by stoatwblr · · Score: 2

    "Methane doesn't last long in the atmosphere - it eventually degrades into carbon dioxide, which does hang around."

    FSVO 'not lasting long' - the forcing effect of Methane is 20 times higher than CO2 over a one century timescale. On a decade scale or less it's about 100 times higher.

    This means that 1-5GT of methane burping out of the Arctic ocean around the Leptav sea continental shelf would not make for happy fun times, vs 1-5GT of CO2, which would merely be a bad day on planet Earth. (I pick those locations for a reason, look them up and then 'anoxic event' for a something more worrying than mere sea level rises)

    Water vapour is a greenhouse gas, but the quantities are largely related to existing temperatures (warmer = moister) and the practical effect (increased clouds cover) means an increased planetary albedo (reflectivity) which reduces primary heat input so for the most part it's self cancelling.

  20. Re:Smart by dryeo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yes, we're talking about the type of authoritarian government that locks up millions of citizens, often for political crimes such as using the wrong substances that the authoritarians don't like.
    It's actually pretty common for a large percentage of the population to like the authoritarians, look at America where they keep actually voting them in.

    --
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism