PC Market Still Showing Few Signs of Life (axios.com)

An anonymous reader writes: It was another rough quarter for the global PC market, as fourth quarter unit sales dropped 2%, according to preliminary results from Gartner. In the U.S. things were even bleaker, with sales down 8%. HP was the only big name maker to post a sales increase in the U.S. and globally. It also passed Lenovo to grab the top spot globally and increased its lead in the U.S. over Dell. Apple saw Mac sales globally up 1.4%, but in the U.S. sales were down 1.6%. Dell gained less than 1% globally but fell more than 12% in the U.S. Lenovo sales dipped slightly globally, but its market share increased slightly, to 22% of the worldwide market.

Comments

Is this unexpected?

[jbmartin6]

PCs have mostly hit the 'good enough' point, there is no value in replacing them as frequently as in the past.

Re:Is this unexpected?

[sdinfoserv]

In the corporate office we have PC's on 5 year replacement cycles. Try telling your CAD operator he has to use ipad... ya, then tell me again "THE PC IS DEAD"... for thousandth time since 2005...

Re:Is this unexpected?

[Anonymous Coward]

Is this unexpected? ... PCs have mostly hit the 'good enough' point, there is no value in replacing them as frequently as in the past.

This is unexpected to morons -- you know, CEOs and the entire stock market. Apparently this fact has caught them all by surprise.

Somewhere in the last few years the irrational notion that every company needs to sell 10% more than it did last year, or it's back-sliding. Or your stock needs to grow by 10% or you've "missed your targets".

This, of course, is mathematically impossible and delusional, and has nothing at all to do with reality. But this is how the collectively stupid market behaves these days .. by making irrational assumptions weighed against impossible expectations.

So, yes, for all of these consumer things .. TVs, phones, computers, cars .. there comes a point where a rational consumer says "what I have is just fine, works, and meets all of my needs". The new features and gimmicks aren't compelling, and people simply don't have the money or desire to replace everything they own every year or so.

But that doesn't satisfy the irrational 'market', and unfortunately as reality asserts itself, companies, stock holders, and the 'market' are all panicking. They're in full blown zomg teh company didn't grow teh skis is teh falling. This despite people saying for over a decade this is simply not possible.

For example, nobody really wanted 4K TV .. sure, it's the next geometric evolution, but nobody needs it. Those 8K TVs which came out? Doomed from the fucking start because nobody cares. Someone is busily making 16K TVs, and still, nobody will care.

They want to reinvent the hype of the HD transition, but people aren't interested in shelling out the money or replacing their entire TV infrastructure on a timeline which suits the manufacturers.

This is the PC market suddenly shitting their pants .. not because they've had an especially bad year, but because people have said "what do I need a faster PC for?"

The entire stock market has become infected with this bit of crazy, which tells me that collectively Wall Street are greedy, and stupid, and likely delusional if they have believed you can sustain a 10% growth forever. It's simply not possible, and consumers don't have that kind of money.

Let the 1% buy more shit with their fucking tax breaks to prop up shareholder value. The rest of us are tired of being treated as cattle who are expected to buy shit to pad out the bottom line.

Laptops and Thunderbolt 3

[Hadlock]

Growing up in high school in the late 90s/early 2000s I was one of "those guys" (if you're reading this, likely you were too) with several used PCs living in their bedroom running various hobbyist tasks, sometimes tinkering with linux etc.
 
Then in the 2010s I was down to a single "vm lab" server and desktop for games, plus a single laptop for travel. As time has gone on, priorities have changed, I use my laptop more and my desktop is somewhere under a heap of old things in a storage unit an hour from my home. The laptop is my primary machine.
 
With the advent of Thunderbolt 3 you can finally get enough bits across to outsource your GPU to a box on your desk, and Lenovo's selling a "graphics dock" with a midrange GTX 1050 for $400 not much larger than an Apple TV or VHS cassette tape.
 
My last "new" computer was a 2012 era Thinkpad x230, and I'll probably be upgrading to the x280 pr T480 when it comes out in a month or so, and also a graphics dock. Then when I need to upgrade the graphics, just plug in a new TB3 graphics dock/eGPU. My i5 from 2012 is still plenty fast, the only shortcoming is that it can address a max of 16GB memory and moderately weak graphics (although I did play Skyrim on it over Christmas for 40+ hours without an issue). I also upgraded the drive from magnetic to SSD for maybe $100 and replaced the battery for $50.
 
If power users can hold on to their laptops for five years, I can only imagine how long the average user keeps their computer these days. Being able to extend the graphics on a laptop indefinitely is going to extend the life of the device quite a bit.

GPU shortage

[Tailhook]

Those who build "desktop" machines for gaming are in a bad place right now; mining has doubled the price of new GPUs; a GTX 1070 is ~$900+ right now anywhere that actually has them in stock. You can sell a used 970 for more than you paid new. Then you have GPU manufacturers sending a huge chunk of their foundry capacity to big ML cloud operators. The key piece of hardware for Desktop machines, a GPU, has become a costly and difficult to obtain part.