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Desktop PC Shipments Dip Below 100m/Year (theregister.co.uk)

Posted by msmash on from the where-we-are dept.

Desktop PC shipments dipped below 100 million in 2017 and there's worse to come across the personal computing device market according to analyst firm IDC. From a report: The company on Wednesday published a summary of its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker for 2017's final quarter in which it totted up shipments for the year across all forms of PC and slate-style tablets. The headline figure was a 2.7 per cent year-over-year decline. The firm said "commercial PC renewal momentum remained as the main catalyst in a market that was also tempered by lackluster demand for legacy form factor devices and component shortages." There was a little good news in 2017 with growth in notebook sales, as they grew more strongly than in any year since 2012, but the overall picture was poor.

54 comments

  1. Speculation: by thegreatbob · · Score: 2

    Perhaps demand will recover when the VR software/hardware makes it to the far side of the uncanny valley? Or does somebody have a better term to encompass all of the latent issues with existing VR systems? I feel like it's one of the few consumer-oriented concepts that might actually require beefy, customizable hardware for people who aren't natively tinkerers/hobbyists/hardcore gamers. Any other systems/concepts out there that might be a decent driver of sales in the future?

    --
    There is no XUL, only WebExtensions...
    1. Re:Speculation: by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      VR will never work due to the disconnect between what the eye sees and what the inner ear senses. Unless that problem is solved people will experience motion sickness. It is physiology. However, AR is a real thing.

    2. Re:Speculation: by Junta · · Score: 1

      That is not a problem for everyone and is even unheard of for certain sorts of experiences (experiences with 0 in-game movement that isn't 1:1 don't make people sick, games with cockpits don't make many people sick, a free-movement fps can make a lot of people sick, but there are a lot of people not in that boat. For example there has not been a VR experience *yet* that perturbed me in the least.

      However, current tech is limited and flawed (resolution, optics, weight). It does demand a fair amount of space to participate in. I can be a problem socially where the more blatant isolation is seen as offensive. There are reasons why VR may not take off, but I don't think the sickness is a fatal problem for the industry.

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
    3. Re:Speculation: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Worked for an AI company a little over twenty years ago, and only whiny bitches, like the ones that get car sick because they need attention like a puppy and decide to get sick when they don't get it, got motion sickness from VR. Their kind is weak, so why should we care about them? They whine constantly and drag down humanity. We would be better off tying breeding into VR in order to help breed out the people that get motion sickness when they don't get enough attention.

      One thing I've noticed is that if you have an SO that you want to enjoy VR, holding their hands or massaging their shoulders if they're hands are busy plus saying sweet things to them will make them decide to not get sick in order to get attention since they're getting attention.

    4. Re:Speculation: by imgod2u · · Score: 1

      Well, for me, the barrier to entry into VR is requiring me to hook it up to a PC box.

      Having a giant collection of fans inside a loud, power-hungry box is not something I want in my living room.

    5. Re:Speculation: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, I can use VR without getting sick so maybe some people are just more sensitive than others. That doesn't mean VR is unworkable. HTC, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, etc. seem to think that they can make it work.

      Besides, it'll be a moot point once they can plugin directly to the brain and bypass the sensory organs entirely.

      Never say never, people will line up from far and wide just to try and prove you wrong.

    6. Re:Speculation: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I used to drive a school bus, and you're right it was the attention whore children that got sick in order to get attention. I'd love to see a correlation between how often children use the work me versus how often they decide to get motion sick to get attention. If we could identify those kids, we could helpfully help them gain enough independence and self-respect so that later in life VR doesn't make them sick.

    7. Re:Speculation: by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Actually those companies have largely ditched VR and are switching to AR. There is a reason VR never caught on. Plugging into the brain is just scifi at this point.

    8. Re:Speculation: by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Of course. There is always that "one guy" on Slashdot who is never motion sick. I meant for the vast majority of people. You, of course, are special.

    9. Re:Speculation: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Perhaps demand will recover when the VR software/hardware makes it to the far side of the uncanny valley? Or does somebody have a better term to encompass all of the latent issues with existing VR systems? I feel like it's one of the few consumer-oriented concepts that might actually require beefy, customizable hardware for people who aren't natively tinkerers/hobbyists/hardcore gamers. Any other systems/concepts out there that might be a decent driver of sales in the future?

      If VR is going to catch on, it will be when you can buy a lightweight headset that doesn't require anything else to run it, and certainly not a desktop computer with an expensive GPU in it.

    10. Re:Speculation: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The RTS genre works, as will any other genre where the viewpoint doesn't move, other than with the player's head movement.

    11. Re:Speculation: by Diakoneo · · Score: 1

      Interesting that you immediately tied VR to upcoming PC sales, as that's my gating factor right now. The rig I have is 'good enough' to handle the games I play now. But I'm thinking about going to VR next. I did a little checking, and it would cost a lot more to upgrade my current rig to be beefy enough to handle VR than it would be to just buy a rig designed to handle VR.

      --
      "Just as there is nothing so unreal as reality TV, there is nothing as unsocial as social media." - Alistair Dabbs
    12. Re:Speculation: by Junta · · Score: 1

      I don't think it's that special. It's just that when someone does get sick, it's pretty quick and very pronounced. I don't think I've ever seen a 'percentage' study, mostly anecdotes. As such anecdotes where people feel like they are going to throw up are for more potent than anecdotes where nothing happened.

      My wife gets sick just seeing content on the tv that spins around and such, but she can do VR without issue... so long as movement is 1:1.

      Of course she doesn't really *care* to, but her disinterest is not due to physical reaction.

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
    13. Re:Speculation: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wouldn't VR be more of a gaming thing? Xbox and Playstation territory?

      Most people never needed 90% of what a desktop does, and the kids these days get by with a phone.

    14. Re:Speculation: by Kjella · · Score: 1

      I've tried it at a friend's house and I think the biggest problem is what you'd do as a player. I mean realistically you're trapped in a very small box so it's either some variation of DDR where you do things on the spot which gets tiresome really fast or it's a simulator where you're in the driver/pilot's seat. And for the latter curved wide screens would get me most of the way there. I mean the cool thing is the motion tracking but it's mostly limited to duck and cover and peeking around corners. You can't run around like it's some paintball match, 99.9% of us just don't have the space. I still haven't seen any VR concept I'd consider playing for more than like 10-15 minutes.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    15. Re:Speculation: by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      Glasses are the issue I think. A LOT of people need glasses of some sort and from what I've seen with both 3D and VR those people are more likely to get sick when dealing with those techs.

      But I think the issue with VR is gonna be the same as 3D, the tech we have now is "good enough" for what most people want, same as how DVDs keep right on selling. I've tried VR and 3D and frankly I just find the experience of just having a couple of big fat monitors more than good enough for the games I play, even my flight games. Constantly having to whip my head around gives me neck strain after awhile and I just didn't find the whole VR thing very appealing, I guess my customer who was showing his off to me didn't care for it either because I noticed his VR rig for sale on CL about a month after he tried to get me interested in it.

      I just don't see how they are gonna compete with the comfort factor, with my PC rig I have my big comfy chair and a couple of big monitors, its about as relaxing as one can get and I can reach over and gab a sip of my coke or wolf down some pizza while I'm in a climb,its just so damned much more comfy than wearing the headgear and I don't have to sink crazy money and try to buy a new GPU while miners are sucking down graphics cards like drunks sucking down a free minibar so its a win/win for me to just skip it like I did the 3D TV fad.

      --
      ACs don't waste your time replying, your posts are never seen by me.
    16. Re:Speculation: by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      In my anecdotal experience, older people who were encouraged to use PCs by their children but typically let them get dusty much prefer tablets and smart-phones and are much less technophobic about smaller gadgets.

      --
      Waterfox - a Firefox fork with legacy extension support, security updates and better privacy by default.
    17. Re:Speculation: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      VR is a fad, just like the last few times it was introduced to the market.

  2. 2017 - the year of the Linux desktop by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    oh, wait. nevermind.

  3. How long till next /. outage? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    What exactly is happening that's causing these outages?

    I'm guessing nobody is trying to implement Unicode support or anything so why does slashdot keep going down?

    Is there a DoS attack or something else we should know about?

    Are Slashdot outages going to continue being mysteriously timed around Russia related articles?

  4. Stop the backdoors and I'll buy 1... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Since you insist on shipping compromised hardware, how do you expect to sell a single unit?

  5. I want a new gaming desktop.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've been putting off buying a new gaming desktop because prices are too high and ... going up?!

    bitcoin has caused video cards to be priced at ridiculous levels. SSDs are being artifically kept overpriced... 3 years ago I bought a Samsung 250GB SSD for $85. Today, a 250GB Samsung SSD is $95... Makes sense. Same thing is true with RAM, 6 (SIX!!) years ago, I bought 32GB of ECC DDR3 for around $500. Today... $420 if I go with cheap-non-ecc bullshit. $700 for ECC...

    So yeah, when they return prices to decent levels, I'll go back to buying computer hardware. Until then, there are better toys I can buy for current prices.

    1. Re:I want a new gaming desktop.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm in the same boat as you. I'm not surprised in the slightest that PC sales are slumping. The crypto mining craze has driven the cost of new GPUs through the roof !! The 1060gtx 6GB that I bought 18 months ago for less than $300 is now selling for $450 (CAD). 1070s and 1080s are even more overpriced. Since the GPU is a major part of the cost of a new PC ... now is absolutely *not* the time to buy a new machine.

    2. Re:I want a new gaming desktop.... by Junta · · Score: 1

      This phenomenon is to be expected, sadly, as the mass market appeal diminishes.

      For a time, high end computer and what the general market needed overlapped very nicely, and the high volumes made high end computing very affordable.

      Now the general market is served by a pretty distinct set of configurations, and the high end of the market goes back up.

      --
      XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve the problem, use more.
  6. The role of the desktop can be done by other items by ctilsie242 · · Score: 1

    The desktop's role isn't going anywhere. However, in a lot of companies, the desktop computer is being replaced by laptops and docks, and at home, a lot of people find that a laptop serves their needs well enough that they don't need a desktop PC either.

    I am not surprised by this in the least. Desktop PCs will still always be around, but the role is easily handled by laptops and tablets like the Microsoft Surface and the Dell 2-in-1s, especially with breakout boxes for GPUs, so the heavy-lifting for gaming can stay in a separate box at home.

  7. Why would that increase PC demand... by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    Perhaps demand will recover when the VR software/hardware makes it to the far side of the uncanny valley?

    But why would that be PC demand?

    The by far largest VR platform today is PSVR, because you don't have to worry about all of the PC crap to get the system to work.

    Sony continues to push and evolve VR in the home at a good clip. As hardware improves I don't see that changing a lot, the primary VR systems will either be mobile or console based.

    By the way I don't know what "uncanny valley" you are thinking of in relation to VR, the PSVR works quite well, the Vive especially well at making you feel like you are in the world. If Sony got better hand controllers that could really track movements as well as the Vive they could really make units move I think.

    --
    "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
    1. Re:Why would that increase PC demand... by thegreatbob · · Score: 1

      Meant to reply sooner, but the /. was borked (all the 503s)... for lack of a better term, I chose 'uncanny valley' to be an analog between realism in robots and realism/immersion in VR. For myself, I feel like we're starting the uphill climb on the far side of the valley. If someone has a better term (or explanation for a lack thereof), I'm open.

      --
      There is no XUL, only WebExtensions...
    2. Re:Why would that increase PC demand... by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

      I agree we've only just started the uphill climb but I feel like we are across that valley. On the Vive especially there were a number of experiences (like a virtual bow and arrow that felt more real than odd). Even on the PSVR with it's poorer tracking device a few of the things I tried felt really immersive and tracked well...

      To me I think the key to real immersion in VR is a combination of head and hand tracking. The head tracking is now great almost across the board on all the "real" VR headsets. You can look around and everything changes as you'd expect. The hand tracking is shakier as it's a combination of controller and visual UI and UIX with the environment around you, but like I said some things seem to have cracked it to where I really feel like I am present in another place.

      --
      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  8. perhaps I'm in the minority but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ...I build my own computers from parts. I haven't bought a desktop PC (as I assume they count it) in decades for my personal use. So how many of us are there that they can't count?

    I think the last PC I purchased outright was a laptop I bought around 1998 and I assume laptops don't count as desktop PCs. I run TinyCore Linux on it these days as win98 hasn't been sustainable for ages. The closest thing to a ready made PC that I've bought recently is the Raspberry Pi (running FreeBSD) that I picked up a couple of years back and use as a home server. The most recent desktop PC build is my win7 box in 2013. The older desktop runs PCLinuxOS.
    --
    Steve (AC because I haven't bothered to register in all these years)

  9. Artifical demand boost due Windows 7 EOL by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In 2020 there will be panic buying of new hardware when Windows 7 is prematurely EOLed by Microsoft but most businesses don’t want 10 so will continue using 7 unsupported. With cryptocurrencies using up all the GPUs people who need GPUs are sticking to their old ones and not buying new desktops to go with it.

  10. Stop with the spin. by Lirodon · · Score: 1

    Spin it like this: Home building is killing the PC industry. And it should be that way.

    1. Re:Stop with the spin. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Why would construction of houses reduce demand for computers?

    2. Re:Stop with the spin. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the reason why pc sales are down is two-fold, and diy-ers aren't one of them..

      windows 10 sucks moldy hairy ass (seriously, it does. if you think otherwise, you're fucking delusional and/or being paid by microsoft)...

      and ... people get by without, by using their phones or tablets instead.

  11. 100 meters per year by jfdavis668 · · Score: 1

    I read the title as "Desktop PC Shipments Dip Below 100 meters/ Year." I guess they weren't getting too deep.

    1. Re:100 meters per year by tomhath · · Score: 1

      This is slashdot. Units should be furlongs/fortnight.

  12. Real Work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    PCs are for people doing real-work.

    High end number crunching, CAD, development of huge projects, video editing, etc.

    Most people would be fine with a laptop, or even a tablet.

    Web browsing, email, skype, snap, and other crap don't take a lot of horsepower.

  13. GPUs are massively overpriced right now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm not surprised in the slightest that PC sales are slumping. The crypto mining craze has driven the cost of new GPUs through the roof !! The 1060gtx 6GB that I bought 18 months ago for less than $300 is now selling for $450 (CAD). 1070s and 1080s are even more overpriced. Since the GPU is a major part of the cost of a new PC ... now is absolutely *not* the time to buy a new machine.

  14. Re:The role of the desktop can be done by other it by magzteel · · Score: 1

    The desktop's role isn't going anywhere. However, in a lot of companies, the desktop computer is being replaced by laptops and docks, and at home, a lot of people find that a laptop serves their needs well enough that they don't need a desktop PC either.

    I am not surprised by this in the least. Desktop PCs will still always be around, but the role is easily handled by laptops and tablets like the Microsoft Surface and the Dell 2-in-1s, especially with breakout boxes for GPUs, so the heavy-lifting for gaming can stay in a separate box at home.

    For work I need a lot of desktop. A laptop is painful, and a tablet is impossible.
    I suppose it would be cool to have a high-end tablet that can hook to a dock with monitors, keyboard, and mouse but it sounds expensive.

  15. No compelling reason to upgrade... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I always build my own computer so I'm not a target audience for dell or best buy. Even so, my current computer is at least five years old and the hardware models are likely 7 or more years old.

    I can still play all the games I want to play on high settings. I have an AMD Athlon II X3 455 3.3ghz, 8gb ram, 250gb SSD and Geforce GTX 750 Ti.

    I'm sure it's not that impressive to anyone but none of my games are cutting edge anyway.

  16. What about thin clients and VM's? by magzteel · · Score: 1

    My current and previous company have been replacing all physical Windows desktops with thin clients and VM's. This report doesn't address that trend.

    So it may be that physical desktop sales are down in part because the actual number of PC's (including VM's) in use is up.

    1. Re:What about thin clients and VM's? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What about many people trying to save a buck by not buying a PC every year because the same Core i7 w/SSD has been working just fine for so long? Just because sales are down doesn't mean usage is down, that is a useless metric unless you're a salesman.

  17. Statistics 101 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Graphics card prices were through the roof all year due to outrageous demand... So I find it difficult to believe that the conclusions being drawn from these statistics are sincere. Saying something like "things look grim" when we are producing a million PC's and tablets a day is well past the point of hyperbole.

  18. not news for nerds by swell · · Score: 1

    And why do nerds care about desktop computer sales? Isn't that a matter for Wall Street? And it isn't news any way to people not living in caves. Is there anyone alive who doesn't know that train has left the station? Desktop computers have their place and that won't change any time soon. Laptops also have their place, very well established, and again there won't be any remarkable change in sales figures. The smartphone industry is also matured to a point where it is very predictable. So, please, let's not waste nerds' time with 'news' about routine product sales figures.

    --
    ...omphaloskepsis often...
  19. Cause and effect by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Thank you, windows 10!

    1. Re:Cause and effect by Sperbels · · Score: 1

      Explain. Traditionally new versions of Windows actually drive PC sales because each new version is slower than the last.

  20. Who cares? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Let's take a look at some numbers, with some anecdotal assumptions...

    * There are an estimated 7.6 billion people on earth (http://www.worldometers.info/world-population).
    * About 25% of them do not have access to electricity (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/electricity-gap-developing-countries-energy-wood-charcoal/).
    * Therefore about 5.7 billion people are eligible to use a desktop computer at all.

    Divide that by the total sales (approximating at 100 million) and you get 57: For every 57 people eligible to use a desktop computer on Earth, only 1 of them bought a new one in the past year.

    Well, that's low, right? Or is it: I've been using my own desktop computer for 5 years now and I don't have a real need to replace it. I'd like a faster video card, but it'll still be a while before I can justify the expense.

    * Assuming all desktop users are on an average 6 year cycle, we see that about 1 in 10 upgrade-eligible people did so in the past year.

    But wait, my desktop computer isn't just for me, it also serves four other people.

    * Assuming that each desktop is used by an average of 2, now we're seeing 1 in every 5 upgrade-eligible cohorts did so.

    Oh wait, we're talking about _desktop_ computers. How many people do you know that even use desktops anymore? The consumption-only demographic has shifted to either phones, tablets, or laptops. So this figure of mine actually feels high now. Really high. I'm surprised there were that many shipped, to be honest. I assume businesses are the primary consumer of such devices now.

  21. "Computers" are so last millenium. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    People nowadays buy iPad Pros. Shit even Dell guy knew it was comming in the 90s or whatever. A true visionary. (I wonder if his acting career took off).

  22. Cause by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Nobody gets Windows 10 on purpose.

    Nobody wants a CPU with meltdown or spectre.

  23. Maybe Because There's No Need For New Ones? by Tempest_2084 · · Score: 1

    I'm still using the same Core i7 desktop I built 10 years ago as my main computer and it works just fine. I don't game on my PC, just web surfing, email, and streaming. Other than upgrading the RAM from 6GB to 12GB and putting in a new (well old, but newer than what I was using (GTX 260 to Radeon 7770)) graphics card that I was given for free a few years back I haven't done anything with it. I remember when you had to upgrade your computer ever 3-4 years just to run all the latest programs (mostly games, but productivity as well) but now you can hang onto your old PC until it dies and still be alright. I can't think of anything that won't run on my PC at the moment other than maybe some of the newest games. The days of constant upgrades are over.

  24. Diminishing Returns by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm still using the same Core i7 desktop I built 10 years ago as my main computer and it works just fine.

    Exactly. In the past, you could buy a computer that was twice as fast as one purchased a few years ago. This is simply not true any more. Efficiency and battery life have taken a front seat to cores and gigahertz.

    The best thing to do for a computer today is to buy an SSD, or maybe upgrade a video card.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diminishing_returns

  25. Re:The role of the desktop can be done by other it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's not tablets and laptops that are bringing down the sales of regular desktops. In fact many tasks can't even be achieved properly on those "platforms".

    What is bringing PC sales down Is that pre-built desktops have become nothing but low quality components at high prices. From weak PSU's and motherboards with locked/dumbed down BIOS/UEFI's SSD's with low capacity that can't hold more than 4 or 5 games, the exorbitant DDR4 RAM prices and graphics cards (crypto idiots thinking they'll make a profit) that doubled in price yet perform like mid range products from 3 years ago. Any pre-built desktop nowadays is nothing but budget hardware with premium prices just because it has a shitty case with plexiglass to show off useless LED's on the motherboard or the fans. Consumers are simply not willing to spend the same amount of money or more and get less in performance and quality.
    They wan't to upgrade or build a new system, they just can't (without getting a bank loan, selling a kidney or something)

    Just look at what 1500$ in one year decreased in performance/$ for the consumer: https://www.gamersnexus.net/guides/3215-msrp-build-vs-current-price-build-benchmarks

    And that's not a pre-built system, those will rip-off consumers even more.

    Also the DDR4 RAM price fixing*Cough* "supply&demand":

    https://www.gamersnexus.net/industry/3186-chinese-government-investigating-dram-price-fixing-allegations
    https://www.gamersnexus.net/industry/3212-ram-price-investigation-ddr4-same-price-as-initial-launch

  26. Re:The role of the desktop can be done by other it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    A $400 laptop approximately matches the specs of my rather ~6 year old desktop PC (which still functions quite well). The only thing a laptop would benefit from is a discrete GPU, which could be solved if external GPUs ever really take off.

    Considering that some of those desktops are built with lower-end CPUs and weak PSUs, a laptop isn't a bad alternative.

  27. No new PCs, no new phones? Fab for us &the pla by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Isn't that humanity's goal? Use less resources, make fewer things, work less, have UBI and more free time?

    Or is anyone still thinking "compete like crazy anyway you can, try to help the rich extract more money from the poor in any way you can, and the hell with the planet and its resources"?

  28. Re:The role of the desktop can be done by other it by Doc+Right · · Score: 0

    Laptops have become so cheap there's no reason for the average user to buy a desktop. Desktops will still be big in large businesses, where chances are taking your computer home is frowned upon. However the home user with a desktop is most likely a gamer, and not buying something off the shelf anyway. They're building their own rig.