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Desktop PC Shipments Dip Below 100m/Year (theregister.co.uk)

Posted by msmash on from the where-we-are dept.

Desktop PC shipments dipped below 100 million in 2017 and there's worse to come across the personal computing device market according to analyst firm IDC. From a report: The company on Wednesday published a summary of its Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker for 2017's final quarter in which it totted up shipments for the year across all forms of PC and slate-style tablets. The headline figure was a 2.7 per cent year-over-year decline. The firm said "commercial PC renewal momentum remained as the main catalyst in a market that was also tempered by lackluster demand for legacy form factor devices and component shortages." There was a little good news in 2017 with growth in notebook sales, as they grew more strongly than in any year since 2012, but the overall picture was poor.

24 of 54 comments (clear)

  1. Speculation: by thegreatbob · · Score: 2

    Perhaps demand will recover when the VR software/hardware makes it to the far side of the uncanny valley? Or does somebody have a better term to encompass all of the latent issues with existing VR systems? I feel like it's one of the few consumer-oriented concepts that might actually require beefy, customizable hardware for people who aren't natively tinkerers/hobbyists/hardcore gamers. Any other systems/concepts out there that might be a decent driver of sales in the future?

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    1. Re:Speculation: by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      VR will never work due to the disconnect between what the eye sees and what the inner ear senses. Unless that problem is solved people will experience motion sickness. It is physiology. However, AR is a real thing.

    2. Re:Speculation: by Junta · · Score: 1

      That is not a problem for everyone and is even unheard of for certain sorts of experiences (experiences with 0 in-game movement that isn't 1:1 don't make people sick, games with cockpits don't make many people sick, a free-movement fps can make a lot of people sick, but there are a lot of people not in that boat. For example there has not been a VR experience *yet* that perturbed me in the least.

      However, current tech is limited and flawed (resolution, optics, weight). It does demand a fair amount of space to participate in. I can be a problem socially where the more blatant isolation is seen as offensive. There are reasons why VR may not take off, but I don't think the sickness is a fatal problem for the industry.

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    3. Re:Speculation: by imgod2u · · Score: 1

      Well, for me, the barrier to entry into VR is requiring me to hook it up to a PC box.

      Having a giant collection of fans inside a loud, power-hungry box is not something I want in my living room.

    4. Re:Speculation: by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Actually those companies have largely ditched VR and are switching to AR. There is a reason VR never caught on. Plugging into the brain is just scifi at this point.

    5. Re:Speculation: by 110010001000 · · Score: 1

      Of course. There is always that "one guy" on Slashdot who is never motion sick. I meant for the vast majority of people. You, of course, are special.

    6. Re:Speculation: by Diakoneo · · Score: 1

      Interesting that you immediately tied VR to upcoming PC sales, as that's my gating factor right now. The rig I have is 'good enough' to handle the games I play now. But I'm thinking about going to VR next. I did a little checking, and it would cost a lot more to upgrade my current rig to be beefy enough to handle VR than it would be to just buy a rig designed to handle VR.

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    7. Re:Speculation: by Junta · · Score: 1

      I don't think it's that special. It's just that when someone does get sick, it's pretty quick and very pronounced. I don't think I've ever seen a 'percentage' study, mostly anecdotes. As such anecdotes where people feel like they are going to throw up are for more potent than anecdotes where nothing happened.

      My wife gets sick just seeing content on the tv that spins around and such, but she can do VR without issue... so long as movement is 1:1.

      Of course she doesn't really *care* to, but her disinterest is not due to physical reaction.

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    8. Re:Speculation: by Kjella · · Score: 1

      I've tried it at a friend's house and I think the biggest problem is what you'd do as a player. I mean realistically you're trapped in a very small box so it's either some variation of DDR where you do things on the spot which gets tiresome really fast or it's a simulator where you're in the driver/pilot's seat. And for the latter curved wide screens would get me most of the way there. I mean the cool thing is the motion tracking but it's mostly limited to duck and cover and peeking around corners. You can't run around like it's some paintball match, 99.9% of us just don't have the space. I still haven't seen any VR concept I'd consider playing for more than like 10-15 minutes.

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    9. Re:Speculation: by hairyfeet · · Score: 1

      Glasses are the issue I think. A LOT of people need glasses of some sort and from what I've seen with both 3D and VR those people are more likely to get sick when dealing with those techs.

      But I think the issue with VR is gonna be the same as 3D, the tech we have now is "good enough" for what most people want, same as how DVDs keep right on selling. I've tried VR and 3D and frankly I just find the experience of just having a couple of big fat monitors more than good enough for the games I play, even my flight games. Constantly having to whip my head around gives me neck strain after awhile and I just didn't find the whole VR thing very appealing, I guess my customer who was showing his off to me didn't care for it either because I noticed his VR rig for sale on CL about a month after he tried to get me interested in it.

      I just don't see how they are gonna compete with the comfort factor, with my PC rig I have my big comfy chair and a couple of big monitors, its about as relaxing as one can get and I can reach over and gab a sip of my coke or wolf down some pizza while I'm in a climb,its just so damned much more comfy than wearing the headgear and I don't have to sink crazy money and try to buy a new GPU while miners are sucking down graphics cards like drunks sucking down a free minibar so its a win/win for me to just skip it like I did the 3D TV fad.

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    10. Re:Speculation: by MrL0G1C · · Score: 1

      In my anecdotal experience, older people who were encouraged to use PCs by their children but typically let them get dusty much prefer tablets and smart-phones and are much less technophobic about smaller gadgets.

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  2. The role of the desktop can be done by other items by ctilsie242 · · Score: 1

    The desktop's role isn't going anywhere. However, in a lot of companies, the desktop computer is being replaced by laptops and docks, and at home, a lot of people find that a laptop serves their needs well enough that they don't need a desktop PC either.

    I am not surprised by this in the least. Desktop PCs will still always be around, but the role is easily handled by laptops and tablets like the Microsoft Surface and the Dell 2-in-1s, especially with breakout boxes for GPUs, so the heavy-lifting for gaming can stay in a separate box at home.

  3. Why would that increase PC demand... by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

    Perhaps demand will recover when the VR software/hardware makes it to the far side of the uncanny valley?

    But why would that be PC demand?

    The by far largest VR platform today is PSVR, because you don't have to worry about all of the PC crap to get the system to work.

    Sony continues to push and evolve VR in the home at a good clip. As hardware improves I don't see that changing a lot, the primary VR systems will either be mobile or console based.

    By the way I don't know what "uncanny valley" you are thinking of in relation to VR, the PSVR works quite well, the Vive especially well at making you feel like you are in the world. If Sony got better hand controllers that could really track movements as well as the Vive they could really make units move I think.

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    1. Re:Why would that increase PC demand... by thegreatbob · · Score: 1

      Meant to reply sooner, but the /. was borked (all the 503s)... for lack of a better term, I chose 'uncanny valley' to be an analog between realism in robots and realism/immersion in VR. For myself, I feel like we're starting the uphill climb on the far side of the valley. If someone has a better term (or explanation for a lack thereof), I'm open.

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    2. Re:Why would that increase PC demand... by SuperKendall · · Score: 1

      I agree we've only just started the uphill climb but I feel like we are across that valley. On the Vive especially there were a number of experiences (like a virtual bow and arrow that felt more real than odd). Even on the PSVR with it's poorer tracking device a few of the things I tried felt really immersive and tracked well...

      To me I think the key to real immersion in VR is a combination of head and hand tracking. The head tracking is now great almost across the board on all the "real" VR headsets. You can look around and everything changes as you'd expect. The hand tracking is shakier as it's a combination of controller and visual UI and UIX with the environment around you, but like I said some things seem to have cracked it to where I really feel like I am present in another place.

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      "There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
  4. Stop with the spin. by Lirodon · · Score: 1

    Spin it like this: Home building is killing the PC industry. And it should be that way.

  5. 100 meters per year by jfdavis668 · · Score: 1

    I read the title as "Desktop PC Shipments Dip Below 100 meters/ Year." I guess they weren't getting too deep.

    1. Re:100 meters per year by tomhath · · Score: 1

      This is slashdot. Units should be furlongs/fortnight.

  6. Re:The role of the desktop can be done by other it by magzteel · · Score: 1

    The desktop's role isn't going anywhere. However, in a lot of companies, the desktop computer is being replaced by laptops and docks, and at home, a lot of people find that a laptop serves their needs well enough that they don't need a desktop PC either.

    I am not surprised by this in the least. Desktop PCs will still always be around, but the role is easily handled by laptops and tablets like the Microsoft Surface and the Dell 2-in-1s, especially with breakout boxes for GPUs, so the heavy-lifting for gaming can stay in a separate box at home.

    For work I need a lot of desktop. A laptop is painful, and a tablet is impossible.
    I suppose it would be cool to have a high-end tablet that can hook to a dock with monitors, keyboard, and mouse but it sounds expensive.

  7. What about thin clients and VM's? by magzteel · · Score: 1

    My current and previous company have been replacing all physical Windows desktops with thin clients and VM's. This report doesn't address that trend.

    So it may be that physical desktop sales are down in part because the actual number of PC's (including VM's) in use is up.

  8. not news for nerds by swell · · Score: 1

    And why do nerds care about desktop computer sales? Isn't that a matter for Wall Street? And it isn't news any way to people not living in caves. Is there anyone alive who doesn't know that train has left the station? Desktop computers have their place and that won't change any time soon. Laptops also have their place, very well established, and again there won't be any remarkable change in sales figures. The smartphone industry is also matured to a point where it is very predictable. So, please, let's not waste nerds' time with 'news' about routine product sales figures.

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  9. Re:Cause and effect by Sperbels · · Score: 1

    Explain. Traditionally new versions of Windows actually drive PC sales because each new version is slower than the last.

  10. Re:I want a new gaming desktop.... by Junta · · Score: 1

    This phenomenon is to be expected, sadly, as the mass market appeal diminishes.

    For a time, high end computer and what the general market needed overlapped very nicely, and the high volumes made high end computing very affordable.

    Now the general market is served by a pretty distinct set of configurations, and the high end of the market goes back up.

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  11. Maybe Because There's No Need For New Ones? by Tempest_2084 · · Score: 1

    I'm still using the same Core i7 desktop I built 10 years ago as my main computer and it works just fine. I don't game on my PC, just web surfing, email, and streaming. Other than upgrading the RAM from 6GB to 12GB and putting in a new (well old, but newer than what I was using (GTX 260 to Radeon 7770)) graphics card that I was given for free a few years back I haven't done anything with it. I remember when you had to upgrade your computer ever 3-4 years just to run all the latest programs (mostly games, but productivity as well) but now you can hang onto your old PC until it dies and still be alright. I can't think of anything that won't run on my PC at the moment other than maybe some of the newest games. The days of constant upgrades are over.