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Scientists Unsure Where Chinese Space Station Will Crash To Earth
In 2016, the Chinese space agency lost control of its Tiangong-1, or Heavenly Palace, spacecraft, five years after it blasted into orbit. Scientists have determined that it will come crashing down to Earth in the coming weeks, be they do not know exactly where on Earth it will hit. The Guardian reports: The defunct module is now at an altitude of 150 miles and being tracked by space agencies around the world, with the European Space Agency's center in Darmstadt predicting a fiery descent for it between March 27 and April 8. Hurtling around the Earth at about 18,000mph, the module ranks as one of the larger objects to re-enter the atmosphere without being steered towards the ocean, as is standard for big and broken spacecraft, and cargo vessels that are jettisoned from the International Space Station (ISS), to reduce the risk to life below. The spacecraft's orbit ranges from 43 degrees north to 43 degrees south, which rules out a descent over the UK but includes vast stretches of North and South America, China, the Middle East, Africa, Australia, parts of Europe -- and great swaths of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Western analysts cannot be sure how much of the spacecraft will survive re-entry, because China has not released details of the design and materials used to make Tiangong-1. But the spacecraft may have well-protected titanium fuel tanks containing toxic hydrazine that could pose a danger if they land in populated areas.
Places on the approximate 43N latitude include New York, Rome, Tblisi, Beijing, South Dakota/Nebraska border
Places near 43S include Puerto Montt (southern/middle Chile), Tasmania, New Zealand. Pretty much everything is above 43S.
We can track its orbit very well. The unknown is the amount of air resistance it encounters, i.e. how quickly its orbit will degrade. This resistance is highly variable (because the atmosphere expands and contracts e.g. in response to solar activity) and difficult to predict.