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Scientists Unsure Where Chinese Space Station Will Crash To Earth

Posted by BeauHD on from the heads-up dept.

In 2016, the Chinese space agency lost control of its Tiangong-1, or Heavenly Palace, spacecraft, five years after it blasted into orbit. Scientists have determined that it will come crashing down to Earth in the coming weeks, be they do not know exactly where on Earth it will hit. The Guardian reports: The defunct module is now at an altitude of 150 miles and being tracked by space agencies around the world, with the European Space Agency's center in Darmstadt predicting a fiery descent for it between March 27 and April 8. Hurtling around the Earth at about 18,000mph, the module ranks as one of the larger objects to re-enter the atmosphere without being steered towards the ocean, as is standard for big and broken spacecraft, and cargo vessels that are jettisoned from the International Space Station (ISS), to reduce the risk to life below. The spacecraft's orbit ranges from 43 degrees north to 43 degrees south, which rules out a descent over the UK but includes vast stretches of North and South America, China, the Middle East, Africa, Australia, parts of Europe -- and great swaths of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Western analysts cannot be sure how much of the spacecraft will survive re-entry, because China has not released details of the design and materials used to make Tiangong-1. But the spacecraft may have well-protected titanium fuel tanks containing toxic hydrazine that could pose a danger if they land in populated areas.

10 of 78 comments (clear)

  1. Obligatory Dead Like Me by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    Oh shit.

    1. Re:Obligatory Dead Like Me by nospam007 · · Score: 2, Funny

      " Look out kids--cause no one wants to be known as that-person-who-got-killed-by-a-toilet-seat."

      Kids? I have an orange 72 year-old in mind.

  2. The region 43N to 43S by DrTJ · · Score: 4, Informative

    Places on the approximate 43N latitude include New York, Rome, Tblisi, Beijing, South Dakota/Nebraska border
    Places near 43S include Puerto Montt (southern/middle Chile), Tasmania, New Zealand. Pretty much everything is above 43S.

  3. Satellite killer missiles by Hadlock · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Both the US and China have ground (or in our case Fighter Jet) launched systems capable of destroying a satellite. If it's re-entering in two weeks then it's destruction won't contribute to Kessler syndrome. I'm sure either county is just dying to exercise this system as it's been mostly dormant for the last year.

    --
    moox. for a new generation.
    1. Re: Satellite killer missiles by kurkosdr · · Score: 2

      Amen.

    2. Re:Satellite killer missiles by Ol+Olsoc · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Both the US and China have ground (or in our case Fighter Jet) launched systems capable of destroying a satellite. If it's re-entering in two weeks then it's destruction won't contribute to Kessler syndrome. I'm sure either county is just dying to exercise this system as it's been mostly dormant for the last year.

      In orbit destruction is just about the last thing you want to do.

      While space powers have the ability to destroy satellites, an operation that is pretty simple in fact, the very act makes a terrible mess, and a big satellite like the Chinese space station will make a hellava lot of debris.

      Getting enough of this debris in orbit will make the LEO neighborhood pretty much unusable, and enough of it will act as a barrier to anything trying to get through.

      There is a well known axiom that our first war in space will be our last one for a long time, until most of the debris de-orbits.

      Strategically the only real option is to let the thing de-orbit it self, and let the shit fall where it may.

      --
      The shepherds did so well protecting the flock that the sheep no longer believed that wolves existed.
  4. The Russians could help, I guess by bogaboga · · Score: 2

    it will come crashing down to Earth in the coming weeks, be they do not know exactly where on Earth it will hit.

    How about engaging those Russians to hit it out of the sky with one of their S-400/500 missile systems.

    With missiles that can fly at Mach 15 and a range of over 400Km, Russians should be able to help.

  5. South China Spaceport? by MiniMike · · Score: 4, Funny

    When it crashes will the Chinese will plant a flag there, build an airstrip, and claim that the area had always been part of China's space program?

    1. Re:South China Spaceport? by PPH · · Score: 5, Funny

      No. But if it crashes in the USA, Trump will charge them a tariff for importing steel and aluminum.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
  6. Re:Why can't they predict its path? by hackertourist · · Score: 4, Informative

    We can track its orbit very well. The unknown is the amount of air resistance it encounters, i.e. how quickly its orbit will degrade. This resistance is highly variable (because the atmosphere expands and contracts e.g. in response to solar activity) and difficult to predict.