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University of Arizona Tracks Student ID Card Swipes To Detect Who Might Drop Out (theverge.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from The Verge: The University of Arizona is tracking freshman students' ID card swipes to anticipate which students are more likely to drop out. University researchers hope to use the data to lower dropout rates. (Dropping out refers to those who have left higher-education entirely and those who transfer to other colleges.) The card data tells researchers how frequently a student has entered a residence hall, library, and the student recreation center, which includes a salon, convenience store, mail room, and movie theater. The cards are also used for buying vending machine snacks and more, putting the total number of locations near 700. There's a sensor embedded in the CatCard student IDs, which are given to every student attending the university. Researchers have gathered freshman data over a three-year time frame so far, and they found that their predictions for who is more likely to drop out are 73 percent accurate. They also have plans to give academic advisers an online dashboard to look at student data in real time. "By getting their digital traces, you can explore their patterns of movement, behavior and interactions, and that tells you a great deal about them," Sudha Ram, a professor of management information systems who directs the initiative, said in a press release.
The article is void on information on what specific statistics indicate a student is more likely to drop out. Are students who use their ID card to go to the rec center more likely to drop out over students who us it to enter the library? The article doesn't say.
Bayesian solutions should be capable of >80%.
The alledged wisdom of the crowds should get close to Bayes.
73% is a miss. They should take a class.