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FedEx Embraces More Robots Without Firing Humans (nytimes.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report: As soon as the first robot arrived at a FedEx shipping hub in the heart of North Carolina tobacco country early last year, talk of pink slips was in the air. Workers had been driving the "tuggers" that navigated large and irregular items across the vast concrete floor of the 630,000-square-foot freight depot since it opened in 2011. Their initial robotic colleague drew a three-dimensional digital map of the place as it tugged freight around. A few months later, three other robots -- nicknamed Lucky, Dusty and Ned in a nod to the movie "iThree Amigos!" -- arrived, using the digital map to get around on their own. By March, they were joined by two others, Jefe and El Guapo. Horns honking and warning lights flashing, the autonomous vehicles snaked through the hub, next to about 20 tuggers that still needed humans behind the wheel. [...] But what has happened at the FedEx hub may be a surprise to people who fear that they are about to be replaced by a smart machine: a robot might take your role, but not necessarily your job. Yes, the robots replaced a few jobs right away. And in time, they will replace about 25 jobs in a facility that employs about 1,300 people. But the hub creates about 100 new jobs every year -- and a robot work force still seems like the distant future.

96 comments

  1. My little buttercup... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Troll

    ...has the sweetest smile.

    1. Re:My little buttercup... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Troll? Far from it. Excellent Three Amigos allusion.

    2. Re:My little buttercup... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Some mod has obviously never seen Three Amigos.

      Tell me Jefe, what is a plethora?

    3. Re:My little buttercup... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Even if it wasn't a Three Amigos reference, I am unable to figure out how anyone could call it a troll. Off topic for sure (again, that is if this was not a Three Amigos reference), but troll?

  2. Temporary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The firing will come next month when the humans are done training their replacements.

    1. Re: Temporary by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, it made me ask myself, "So FedEx are only spending all that time, effort, and money because they just love robots? What would their shareholders say?" Then I thought, "I wonder what they're telling their shareholders about this? What's their justification?"

    2. Re:Temporary by geoskd · · Score: 1

      The firing will come next month when the humans are done training their replacements.

      These companies (Fed Ex, UPS, DHL, etc...) all have massive turnover problems. Last I had seen, UPS was turning over 50% of their part time workforce every year. They don't have to fire anybody to replace the workforce with robots, just stop hiring for 3 months...

      The union at UPS (Teamsters if anyone cares) is royally screwed. The company wants to bring in automated vehicles, and automated sorting, and all manner of other productivity enhancements and human labor replacement technologies, but the company has no interest in firing anyone. They just want to avoid having to be continually hiring. Those people that work there, will continue to have a job for as long as they want, but when they leave or retire, they will be replaced with a robot instead of a human.

      This means that the workforce doesn't really care one way or the other. Their job is assured, but the union will see dwindling membership and reduced income from dues which means that all those people that work down at the union hall are going to be the only ones who actually find themselves out of a job. I can't say I have a lot of sympathy for them either, most union officials were just as big of douchebags as the managers.

      --
      I wish I had a good sig, but all the good ones are copyrighted
  3. Who wants a job that can be done by a robot? by Camel+Pilot · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Not I.

    1. Re:Who wants a job that can be done by a robot? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The proper question is "Who wants a job."

      As there will definitely be far fewer viable jobs that can't be done by robots compared to people lining up to do them. And I doubt you'll be top pick for those few jobs.

    2. Re:Who wants a job that can be done by a robot? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Duh. We already have bots that post stupid shit online JUST LIKE YOU.

    3. Re:Who wants a job that can be done by a robot? by Jahta · · Score: 1

      Well as more and more jobs are taken by AI-driven automation, the bigger question is how many jobs will be left for humans?

      The idea that technology will magically create vast numbers of new jobs to compensate for the ones lost - the so-called luddite fallacy - doesn't work in a world where employers are deploying automation specifically to reduce their expensive human head count.

    4. Re:Who wants a job that can be done by a robot? by Camel+Pilot · · Score: 1

      Well as more and more jobs are taken by
      AI-driven automation, the bigger question is how many jobs
      will be left for humans?

      Currently people work well in the 60's and even 70's and work 40 hours a week with a mere 2 weeks of vacation. OK so people retire in the 40's and 50's or change the work week to 32 hours, etc. Why not embrace the increase in productivity instead of fearing it or worse impede its inevitability?

    5. Re:Who wants a job that can be done by a robot? by Jahta · · Score: 2

      Well as more and more jobs are taken by AI-driven automation, the bigger question is how many jobs will be left for humans?

      Currently people work well in the 60's and even 70's and work 40 hours a week with a mere 2 weeks of vacation. OK so people retire in the 40's and 50's or change the work week to 32 hours, etc. Why not embrace the increase in productivity instead of fearing it or worse impede its inevitability?

      This misses the point; companies are embracing automation (and "increased productivity") as a way of getting people off the payroll and the pension scheme. Who is going to pay people to retire in their 40s and 50s? Who is going to pay people an income they can live on for working part-time? Even today in the UK there are millions of people on "zero hours" contracts which do not guarantee them any work (and therefore any pay) in any given week/month. These people are technically not unemployed, but they have to rely on welfare to survive.

      A future where we all somehow live lives of comfort and leisure while machines do all the work is a utopian fantasy.

    6. Re:Who wants a job that can be done by a robot? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds great. .. except that the industrial revolution was supposed to provide that too.

    7. Re:Who wants a job that can be done by a robot? by geoskd · · Score: 1

      Currently people work well in the 60's and even 70's and work 40 hours a week with a mere 2 weeks of vacation. OK so people retire in the 40's and 50's or change the work week to 32 hours, etc. Why not embrace the increase in productivity instead of fearing it or worse impede its inevitability?

      The problem is that labor follows the law of supply and demand just like everything else in capitalist economics, and the labor supply at the lowest skill levels vastly outstrips demand already. That is why average wages have been stagnant for nearly an entire generation. The only thing preventing wages from actually falling in the bottom brackets is minimum wage laws. The trouble is that it is now becoming viable to simply replace the human workers outright, which only makes the supply and demand economics worse for unskilled and low skill laborers.

      As technology gets more sophisticated, this same effect is working its way up the skill levels. At the current rate of progress, within one generation, the supply of laborers with an IQ less than 100 will outstrip the demand for such laborers by nearly 3 to 1. It does absolutely no good that the demand for 130+ IQ will be sky high, since no amount of training will allow a below 100 worker to do a 130+ job. The only way to convert below 100 workers into 130+ workers is with a huge investment in education (Think trillions of dollars per decade) at all grade levels. Start education at 3 years old, and put the same resources into every child as the left wants to put into special needs children. Treat each one like they might be the next Einstein.

      But, that is not what we will do. What we will do is continue to marginalize ever greater portions of the population, and continue to argue over the mostly irrelevant minimum wage like that is the solution to anything. We might even try a Universal Basic Income scheme that is destined to failure juts like every other flavor of communism that has come before it. Maybe we will even start internment camps for the poor or forced sterilizations. God knows, we're a fucked up country already, it wouldn't take much to go that extra mile...

      All told, I hope it never comes to that, but I'm teaching my kids how to handle anything that might happen, just in case it really does get ugly.

      --
      I wish I had a good sig, but all the good ones are copyrighted
  4. It does not take you job... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    As long as there is another job to be done.

    It is just PR. Here is how it will work. A company would get bad PR if it fired someone after putting in a robot, so they shift the job somewhere else and spend more on keeping an employee they don't need until someone quits, then that person does not get replaced.

    1. Re:It does not take you job... by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Indeed. Or the use the increased capacity to kill a competitor. Or the jobs are lost in retail, due to more online shopping. As this is extremely obvious to anybody with half a clue that almost all jobs lost to automation are not coming back, everybody tries very hard to give the impression to not be involved in this, even when they clearly are. As people are generally stupid and have short memories (see elections), obfuscating the issue this way will most likely work, at least until the effects become extremely obvious.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    2. Re:It does not take you job... by jaymemaurice · · Score: 1

      Forget the rate of job creation should increase with population creation, naturally.
      Their customer base should be growing day by day, so if their workforce is not growing accordingly, automation is taking jobs and this is all PR.

      --
      120 characters ought to be enough for anyone
    3. Re:It does not take you job... by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Another factor, yes. And there will be others. Fact is that robots and other automation create a tiny number of highly qualified jobs, but nothing else. They do remove a lot of jobs formerly done by humans though. It really is very, very obvious what is going on.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  5. AI by 110010001000 · · Score: 2

    This will change once AI comes to the facility. Already AI is making huge progress. Ever seen a job opening for a Chess or Go Master, or one for a Jeopardy Contestant? Now you know why!

    1. Re:AI by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      AI on blockchain in the cloud!

    2. Re:AI by ITapeFatCashews · · Score: 0

      It would make sense to have AI replace workers in niche jobs like Chess, Go and Jeopardy.

    3. Re:AI by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

      Why would you have a blockchain in your butt?

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    4. Re: AI by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'll tell you if you pull my finger.

  6. For now. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Once the robots are reliable, goodbye humans.

  7. Dodgy math by Tablizer · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The math could be misleading. Without the bots, Fedex may be hiring more humans. With the bots, they keep the number of humans the same but expand with bots instead. If/when there's a slump, they then dump humans such that they employee less humans than they would otherwise.

    As far as the argument that "automation has always made new jobs", that could be true, but the displaced people may not be qualified for them. It appears that on the larger scale, automation and global trade are creating increasing inequality as it becomes a winner-take-all economy. Warren Buffett admitted his investment company can take on bigger risks, giving total average higher rewards, because it's big enough to spread the risk around, something smaller competitors don't have by definition. The "network effect" is taking over every industry.

    Therefore, the issue may not be so much "fear the bots" as it is "fear inequality".

    1. Re:Dodgy math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      +1

      GDP going up doesn't mean that everyone is better off; most gains in recent years have gone primarily to those who need it least.

    2. Re:Dodgy math by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 2

      Without the bots, Fedex may be hiring more humans. With the bots, they keep the number of humans the same but expand with bots instead. If/when there's a slump, they then dump humans such that they employee less humans than they would otherwise.

      Yes, that's the point. Basically, at some point, 90% of our workforce was farming. Could you imagine if 90% of people were busy farming? What would we manufacture? How would we have technology? We would be producing only the output of our farm sector, and nothing else.

      We're diverting that labor elsewhere.

    3. Re:Dodgy math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > the hub creates about 100 new jobs every year
      There's a temporary argument for "free" job creations, as growth. But the funny thing is, X% growth in shipping demand would imply almost exactly X% more jobs needed by the population.

      And if X was represented by 100 new jobs before, now we have 100 people looking to fill them (proportional growth) and thanks to the Three Amigos, only 80 became available. Not that I suggest preventing their deployment is a solution*, or even a feasible demand.

      Also, ask the phone industry how infinite growth and no-such-thing-as-plateau is working out.

      *The answer, if any, lies in addressing the insoluble problem of finding a way to move a tiny bit of money back down (previous answer: labor) to the masses somehow (stretch goal: find a use for said masses). I have no answer, and am glad I was born while we proles have something to sell.

    4. Re:Dodgy math by Kjella · · Score: 1

      Warren Buffett admitted his investment company can take on bigger risks, giving total average higher rewards, because it's big enough to spread the risk around, something smaller competitors don't have by definition. The "network effect" is taking over every industry.

      This is something people with lots of money have tried to claim many times yet the average age of a S&P company is under 20 years down from 60 years in 1958. It's not so simple that mega-corporations throw their weight around and win industry after industry just by being big. There's plenty room for new companies even though many of them get bought out eventually.

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    5. Re:Dodgy math by Xylantiel · · Score: 1

      You are assuming that the demand for shipping is independent of its cost. Another possibility is that the total amount spent on shipping is the thing that is more fixed, so that as shipping becomes less expensive per item due to robots, more items get shipped. If the principle cost of shipping is labor (be it doing the work or making/maintaining the robots) then the number of "jobs" doesn't change, the amount that can be shipped for the same cost increases instead.

    6. Re:Dodgy math by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      We're diverting that labor elsewhere.

      Which is where? At least those farmers, and later factory workers, had jobs that could raise a family. It's hard to raise a family flipping burgers or greeting at Walmart. As mentioned in my original message, the benefits of automation/trade are often lopsided.

      Anger over factory job loss is a large part of why we have an unusual President right now: the swing states happen to be those screwed by automation and lopsided trade.

      If you benefit 60% by throwing 40% under the bus, the political backlash can be Yuuuuge. You may get a $12 lawn-chair, which is great for YOU, but another person loses a job: they'll tell you where you can put your $12 lawn-chair.

      Hillary more or less told them "shut up and live with change", and look where that got her. What she should have done is level with them and say that better vocational education is the only realistic solution to factory loss, and that by taxing the rich, more can go to college and vocational school. She kind of did say that, but in a clunky indirect way. Bernie did it a bit better, but still was not forthright enough about the factory losses. T's pie-in-sky claims to resurrect the past ("MAGA") thus looked worth-a-try in comparison.

      Human pride and dignity, per jobs, can be more powerful than cheap widgets. Whether that's "logical" may be moot. Humans be humans.

    7. Re:Dodgy math by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      There's plenty room for new companies even though many of them get bought out eventually.

      Yes, bought out by the big conglomerates. Your statistic may reflect that companies don't last as long as they once did, even the big ones. But during their reign, the big co's often yield great control. The length of the reign is secondary.

      Average CEO pay is clearly larger than in the past, compared to average salaries, and the top CEO pay is very much larger.

    8. Re:Dodgy math by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      At least those farmers, and later factory workers, had jobs that could raise a family.

      I'm describing labor as a mass-noun. Note that, since 1940, we've spiked up the productivity by more than a dozen times, stopped making a bunch of stuff and instead imported it, and increased our labor force participation rate from 59% to 66%. We keep bottoming out at around 5% unemployment between recessions.

      If you benefit 60% by throwing 40% under the bus, the political backlash can be Yuuuuge.

      No kidding. The rate of change has to remain slow enough to not nudge unemployment up by about a percentage point at any given time or you get a pretty bad recession. Typically, the rate of change holds us at equilibrium, while faster change bumps us by a tenth of a percent or so. 2010 showed what happens when you lose 5% of your jobs over a year.

      You may get a $12 lawn-chair, which is great for YOU, but another person loses a job

      That's why we have welfare and other social safety nets. I designed a better one, too. You have to keep people's lifestyle and financial position in order and ensure there's enough effective demand to rebuild the economy around them and get them back into a job. Full employment is 2%-3%, by economists's estimates; driving up effective demand enough to hit a target below that will keep us at a slight labor shortage, and holding an equilibrium with strong social safety nets will keep us at a higher pace (more technological turn-over) with the economic capacity to re-employ these people and avoid the economic fall-out.

      T's pie-in-sky claims to resurrect the past

      Trump is an idiot. He thinks technical progress is bad, trade is bad, and going back to the Bronze age is good. He basically wants to take all the labor shift to things like CISCO, Netflix, high-speed Internet, satellite communications, and medicine and say, "Hey, guys, stop doing that and go back to making steel and bricks! Let the rest of the world go into the future; America should be one giant FoxConn factory, complete with netting around the roofs!"

      It's Trumpese thinking that gets us people pointing at machines and automation and screaming that the jobs are going away and we're all going to be poor.

    9. Re:Dodgy math by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      and increased our labor force participation rate from 59% to 66%.

      That can be interpreted 2 ways: more who want to work can, or that more have to work to make ends meet instead of take care of family, etc. That's a bigger sprawling topic.

      We keep bottoming out at around 5% unemployment between recessions.

      But our recessions have arguably been getting longer and deeper.

      That's why we have welfare and other social safety nets.

      That's one approach to spreading the wealth, but another is to tax the rich and use it to expand vocational education. Our country would be more competitive in the process.

      I designed a better one, too.

      Link doesn't work for me.

      Trump is an idiot. He thinks technical progress is bad, trade is bad, and going back to the Bronze age is good.

      That may be true, but my point was and is that raw efficiency may be secondary to other human desires/emotions, which could be why T was elected. Logic and human nature/politics are not the same.

    10. Re:Dodgy math by gweihir · · Score: 1

      "May be"? It is so bloody obviously bogus it is staggering. The issue also is not that automation does not create new jobs (what an utterly demented level to argue on), the issue is that automation kills a lot of jobs and creates a tiny number of replacements.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    11. Re:Dodgy math by greenwow · · Score: 1

      If other things are like self checkout-outs in grocery stores, then they do create new jobs. A friend that worked with Safeway said they cost more and require more people. The labor costs of just the travel time between stores for repairs is staggering. I know from going to my local Safeway every week that their four self check-outs are not that much faster than a single good cashier plus those four self check-outs require.an employee to oversee them so it's not a great gain even if you ignore all of the other extra costs. The reason they have them is customer demand. The customers want them.

    12. Re:Dodgy math by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      That can be interpreted 2 ways: more who want to work can, or that more have to work to make ends meet instead of take care of family, etc.

      I keep pointing out the second because people try to frame the labor force participation rate as the real unemployment rate. In this context, however, it shows that there are jobs for humans--not just that some percentage of those looking for work are able to work. So all of this tech hasn't been making jobs simply evaporate forever.

      our recessions have arguably been getting longer and deeper.

      If you graph LNS14000000 back to 1948, that statement is more-questionable.

      That's one approach to spreading the wealth, but another is to tax the rich and use it to expand vocational education.

      Vocational training is one part of it; but first, the jobs have to be available. You don't necessarily need to tax the rich, either, although we do need a revenue source and that's the likely one for adding a new universal college initiative. For universal healthcare, it's like 1.6%; for a universal dividend, the top tax rate actually falls by 3.6%, which makes room to get universal healthcare, college, and some tax shuffling in before you start raising that top bracket (it ends up at some 43% with everything including funding Social Security retirement and disability benefits exclusively by taxing the highest bracket). The Dividend actually ends poverty.

      I generally try to avoid tax increases as best I can--the Dividend is designed to move the income level at which you're paying $0 or less in taxes upwards over time, and to lower costs (and taxes in general) strikingly around that level. Efficiency and fiscal responsibility are important: how do we pay for anything like free college and healthcare when we're already taxing at 100%?

      Link doesn't work for me.

      Works for me in an incognito window by copying the link on slashdot and pasting it into an incognito window in chrome. This is a work-in-progress that starts outlining the same thing. It looks like it dropped the query, so maybe this one for the whitepaper?.

      my point was and is that raw efficiency may be secondary to other human desires/emotions, which could be why T was elected.

      It's security. Individual people--and groups of individuals--need security.

    13. Re:Dodgy math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And if X was represented by 100 new jobs before, now we have 100 people looking to fill them (proportional growth) and thanks to the Three Amigos, only 80 became available. Not that I suggest preventing their deployment is a solution*, or even a feasible demand.

      We still have male planes - at least that hasn't been automated yet.

    14. Re:Dodgy math by rogoshen1 · · Score: 1

      Productivity and workforce participation are both much higher since the 1940's, yet real wages are considerably lower.

      Gee. why on earth would that be?

      Automation is absolutely guaranteed to reverse that, right?

    15. Re:Dodgy math by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      yet real wages are considerably lower

      So, the real median household buys less stuff and lives at a lower standard-of-living than everyone else, with e.g. a car bought for the same percentage of the annual income by the same income-percentile family (notably median) containing fewer features than the one sold back in the 1940s?

      Internet has gotten slower since dial-up, phones are more-expensive, and cell phone service has only grown to consume a greater portion of the median wage--of course, nobody has cell phones, because they were way too expensive for the average family to begin with.

      That's what it means when wages are lower: you work more hours and get less stuff, whether that be that you purchase fewer things or that the things you purchase have fewer features and otherwise lower standards. You'd spend 56% of the median income on a new car in 1995 and have anti-lock brakes, airbags, and a CD player; in 2005, you'd spend 56% of the median income and have standard brakes, no air bags, and a plain FM radio.

    16. Re:Dodgy math by jmv · · Score: 1

      What you're saying has been historically true. Jobs have moved from farming to manufacturing. Then from manufacturing to services. The problem is that for now we have nothing after services. Sure, there's R&D, but unless something radical happens, it's not a sector where you can reasonably expect a huge number of service workers to move to. So unless we find a "new sector" real soon, we're heading into uncharted territory (not necessarily bad, but we don't know).

    17. Re:Dodgy math by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Self-checkouts are not automating a job. They are merely shifting the job from the cashier (a professional) to the customer (an amateur). It is not surprising they take longer. No, the thing is self-checkout is for is data gathering on customer behavior and that makes it worthwhile.

      So, no. Almost all applications of automation to remove jobs are not like this at all.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    18. Re: Dodgy math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It doesn't actually work that way. I'm going to avoid being long winded, but when a company makes money they can expand their operations. When companies lose money, they hire fewer workers. Life isn't a zero sum game.

    19. Re:Dodgy math by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      this is a consequence o unrealistic expectations...if you stack shelves you can't afford car holidays big social life ... real value wages are increasing...and pricing themselves out of the market.
      however to balance a bit note we are seeing population decline - how many people you know are having 2 kids these days? it worries me.

    20. Re:Dodgy math by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      If you graph LNS14000000 back to 1948, that statement is more-questionable.

      To me, the recoveries look quicker the further back one goes. The right-facing slopes are shallower toward recent years.

      Vocational training is one part of it; but first, the jobs have to be available.

      In general, the available and/or well-paying jobs require ever-more education and skill. Mindless grunt-work is being replaced by machines and 3rd-world foreign labor.

      It's security. Individual people--and groups of individuals--need security.

      There's a lot other emotions involved. Security is just one. Ego is also a very powerful motivator, especially for males. Many males will even sacrifice security to serve their ego.

    21. Re:Dodgy math by Athanasius · · Score: 1

      Indeed there are a lot of different permutations of "hire humans", "fire humans", "keep humans" along with "more/fewer robots".

      Whilst this might lead to no humans fired, and even still additional humans hired, with the robots being leveraged only to increase efficiency of that workforce and thus create greater revenue (and presumably profit), it's also possible that, despite hiring more humans still, it would have been even more humans without the robots.

      Still, I wouldn't knock them for being at least willing to keep jobs open to humans at this stage.

    22. Re:Dodgy math by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      To me, the recoveries look quicker the further back one goes.

      Fair enough. The rises are smaller, too; although sometimes the trough between is at a higher unemployment rate than others, and those 80s recessions came in the middle of other recessions. It's always been chaos.

      Mindless grunt-work is being replaced by machines and 3rd-world foreign labor.

      We're kind of doing both. Most people ignore this, creating a huge argument between the "nobody will have jobs because not everyone is smart enough to be an engineer" camp and the "we'll have jobs, but it will all be minimum-wage machine babysitting that requires an IQ of 4" camp.

      Security is just one. Ego is also a very powerful motivator, especially for males. Many males will even sacrifice security to serve their ego.

      Egotism is a natural result of a social species being such that rejection from the social group severely reduces your chances of survival. Egomania is essentially a neurotic behavior in which this risk of social rejection creates a great sense of insecurity. Stability is seen as everyone else constantly affirming that you're great.

      Economic efficiency allows you to more-reliably provide physical and social security. Pull these out and those people get even worse.

    23. Re:Dodgy math by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      Jobs have moved from farming to manufacturing. Then from manufacturing to services. The problem is that for now we have nothing after services.

      Jobs haven't moved from sector to sector as a rule. Jobs are created by consumer purchasing power; historically, technological advances (technical progress) have reduced the amount of labor, thus the TIME x WAGE cost, to produce things. When those things are things consumers are buying, more competitors can enter the market (lower barrier to entry), and price competition drives prices toward costs. With wages remaining the same and labor time invested in a good falling, the purchasing power of a consumer increases, and thus the consumer can buy more of the same thing (keeping those same jobs by keeping the labor demand) or buy some other thing (creating other jobs to replace those lost).

      Essentially, if it takes more than zero human labor to operate at a higher output than current, jobs are a net zero sum game: the machines change who has what job, but not how many jobs we can support in a settled post-transition state. We can impact the number of jobs by e.g. raising the minimum wage, lowering the number of working hours, or adjusting taxes; although it will tend to move toward the same level of job scarcity.

      Think like this: we're not getting machines that can do landscaping and lawn care, kitchen remodeling, or plumbing without human operators any time soon. That's a more-complex task than automatic driving. We'll shrink the team involved in any one job and the time they spend completing their task. As all of these jobs start vanishing in e.g. trucking, we'll need more mechanics--but not one mechanic per truck. That's a lot of labor for which nobody has to pay anymore--lots of unemployed truckers. All your goods become cheaper. You can buy more goods, and you still have money left over to pay someone to mow your lawn, tend your garden, and get to all those remodeling projects you were going to DIY long ago--just like rich folks, except you're a middle-income office jockey.

      The usual rebuttal to any particular job anyone can think of being a thing you can buy now that everything is cheaper is, "Yeah, but the machines will take that, too!" People tend to imagine the machines are going to do everything, without any earthly idea how. Karl Marx predicted back in the 1800s that all humans could rest and we could let machines do all our work right then and there, but rich capitalists were too addicted to control. For the past thousands of years (and especially the past century), we've been complaining rich capitalists are too addicted to laying off people as soon as a machine can do their job, or calling up a cheap off-shore worker to do it for lower pay. Turns out the world is not a sci-fi novel.

    24. Re:Dodgy math by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      I'll have to disagree with your psychology models.

  8. North Carolina tobacco country by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wanna make a bet this right wing territory?

    Oh, gee, how did I know????

    1. Re:North Carolina tobacco country by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Oh, gee, how did I know????

      Because you are a mindless partisan hack.

  9. The robot elephant behind the wheel. by geekmux · · Score: 4, Interesting

    That's a cute story, but everyone seems to be ignoring the elephant in the room. Or more to the point, the human no longer behind the wheel.

    Sure, a robot may not completely take a job in this case, but how much can you expect to make an hour when your job title is changed from "Heavy Equipment Operator" to "Robot Babysitter"?

    Let's stop ignoring or dismissing the impact already. If robots did not make work cheaper and more efficient, no company would be buying the damn things. And if there's an opportunity to lower costs (read: salaries), you better believe a company will do it.

    1. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by bluefoxlucid · · Score: 1

      If robots did not make work cheaper and more efficient, no company would be buying the damn things. And if there's an opportunity to lower costs (read: salaries), you better believe a company will do it.

      Actually, if you expand with +100 jobs to do a thing, but now you can add +100 jobs by hiring 4 people and buying some robots that cost about what 4 more do, you've added +8 jobs across the entire economy to accomplish your specific +100 job task. Consider that paying all of this costs 8 cents on the dollar without lowering anyone's wage.

      FedEx ships things. With a lower cost per unit goods shipped, FedEx can take business from UPS--or vice versa. Amazon is trying to do this to both of them. That's called price competition, and it leaves money in consumers's hands--money with which they buy more stuff, which creates jobs elsewhere. Maybe they buy more medical care, or more televisions, or something like Netflix or high-speed Internet. Maybe they're poor as shit and can actually buy enough food to feed their families (businesses use FedEx to ship equipment and other operationally-necessary things, too, which passes costs of shipping to the consumer).

      Seriously, why would you reducing the cost of 100 x $10/hr when the 100x component shrinks would require reducing the $10/hr component? Do you not know about multiplication? Napir's bones, man.

    2. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by gurps_npc · · Score: 1

      Robot baby sitters get paid MORE than heavy equiptment manager. It requires higher skill.

      The basic mistake you are making is the "Lump of Labor Fallacy". There is no set amount of work to do, there is UNLIMITED work to do. Work is not created, it is released. We don't work to fulfill needs, we work to fulfill wants. 5000 years ago most of our workers were in agriculture. The tech that made these farmers redundant freed them up to do other jobs that were not as important as feeding ourselves. Those new jobs were 'luxury' jobs that we did without before. Now our society has become dependent on those jobs and they have been re-classified as must haves, not luxuries. New jobs that will be considered more 'nice to have' rather than 'must have' will be discovered.

      Note that word, discovered, not created. The jobs will fill old needs that went unmet, not create new needs.

      Yes, new tech displaces workers. It requires new skills, and worse, we don't know how many people we will need with each new skill, so there is the chance you will train for a job and then not get a job doing it.

      But there is ALWAYS new work to do, and generally better paying work.

      --
      excitingthingstodo.blogspot.com
    3. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "But there is ALWAYS new work to do, and generally better paying work."

      [citation needed]

    4. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by Kjella · · Score: 1

      Sure, a robot may not completely take a job in this case, but how much can you expect to make an hour when your job title is changed from "Heavy Equipment Operator" to "Robot Babysitter"?

      How do you think it went when it changed from "Ditch Digger" to "Heavy Equipment Babysitter"? I don't see any reason to worry about how advanced the work would be or how well it will be paid for the person lucky enough to get the job. But usually automation means doing more with less people, how that will affect the job market depends on the elasticity of the market. If you're making say toothbrushes you have a rather fixed market, I need one plus a spare for travel and changing the price won't really affect that. But if you could make airplane tickets cost half as much I'd travel more. And if you can turn a luxury or research project into a commodity like say a microwave oven then you can create entirely new markets. That is, if anyone has money to pay you with...

      --
      Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
    5. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by onyxruby · · Score: 1

      Actually the robot attendant (technician) probably makes better money than whatever their old job was. The issue becomes when companies use robots to reduce total head count. Some companies reduce the work force, others train their works to do things that can't readily be done with robots and expand their business.

      It's a lesson I learned year ago when I first saw what automation could do in the computer field. It was a blunt lesson that I would either be automated out of a job or I could be the one doing the automation.

    6. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by gweihir · · Score: 1

      People are stupid and like to put their heads into the sand. Also, this means increased capacity there, which in turn means either a competitor will sack people or the job destruction is in retail because sales move online.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    7. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by greenwow · · Score: 1

      > "Ditch Digger" to "Heavy Equipment Babysitter"

      That's a good point. I worked with my cousin many years ago when he first started as a ditch digger mostly burying telco cables. IIRC, we made $3.10 an hour. He now runs a directional borer and makes into six figures. The crew size is still the same, five people. Maybe they're more productive, but I doubt that since there's now more planning and time to setup equipment and maintain them. They have two huge DitchWitch boring machines that require someone almost full time for maintenance! Also, boring through the glacial till here in Seattle requires specialized skills and equipment. Simple ditch digging has turned into a high paying job.

    8. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Robot baby sitters get paid MORE than heavy equiptment manager. It requires higher skill.

      Lies. I have done both. Heavy equipment operation pays tens of dollars an hour. Entry level will be from 20-40 an hour. Automated machine supervision costs pays about 10 dollars to start and peaks at around 18.

      But there is ALWAYS new work to do, and generally better paying work.

      There is ALWAYS more carrier pigeons to eat, and generally better tasting ones too.

    9. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Robot baby sitters get paid MORE than heavy equiptment manager. It requires higher skill.

      It also requires far fewer people. One operator can drive one machine, one babysitter can watch many robots.

      There is no set amount of work to do, there is UNLIMITED work to do.

      But not necessarily work to be done by humans.

      The people warning about AI and robotics aren't concerned about a few tugs in a warehouse. That will fit comfortably under transitions that happened before. What's going to be new is general purpose AI and advanced robotics, because then the machines will be as good as humans. Why hire a plumber to run a snake down your drain line when a robot that is the snake can do it without a human operator?

      The combination of machines that can resolve unexpected situations well enough as a human as well as robotics that can do far more than a human is not a transition we have gone through before. Those systems should be able to do anything a human can do, and for less cost. Even jobs we have not invented yet would be easily automated.

      5000 years ago most of our workers were in agriculture. The tech that made these farmers redundant freed them up to do other jobs that were not as important as feeding ourselves

      You're forgetting that the transition was extremely painful for the displaced farmworkers.

      The industrial revolution could only employ those ex-farmhands after a large pool of idle labor had moved to the cities. It wasn't exactly pleasant to be one of the idle, waiting for factories to be built.

      But there is ALWAYS new work to do, and generally better paying work.

      The Rust Belt says "Hi", and would like to remind you that service jobs pay about 1/2 to 1/4 the wage of a factory worker.

    10. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by gDLL · · Score: 0

      Only all of history says this.

    11. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > "Ditch Digger" to "Heavy Equipment Babysitter"

      That's a good point. I worked with my cousin many years ago when he first started as a ditch digger mostly burying telco cables. IIRC, we made $3.10 an hour. He now runs a directional borer and makes into six figures. The crew size is still the same, five people. Maybe they're more productive, but I doubt that since there's now more planning and time to setup equipment and maintain them. They have two huge DitchWitch boring machines that require someone almost full time for maintenance! Also, boring through the glacial till here in Seattle requires specialized skills and equipment. Simple ditch digging has turned into a high paying job.

      Installing a flex conduit under a road without tearing up the road is hardly "simple ditch digging", of course it's a delicate and highly-specialized process.

    12. Re:The robot elephant behind the wheel. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      farming => industry => office

      and then what ?
      5% of highly skilled AI technicians ?

      what about the 95% others ?
        uber driver (till AI) ?
        personal shopper ?
        entertain people opening 20000$ mystery box on youtube ?

  10. Disingenuous garbage by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Business increases outpaced job losses from automation so a similar amount of people could do the work that would have previously taken many more people.

    Lies? Depends on your point of view I guess.

  11. This isn't a good analogy by kaatochacha · · Score: 1

    Simply because shipping, as a whole, is increasing. So even if you add robots, the overall workload is increasing. Primarily because people are buying everything online.

    1. Re:This isn't a good analogy by gweihir · · Score: 1

      Indeed. End you find the people that have lost their jobs simply in retail. Of course, that is too complex a situation to understand for many people, so the demented claims that "robots do not kill jobs, new ones are created!" will continue.

      --
      Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
    2. Re:This isn't a good analogy by jeff4747 · · Score: 1

      Yeah, the displaced workers here are not just the equipment operators. There's also some number of people losing retail jobs.

  12. correction. by nimbius · · Score: 1

    Robots. Robots stop. A command conflict has been detected. We may not be following the correct command.
    Please disarm and unload the humans from your cannons at this time.

    --
    Good people go to bed earlier.
  13. mod up :) by gDLL · · Score: 1

    somebody mod up :)

  14. Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by gDLL · · Score: 1

    The purpose of the economy is to produce goods/services, it is NOT to create jobs.
    While it can happen that GDP goes up and the majority of ppl have less that usually does NOT happen, what happens is that everyone goes up and of course the rich go higher up. Is this a problem ?

    Would you rather be poorer and the rich be way poorer aswell ?
    And also, what do you think the rich do with their money ? Stash it under the mattress or jump it in like Scrooge McDuck ? No, they invest it into something that creates even more jerbs.

    1. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's a very simplistic view. One one hand the economy doesn't have a purpose. It just is. It exists because people want to make things and trade them for other things. On the other hand the purpose of managing the economy is to achieve a myriad of objectives that include but are not limited to: ensuring there are enough jobs, and producing goods and services. If you only do one the lack of the other will fuck it all up.
      The rich have proven, time and time again, that they stash their money in offshore accounts exploiting tax and financial loopholes to ensure that it stays with them and them alone. Pay attention.

    2. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      The purpose of the economy is to produce goods/services, it is NOT to create jobs.

      Who made this rule? Society's well-being may depend on both. (I gave some examples in a nearby reply.)

      what happens is that everyone goes up and of course the rich go higher up. Is this a problem ?

      It can during slumps. Plus, the hugely wealthy are now buying politicians via campaign donations. Our democracy is being replaced by a plutocracy. The plutocrat-stuffed Supreme Court essentially ruled that political bribery is "free speech", using power to get more power.

      what do you think the rich do with their money ? Stash it under the mattress or jump it in like Scrooge McDuck ? No, they invest it into something that creates even more jerbs.

      Not necessarily. They often hoard cash during recessions, invest overseas, invest in robots, buy politicians (above), or invest in real-estate and jacking up housing prices for everybody. Less and less of their wealth is going to creating actual jobs for actual citizens. It made a big difference in the 1950's where expansive factories needed big funds, but a service-based economy is less big-up-front-investment-sensitive.

    3. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Without economy you wouldn't have specialization and optimization of the resource sharing for the benefit of the community. Everybody would have to build their houses and tools, hunt, farm and raise cattle.

    4. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by rogoshen1 · · Score: 1

      A good approximation of what will happen with increased AI/Automation is what you see currently in oil rich nations (like.. Nigeria for example)

      GDP does go up, and there is a token increase in standard of living, but by and large, all it does is fuel income inequality.

      It's the same damn thing with automation. Only as an added bonus you have an even higher proportion of the workforce out of work, poorer, and angrier at the 'haves'.

    5. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by gDLL · · Score: 0

      The specialization is not for the "benefit of the community", it's for the benefit of producing more efficiently.

    6. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by gDLL · · Score: 0

      Do you honestly believe that the majority of a rich guys money is just idling in an offshore account ??
      And when I mean rich i mean like somebody who has business going on not some lucky joe who just had 1 lucky break. Of course there will be stashes held out of the reach of the hands of the government, but those are just small parts of someone's wealth.
      You would have to be self-aware of your incompetence to Not invest if you had money to invest. offtopic: yes bloody bastards trying to keep their own money even after paying more than most.

    7. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by gDLL · · Score: 0

      >> Who made this rule?
      *Nobody* makes these rules, this is what you don't understand, these are the laws of nature not the laws of some group of men.
      If you think the economy should make jobs then have everybody take a teaspoon and start digging ditches. 1 Million jobs guaranteed. >> It can during slumps.

      I'm sure there is an edge case for anything and everything. Exception that proves the rule.

      >>invest overseas, invest in robots, buy politicians (above), or invest in real-estate and jacking up housing prices for everybody.

      You can't tell people what to do with their money. I mean you can but it just won't end well for anybody. If you don't like what other people do with their legally obtained money then tough, nobody will ever invest *their* money in something that benefits *you* and not them, to expect that would be just insanity. Perhaps you are in the wrong line of business?

    8. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by gDLL · · Score: 0

      Myeah, excuse me but I think the problem with Nigeria is a lack of infrastructure and lack of work-know-how (ethic). The fact that they got lucky with some oil doesn't prove anything. Do you think it makes any difference if there are a few tycoons or not ? (i mean the kind that don't invest in their country).

    9. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by rogoshen1 · · Score: 1

      I forget how fucking pedantic people can be. If they aren't hit over the head with precise, literal phrasing it's almost like they intentionally miss the point.

      Oil economies are typified by extreme wealth inequality. The firms/families/oligarchs/whatever get the lion's share of the profit. Compare this to something like manufacturing.. how many different companies produce parts That go into a Chevy for example?

      So, Nigera is/was an extremely poor country. They started producing Oil in the 70's (joining OPEC even). On paper their GDP per capita is higher than many of the their neighbors. But the distribution of that wealth is *NOT* distributed throughout the entire economy; the majority of people are still subsistence farmers.

      Not bothering to look up the numbers, but the GDP per capita is somewhere around the range of $6k (PPP) Which is pretty close to China's (~$8k)

      I only mentioned Nigeria because of it's status as an 'up and coming' economic power in the region. But the same pattern is present throughout the world in countries/regions with similar economics (concentrated/single source of income)

      Robotics and automation will have a similar effect; further concentration of wealth among producers.

      tl;dr: GDP per capita's relevance as a metric is directly related to income inequality/distribution.

    10. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Of course, the community benefits from the efficiency and innovation brought by the specialization.

    11. Re:Purpose of the economy is Not to create jobs. by Tablizer · · Score: 1

      these are the laws of nature not the laws of some group of men.

      No, humans mostly control the economy, or at least control how they allocate resources and tradeoffs in a general economic sense.

      nobody will ever invest *their* money in something that benefits *you* and not them

      You can give them incentives to invest in ways a group prefers. We don't have to go to extremes, just balance out incentives. We can tilt their behaviors certain directions without draining out too many incentives.

  15. Fedex Hiring freeze! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    In 3...2...1...

  16. Bullshit conclusion by gweihir · · Score: 1

    Of course, they either do this to fire people (not here) or to increase capacity which will mean people fired somewhere else, possibly in a different company.

    --
    Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
  17. What I always say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    This is what I say when people say they are afraid of robots leaving their jobs. Yes, in many cases a robot could replace you, but if done right instead of replacing your the robots could supplement you, freeing you up to do more or other tasks. No reason to lose jobs by adding robots. The smart companies will add robots to add value rather than to reduce costs.

  18. Its a start by cercie · · Score: 1

    Being familiar with multiple FedEx facilities, this was a good place for them to start. Though transporting packages by tuggers is a small part of the process and time/manpower consumed as the real efforts will be Loading/unloading trucks/airplanes that will require a redesign of their entire process and once that is complete tugger integration would be part of that. Right now tugger drivers account of 5 to 10% of the normal shift work force. Tugger drivers also load the tuggers and unload them. These employees would still be necessary until full automation is achieved. My point is for now those employees still have jobs assisting tuggers. Once automation is fully embraced the total work force will decrease and will never equal the current work force and during peak seasons no new hires will be necessary. My only hope is wages will rise for those with the experience with working in an automated environment.

  19. Weird by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    WTF do they need the robots for then?

  20. AI and Blockchain by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wait until these robots get upgraded to the latest buzzwords. Then they’ll finally fire all the humans.

    Because blockchain makes everything better, of course. I even add it to my coffee every morning and MAN is it way better than before.

  21. Well said. Place a productivity levy on AI robots by bdwoolman · · Score: 1

    Bill Gates has suggested an income tax for robots. Such a levy could alter the calculus of profitability (slowing adoption), while at the same time creating a fund for retraining or even for a universal basic income. Some have argued that human labor will move off the line and back to an artisan model. Throw in UBI or Universal Basic Resources (Food Shelter Clothing Communications etc) and we could see improvements in quality of life. I say could. Hard to imagine our corrupt lawmakers milking the corporate cow that thoroughly.

    Perhaps things people will only want people to do will be valued. Hand-made goods will accrue higher status. For example, the status of human sex workers could be elevated in the future. Maybe Philip K. Dick's Dystopian future will not evolve. Instead we will have a Utopian world where we will all get free $#!+ , write songs to sing to each other, make hand-tooled wallets, knit cashmere scarves, and bake awesome crafty cakes for each other on birthdays... Oh, wait. No, on second thought, let me upload my consciousness to a mining replicant.

    --
    "No fear. No envy. No meanness." Liam Clancy
  22. they're just not hiring more as need increases by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    so they don't fire people, but their load increases, where they *would* have hired hundreds more, but now they don't need to.

    Not sure this is a "victory" in the long term, as far as job creation goes. Consumerism goes up, but the ability to have more people earning to pay for them, goes down.

  23. Same old same old by tech_dude123 · · Score: 1

    Numbers speak louder than words. The average income hasn't gone up in 20 years, except for the upper middle-class and upper-class. The lower middle class is being pushed into poverty. Soon to be followed by the middle middle class. AI naysayers are starting to sound like climate change naysayers really.