Ask Slashdot: How Did Real-Time Ray Tracing Become Possible With Today's Technology?
dryriver writes: There are occasions where multiple big tech manufacturers all announce the exact same innovation at the same time -- e.g. 4K UHD TVs. Everybody in broadcasting and audiovisual content creation knew that 4K/8K UHD and high dynamic range (HDR) were coming years in advance, and that all the big TV and screen manufacturers were preparing 4K UHD HDR product lines because FHD was beginning to bore consumers. It came as no surprise when everybody had a 4K UHD product announcement and demo ready at the same time. Something very unusual happened this year at GDC 2018 however. Multiple graphics and GPU companies, like Microsoft, Nvidia, and AMD, as well as other game developers and game engine makers, all announced that real-time ray tracing is coming to their mass-market products, and by extension, to computer games, VR content and other realtime 3D applications.
Why is this odd? Because for many years any mention of 30+ FPS real-time ray tracing was thought to be utterly impossible with today's hardware technology. It was deemed far too computationally intensive for today's GPU technology and far too expensive for anything mass market. Gamers weren't screaming for the technology. Technologists didn't think it was doable at this point in time. Raster 3D graphics -- what we have in DirectX, OpenGL and game consoles today -- was very, very profitable and could easily have evolved further the way it has for another 7 to 8 years. And suddenly there it was: everybody announced at the same time that real-time ray tracing is not only technically possible, but also coming to your home gaming PC much sooner than anybody thought. Working tech demos were shown. What happened? How did real-time ray tracing, which only a few 3D graphics nerds and researchers in the field talked about until recently, suddenly become so technically possible, economically feasible, and so guaranteed-to-be-profitable that everybody announced this year that they are doing it?
Why is this odd? Because for many years any mention of 30+ FPS real-time ray tracing was thought to be utterly impossible with today's hardware technology. It was deemed far too computationally intensive for today's GPU technology and far too expensive for anything mass market. Gamers weren't screaming for the technology. Technologists didn't think it was doable at this point in time. Raster 3D graphics -- what we have in DirectX, OpenGL and game consoles today -- was very, very profitable and could easily have evolved further the way it has for another 7 to 8 years. And suddenly there it was: everybody announced at the same time that real-time ray tracing is not only technically possible, but also coming to your home gaming PC much sooner than anybody thought. Working tech demos were shown. What happened? How did real-time ray tracing, which only a few 3D graphics nerds and researchers in the field talked about until recently, suddenly become so technically possible, economically feasible, and so guaranteed-to-be-profitable that everybody announced this year that they are doing it?
Be careful with your terminology.
Real Time Ray Tracing with one primary ray and one shadow ray for each pixel, was viable last year as well (at 1080p.)
But this will not render indirect light, thus no Global Illumination.
You may be referring to Real Time Path Tracing, where you need to shoot a lot of rays for every pixel.
This is currently not possible, and also not possible in this year's GDC demos: I think most of the demos were hybrids (rasterizing+tracing), and definitely not full Global Illumination.
http://www.stolk.org/tlctc
Real time ray tracing was a topic since I was in college 20 years ago. A lot of PhD students have done their research. Algorithms optimized. Hardware advancing. Futurists at major corporations (fancy name for people responsible for monitoring tech) saw hardware evolving.
So Microsoft probably saw that it was going to be viable in 5 years (or whenever) in 2013. They probably starting developing an API in conjunction with major hardware manufacturers. So they all worked together to bring ray tracing to the masses eventually.
Now all this work is paying off and consumers get the end product.
This is no different than major corporations using augmented reality to validate construction designs. Ya, they are doing that atleast in labs. Take the 3D model as built and validate that it is as built. Or quickly look at something in the real world and figure out where the 3D model data is and figure out in a second what vendor supplied the broken part. Ya, this stuff is happening!
It is using rasterization for the scene, and then hybrid ray tracing for the reflective, shadow, and opacity components were it applies. This is not true ray-tracing, but rather another rendering "trick" to optimize for speed. Most of our rendering for games today is approximations, because it is good enough. Same thing here.
Just to be clear, it's not "reflections" (as in mirrors) that's the problem necessarily, it's the fuzzy effects: diffuse, glossy, translucent, aerosols, etc.
It may never be doable because of Blinn's Law.
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