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One-Degree Rise In Temperature Causes Ripple Effect In World's Largest High Arctic Lake (folio.ca)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from FOLIO Magazine: A 1 C increase in temperature has set off a chain of events disrupting the entire ecology of the world's largest High Arctic lake. "The amount of glacial meltwater going into the lake has dramatically increased," said Martin Sharp, a University of Alberta glaciologist who was part of a team of scientists that documented the rapid changes in Lake Hazen on Ellesmere Island over a series of warm summers in the last decade. "Because it's glacial meltwater, the amount of fine sediment going into the lake has dramatically increased as well. That in turn affects how much light can get into the water column, which may affect biological productivity in the lake." The changes resulted in algal blooms and detrimental changes to the Arctic char fish population, and point to a near certain future of summer ice-free conditions. The findings document an unprecedented shift from the previous three centuries, challenging scientists' expectations of how such a large system could respond so rapidly to a one-degree rise. The study has been published in the journal Nature Communications.
Even without humans there would easily have been that 1C upward swing at some point. While a bit tragic that kind of thing is going on all over the face of the earth, all the time, where animals and people find some nice place to live, but in geologic terms there are NO nice places to live. Eventually Mother Nature *will* kick you out.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
1. What happened to the warming that should have occurred (and was predicted to occur) due to increases in greenhouse gases?
2. Where is the observational data to evidence your theory?
The output of the Sun has been observed for quite a while, including using satellites over the last 50 years and there hasn't been a big change in the output that would have the affects we're seeing. If you have evidence of a large change in the output, please post a link.
It's true that the models of solar induced warming aren't the best, with some saying a degree every 10 million years and some say less, but the basics are pretty simple. The Sun gets hotter as it converts hydrogen into helium and since a helium, atom is 4 times heavier then a hydrogen atom, the Sun gets denser and fusion speeds up and over billions of years there's quite an affect. Not over centuries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism
Probably should not believe and predictive models of climate that doesn't also have an accurate, predictive model of the Sun. Coupled systems cannot be magically decoupled.
You do know that we measure the sun's output, right? And have been doing so for many decades?
We know that the observed warming is not due to changes in the solar output because we measure the solar output.
Coupled systems cannot be magically decoupled.
Which is why climate models account for many things.
http://www.geoffreylandis.com
We're doomed.
Malthusian Fallacy.
Predictions of doom from overpopulation have been around for a long time. They've been around for a long time because they keep being proven wrong. Mankind keeps inventing, discovering, and engineering it's way past and beyond old sustainability limits.
And we have barely even begun to tap the resources of space and the possibilities relatively cheap lift vehicles will offer.
Mankind is on the cusp of the richest and most universally prosperous age he has ever known as we tap into the nearly infinite resources waiting to be gathered and used.
We just need to hold on long enough and not turn into some dystopian authoritarian nightmare before it happens.
Strat
Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
Satellite and balloon measurements show the models are way out-of-line with actual measurements. Most likely the feedback of 3.2 deg K for a doubling of CO2 is wrong. The baseline of CO2 is 1.2 deg K; the 3.2 deg K comes from estimated feedback systems, and that is what is pumped into models (well, values from 2.1deg K to 4.4 deg K). However, those secondary sensitivity values are too high, and probably should be replaced with a total CO2-driven sensitivity of around 1.4-1.5 deg K per doubling, less than half what is used in the models. If you do that, you'll find the models suddenly agree with measured data. So the physics isn't wrong, but the estimated feedback coefficients for the physics is.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
Why would you compare the 2.5TW change in solar output with our energy production, which is a totally unrelated variable ?
You should compare it to the average solar output, which is about 1360 W/m^2. So we're talking about 0.7% variation.
Now compare your solar graph to the global temperature graph, and you'll see they don't match. Especially after about 1980, when solar output starts to go back down, and global temperature goes through fastest rise.
Energy into the system. If we go with CO2 as a greenhouse gas, then energy into the system would be the driver of heat in the system; CO2 may keep it trapped longer, but it's the energy in that causes the build-up of heat. The sun's variability alone equals 13% of the total energy generation/power of the current world (and much more versus even just 10 years ago). If we have CO2 output - and no energy output - would we heat as much? In other words - if your blanket is thicker but you have no additional heat in your bed, does your bed get warmer, or just get colder, slower?
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!
The energy in the system comes from the Sun. There's about 170000 TW of solar energy hitting the atmosphere. The 20 TW of human-generated energy is nothing compared to that.
These climate scientists show that 97% of all IPCC models vastly overestimate actual measured temperatures as recorded from balloons and satellite.
Browsing at +1 - no ACs, I ignore their posts. So refreshing!