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Trade War Or Not, China is Closing the Gap on US in Technology IP Race (reuters.com)
China's rising investment in research and expansion of its higher education system mean that it is fast closing the gap with the United States in intellectual property and the struggle to be the No.1 global technology power, according to patent experts. From a report: While U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of punitive tariffs on high-tech U.S. exports could slow Beijing's momentum, it won't turn back the tide, they say. Washington's allegation that the Chinese have engaged in intellectual property theft over many years -- which is denied by Beijing -- is a central reason for the worsening trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Forecasts for how long it will take for Beijing to close the technological gap vary -- though several patent specialists say it could happen in the next decade.
And China is already leapfrogging ahead in a couple of areas. "With the number of scientists China is training every year it will eventually catch up, regardless of what the U.S. does," said David Shen, head of IP for China at global law firm Allen & Overy. Indeed, IP lawyers now see President Xi Jinping's pledge earlier this week to protect foreign IP rights as projecting confidence in China's position as a leading innovator in sectors such as telecommunications and online payments, as well as its ability to catch up in other areas.
And China is already leapfrogging ahead in a couple of areas. "With the number of scientists China is training every year it will eventually catch up, regardless of what the U.S. does," said David Shen, head of IP for China at global law firm Allen & Overy. Indeed, IP lawyers now see President Xi Jinping's pledge earlier this week to protect foreign IP rights as projecting confidence in China's position as a leading innovator in sectors such as telecommunications and online payments, as well as its ability to catch up in other areas.
China has TONS of internal problems. They have 300 million "modern" people, and one freaking billion poor peasants that they're responsible for. They have a Communist system that we know for a fact fails. The only reason they held it together after Tiananmen is that the USA stupidly admitted them to the WTO, thinking that for some reason democracy would break out in China. China has zero tradition of democracy and has always been ruled by emperors or chaos. Unsurprisingly, it didn't happen.
The Communist Party is scared shitless of the people. If the people knew what had been done in their name, they would rise up overnight and kick the bastards out. There are tons of restrictions on public gatherings, surveillance everywhere, and no free speech. These are enormous problems that can never be solved, not without destroying the Party's rule.
Then there is China's horrible strategic situation. They are hemmed in by three rings of American defenses in the Pacific, hostile neighbors, and the vastness of Asia. Who cares if they dominate the South China Sea, it's their backyard, it's like complaining that the Americans dominate the Gulf of Mexico. The US Navy sits on the Strait of Malacca, China's jugular vein. Cut that and China is cut off from its sources of energy in the Middle East. One Belt One Road I hear someone say? It's 15 times more expensive to transport goods by land than by sea. They're doing OBOR because they literally have no other choice. Africa I hear someone else say? Again, no other choice. All the good spots in the world were taken long ago by the West. We're not in Africa because China forced us out, we're not in Africa because it's hopeless, you can't help them, their elites steal everything that's not nailed down and return with crowbars to steal the rest.
China is utterly dependent on foreign trade and American tariffs can really throw a monkey wrench into their plans. Besides, the tariffs are less about slowing China's rise than assisting America's re-rise. China would trade their honor students and their (poorly) speaking English population in a heartbeat for any other country's situation.
Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
Not just China, other countries either have Great Firewalls in place, or will. The Aussies have one, Iran does, and I'm sure there are many others. By keeping the attackers limited to what is physically in the country, this cuts down greatly on what attacks can be done, and what succeed.
The US's worst problem is that C-levels of corporations can greatly profit when their companies are hacked. This will ensure that breaches, and egregious ones, will continue for a long time to come. The top company brass finds about the hack, short their stock, makes an announcement that their customers are hosed, and laugh all the way to the bank.
How many scientists and engineers do you know who are unemployed, struggling to make a decent living, or doing something unrelated to their academic training? How many more do you know who are languishing at jobs they hate and that underutilize their talent? How many do you know who are wasting their time and talent writing cell phone apps or something equally menial?
The U.S. technology sector is trading innovation for short term profits and temporary capital gains. Silicon Valley is more about venture capital than science these days. Meanwhile, China is recognizing the importance of science and technology more than ever. It's no wonder China is closing in on us fast.
With China's massive population advantage and our apathy, we'll be a distant number two in no time. Our problems are only going to get worse as people stop pursuing science and engineering careers because the jobs suck.
The US represents about 4% of the global population. China is 19%. If China ever got its political head out of the wrong end of its anatomy it would crush us. Even if they only manage not to be stubbornly stupid they'll be tough to keep up with in the 21st Century.
So how can the US maintain it's scientific and technological preeminence? The same way it got it in the first place: immigration. US 20th century STEM preeminence is built mostly by people who came here looking for religious and political toleration, especially around WW2.
No immigrants means no Manhattan Project or US space program. No Admiral Hyman Rickover, so no US nuclear navy. No Sikorsky helicopters. No US Steel, Bell Telephone, or Westinghouse Electric. Just excluding John von Neumann alone would leave a huge hole in US scientific prestige. And today, if you waved a magic wand and eliminated all immigrants in the US, more than half of the scientists and engineers working in the US would disappear.
Immigration doesn't bring the worst people here, it brings the best, or at least the most enterprising. Nearly half of US fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or children of immigrants.
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