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Trade War Or Not, China is Closing the Gap on US in Technology IP Race (reuters.com)
China's rising investment in research and expansion of its higher education system mean that it is fast closing the gap with the United States in intellectual property and the struggle to be the No.1 global technology power, according to patent experts. From a report: While U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of punitive tariffs on high-tech U.S. exports could slow Beijing's momentum, it won't turn back the tide, they say. Washington's allegation that the Chinese have engaged in intellectual property theft over many years -- which is denied by Beijing -- is a central reason for the worsening trade conflict between the U.S. and China. Forecasts for how long it will take for Beijing to close the technological gap vary -- though several patent specialists say it could happen in the next decade.
And China is already leapfrogging ahead in a couple of areas. "With the number of scientists China is training every year it will eventually catch up, regardless of what the U.S. does," said David Shen, head of IP for China at global law firm Allen & Overy. Indeed, IP lawyers now see President Xi Jinping's pledge earlier this week to protect foreign IP rights as projecting confidence in China's position as a leading innovator in sectors such as telecommunications and online payments, as well as its ability to catch up in other areas.
And China is already leapfrogging ahead in a couple of areas. "With the number of scientists China is training every year it will eventually catch up, regardless of what the U.S. does," said David Shen, head of IP for China at global law firm Allen & Overy. Indeed, IP lawyers now see President Xi Jinping's pledge earlier this week to protect foreign IP rights as projecting confidence in China's position as a leading innovator in sectors such as telecommunications and online payments, as well as its ability to catch up in other areas.
Does this mean all the other countries of the world can start stealing their intellectual property soon? It's been a bit one sided so far...
This is being measured entirely by patents. This is the wrong metric to use, although I'm sure the usual suspects are creaming in their pants to see another "America is going to get it" article. They hate our guts and dream of the day we'll be humiliated. What can I say, we deserve it, we're horrible people. Patents in the USA, particularly regarding software, are total bullshit. They shouldn't even be granted, and when they are, they're either for totally obscure ideas or for ideas obvious to anyone in the art. Patents in China are bullshit too, they don't have anything to do with actual progress. Hey, who cares though, journalists aren't experts and they love to distill complex topics down to a single number that they mistakenly regard like a sports score.
Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
China has TONS of internal problems. They have 300 million "modern" people, and one freaking billion poor peasants that they're responsible for. They have a Communist system that we know for a fact fails. The only reason they held it together after Tiananmen is that the USA stupidly admitted them to the WTO, thinking that for some reason democracy would break out in China. China has zero tradition of democracy and has always been ruled by emperors or chaos. Unsurprisingly, it didn't happen.
The Communist Party is scared shitless of the people. If the people knew what had been done in their name, they would rise up overnight and kick the bastards out. There are tons of restrictions on public gatherings, surveillance everywhere, and no free speech. These are enormous problems that can never be solved, not without destroying the Party's rule.
Then there is China's horrible strategic situation. They are hemmed in by three rings of American defenses in the Pacific, hostile neighbors, and the vastness of Asia. Who cares if they dominate the South China Sea, it's their backyard, it's like complaining that the Americans dominate the Gulf of Mexico. The US Navy sits on the Strait of Malacca, China's jugular vein. Cut that and China is cut off from its sources of energy in the Middle East. One Belt One Road I hear someone say? It's 15 times more expensive to transport goods by land than by sea. They're doing OBOR because they literally have no other choice. Africa I hear someone else say? Again, no other choice. All the good spots in the world were taken long ago by the West. We're not in Africa because China forced us out, we're not in Africa because it's hopeless, you can't help them, their elites steal everything that's not nailed down and return with crowbars to steal the rest.
China is utterly dependent on foreign trade and American tariffs can really throw a monkey wrench into their plans. Besides, the tariffs are less about slowing China's rise than assisting America's re-rise. China would trade their honor students and their (poorly) speaking English population in a heartbeat for any other country's situation.
Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
The US represents about 4% of the global population. China is 19%. If China ever got its political head out of the wrong end of its anatomy it would crush us. Even if they only manage not to be stubbornly stupid they'll be tough to keep up with in the 21st Century.
So how can the US maintain it's scientific and technological preeminence? The same way it got it in the first place: immigration. US 20th century STEM preeminence is built mostly by people who came here looking for religious and political toleration, especially around WW2.
No immigrants means no Manhattan Project or US space program. No Admiral Hyman Rickover, so no US nuclear navy. No Sikorsky helicopters. No US Steel, Bell Telephone, or Westinghouse Electric. Just excluding John von Neumann alone would leave a huge hole in US scientific prestige. And today, if you waved a magic wand and eliminated all immigrants in the US, more than half of the scientists and engineers working in the US would disappear.
Immigration doesn't bring the worst people here, it brings the best, or at least the most enterprising. Nearly half of US fortune 500 companies were founded by immigrants or children of immigrants.
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