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The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Innovation (nber.org)
Abstract of a paper [PDF] which was originally published last month: Artificial intelligence may greatly increase the efficiency of the existing economy. But it may have an even larger impact by serving as a new general-purpose "method of invention" that can reshape the nature of the innovation process and the organization of R&D. We distinguish between automation-oriented applications such as robotics and the potential for recent developments in "deep learning" to serve as a general-purpose method of invention, finding strong evidence of a "shift" in the importance of application-oriented learning research since 2009.
We suggest that this is likely to lead to a significant substitution away from more routinized labor-intensive research towards research that takes advantage of the interplay between passively generated large datasets and enhanced prediction algorithms. At the same time, the potential commercial rewards from mastering this mode of research are likely to usher in a period of racing, driven by powerful incentives for individual companies to acquire and control critical large datasets and application-specific algorithms. We suggest that policies which encourage transparency and sharing of core datasets across both public and private actors may be critical tools for stimulating research productivity and innovation-oriented competition going forward.
We suggest that this is likely to lead to a significant substitution away from more routinized labor-intensive research towards research that takes advantage of the interplay between passively generated large datasets and enhanced prediction algorithms. At the same time, the potential commercial rewards from mastering this mode of research are likely to usher in a period of racing, driven by powerful incentives for individual companies to acquire and control critical large datasets and application-specific algorithms. We suggest that policies which encourage transparency and sharing of core datasets across both public and private actors may be critical tools for stimulating research productivity and innovation-oriented competition going forward.
No matter what you think, we won't end up with people working less and living better. We will end up with 1% exclusively benefiting from all the increases in productivity and 99% getting hit by even higher unemployment because even conspicuous consumption by 1% has a limit.
The latest and greatest gizmo you bought in the morning will be obsolete by evening.
I'd like to live to see that era, it seems like it will be very interesting — in a good way.
In Soviet Washington the swamp drains you.
Just because you can crunch #s doesn't mean you can invent the new Zippo lighter, Polaroid camera, or iPhone that doesn't already exist.
A lot of the innovation that occurs is what results from "fixing" what already exists but is not efficient enough in some way. It is innovation that no one except the designers themselves appreciate, because it is hidden innovation inside of products.
AI is going to be so amazing! It is really going to transform our lives. I'm sure it is right around the corner.
is them making a discovery but not telling us.
Won't for a while ... hopefully!
Both of the "we suggest" paragraphs are coma inducing, so you get past that and what remains? This:
Strunkian synopsis: Imminent ruthless-genius land-grab race to the bottom.
Then the rest of the words could have been devoted to explaining precisely what they mean by "application-specific algorithms", because specificity roams wide.
Are we talking 120 or twelve thousand?
> "the capability of a machine to imitate intelligent human behavior"
by that definition, a calculator is AI.
I slide into the room like kramer, only to discover you standing there naked with a bulging erection, glistening with lube. I launch myself like a projectile mouth first and 'dock' with your cock like a jet performing an in flight refueling maneuver. you transport what feels like gallons of your hot love fuel directly into my stomach, and i come off your mayonaise canon with an audible pop..a slight bit of extra cum splashes onto my face...my mouth hangs open like that of a tired dog, jizz drooling out of my mouth like ive been lobotomized
use what ever definition you want, "Imitation" is not intelligence. Intelligence is adaptability, intelligence is dynamic and self evolving, intelligence is the ability to apply one data to a new and unrelated problem (aka, the EUREKA moment). What we have today is "task programming"- nothing more. The "task" of converting spoken words to text with zero comprehension or experience of the information that is attempting to be conveyed. Siri for example is saturated with errors, auto corrects are hilarious, suggestions are nonsensical, and you you want to call that AL? bah. Even the best AI "autonomous" vehicles drive into fixed objects. Stop being amused by parlor tricks and see them for what they are - task programming.
go into biotech to replace the jobs NAFTA sent to Mexico. At least once a week I read how the sort of rank and file jobs that were supposed to have been created (the biotech equivalent to a code monkey) were replaced by some form of automation.
Oh, and the point of being in the 1% isn't conspicuous consumption, it's power. The good thing about being rich is the poor have to do what you say or they starve to death.
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those are products that used innovations (metallurgy & oil refinery, chemistry and plastics, microcomputers, advanced radios and LCD screens).
Most of that tech was done by the government under the auspices of "military" spending.
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It won't be any better than successive approximation, albeit fast, so might appear to be intelligent.
And yes it will make capitalism more efficient.
But that will regress our society
Go well
It's a scale, not a binary option.
Ezekiel 23:20
We suggest that this is likely to lead to a significant substitution away from more routinized labor-intensive research towards research that takes advantage of the interplay between passively generated large datasets and enhanced prediction algorithms.
It is cruel to have this (AI generated?) stuff just after another story telling "Papers today are longer than ever and full of jargon and symbols"
After reading your comment, I figured that I should probably read TFS.... It didn't seem to help.
"When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro" -- HST
Any AI can Google it, but Calculators can not.
I imagine a scenario where distributed software exists, kind of a cross between seti@home and cryptocurrency mining, that performs processing for a deep-learning algorithm. The amount of total memory and processing power devoted to this could be as large as the larger cryptocurrencies, let's say. Now let's say that this algorithm is dedicated to creating new inventions. It's been said that a machine that's smarter than humans is the last thing we'd ever need invent, and this would be like that. Now, the algorithm and its results wouldn't be owned by any one entity, but it'd patent its ideas through a corporation it effectively controls (people would be needed legally, but the corporate charter could say that they have to do what the algorithm says). The fees for licensing its patents would then be distributed proportionately to those performing its processing.
If people dogpiled A.I. to the degree they're jumping on cryptocurrency, we'd have the singularity already :)
Corruption is convincing someone that the selfless ideal is the same as their selfish ideal.
"We suggest that this is likely to lead to a significant substitution away from more routinized labor-intensive research towards research that takes advantage of the interplay between passively generated large datasets and enhanced prediction algorithms"
What is a passively generated data set? You can have data without creating data. Passive data is an oxymoron.
What does enhanced prediction algorithms mean? Enhanced how? the thing reads like it came from a journal paper generator.
putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
OK, but that definition is completely useless because it's basically a synonym for "software". It defines a category so broad that it loses any real meaning.
Only crack the nuts that crack. You don't put the ones that don't crack in the sack.
We don't have AI. All we have is automation. Stop please calling it AI.
Wikipedia says "In computer science AI research is defined as the study of "intelligent agents": any device that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of successfully achieving its goals.[1] Colloquially, the term "artificial intelligence" is applied when a machine mimics "cognitive" functions that humans associate with other human minds, such as "learning" and "problem solving". Are you sure we don't have AI?
Other important points to consider:
1) For non-techies, the barrier for AI tends to be lower than that for the average Slashdot reader.
2) Continued use of a term prior to the full realization of whatever thing the term refers to, tends to help create that thing.
3) Self-awareness is not a prerequisite for the kind of AI referenced in TFS, and we really need a new set of names to differentiate between sentient and non-sentient AI.
'The Economy' is a giant Ponzi scheme whose most pitiable suckers are the youngest among us and the yet-unborn.
I think AI can cripple innovation if built properly. Take the example of the formulaic news articles and movies we've been seeing today generated based on user data (trends, mental profiles, relationships between the profiles etc.). People who produce them have a high level of assurity that the next piece of media will be recieved positively. Then something else comes along and it completely makes the previous thing obsolete, a disruptor. Such a system could adapt quickly to produce more content based on the disruption further discouraging innovation. Just a thought, not a machine learning expert.