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Selling Full Autonomy Before It's Ready Could Backfire For Tesla (arstechnica.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Ars Technica: Tesla has an Autopilot problem, and it goes far beyond the fallout from last month's deadly crash in Mountain View, California. Tesla charges $5,000 for Autopilot's lane-keeping and advanced cruise control features. On top of that, customers can pay $3,000 for what Tesla describes as "Full Self-Driving Capability." "All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go," Tesla's ordering page says. "Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed." None of these "full self-driving" capabilities are available yet. "Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction," the page says. "It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval."
But the big reason full self-driving isn't available yet has nothing to do with "regulatory approval." The problem is that Tesla hasn't created the technology yet. Indeed, the company could be years away from completing work on it, and some experts doubt it will ever be possible to achieve full self-driving capabilities with the hardware installed on today's Tesla vehicles. "It's a vastly more difficult problem than most people realize," said Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Navigant Research and a former auto industry engineer. Tesla has a history of pre-selling products based on optimistic delivery schedules. This approach has served the company pretty well in the past, as customers ultimately loved their cars once they ultimately showed up. But that strategy could backfire hugely when it comes to Autopilot.
But the big reason full self-driving isn't available yet has nothing to do with "regulatory approval." The problem is that Tesla hasn't created the technology yet. Indeed, the company could be years away from completing work on it, and some experts doubt it will ever be possible to achieve full self-driving capabilities with the hardware installed on today's Tesla vehicles. "It's a vastly more difficult problem than most people realize," said Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Navigant Research and a former auto industry engineer. Tesla has a history of pre-selling products based on optimistic delivery schedules. This approach has served the company pretty well in the past, as customers ultimately loved their cars once they ultimately showed up. But that strategy could backfire hugely when it comes to Autopilot.
I also thought about how hard it would be to make a real autonomous vehicle that worked under all conditions
Getting to 90% has been done. Good weather, good visibility, few unexpected hazards
Getting to 95% will be harder, and it gets exponentially harder as you asymptotically approach 100%
The billion dollar question is...How close is close enough?
No matter how good it gets, someone will always sue, claiming it isn't perfect
The law needs to be adjusted to accept the reality that nothing is perfect
I own a Tesla and the operating costs are substantially less than any fossil fueled car I have ever owned. Charging is much less expensive than gas and the only real maintenance is replacing the tires. I normally don't charge the battery past 200 miles unless I'm going on a long trip and my typical home charging time is less than an hour. The customer service absolutely blows away any other car brand I've owned and the car just keeps getting better with new software updates. I have never heard of any of the major auto manufacturers doing updates at all for anything that wasn't a serious problem and certainly not free over-the-air updates. I paid around $70K after the tax rebate which is not even close to the high-end for a luxury car.
I happen to have a Tesla S and I do love the car.
They are a joy to drive. The acceleration is second to none. The handling is great, almost on par with the ( now deprecated ) hydraulic steering on BMWs's I used to drive. The cabin technology is great. I also really like the fact that the car gets free updates that actually improve it on a continuous basis!
I also feel extra pleased with my purchase because I get free EV charging in my office building, premium EV parking at most malls, and I just learned that Tesla will install a supercharger ( which I also get for free ) at my local mall. Heck I even get premium parking and free power at Ikea! ( I would get these with a lower cost EV but their really just a 'feel good' bonus. )
The autpilot is def misnamed. It's nowhere near autonomous. Just now it's more like a junior co-pilot. Would I like it to be better? Yes I sure would. But I will say that once you know it's limitations it is very helpful and - contrary to popular opinion - it does an excellent job in all weather conditions except heavy snow which covers the road. I'd say 70% of my daily commute is now handled by autopilot.
The law needs to be adjusted to accept the reality that nothing is perfect
The problem (traffic, roads, laws, standards) will get redefined to fit the new AI solution, same as when we transitioned from horses to cars. When you get enough autocars out there, the roads will begin to get engineered to mitigate the weaknesses of AIs, bit by bit.. This is exactly what happened to cars: we created and adapted roads, laws, enforcement, etc to match car's needs and continue to do so. The Model T was high off the ground to deal with the rutted, muddy dirt roads (or no roads at all) they were likely to encounter. Today, we have aerodynamic skirts a few inches off the pavement for efficiency. Pavement--smooth pavement--is simply assumed.
That's what always happens with any disruptive technology: we end up adapting everything, including ourselves, to meet it part way.
An example of things that will probably be changed soon than later: road construction zones will be required to implement certain protocols (signage, markers, notifying some central database, whatever) to make them easier for AIs to traverse. Failure to do so will entail liability for accidents.
My guess is that true full autonomy will first roll out in a big way on certain long-haul trucking routes. Many freeways are a fairly clean, well-defined situation and the prize for trucking companies is too big to ignore. Those parts of the chosen freeways that are problematic for the AIs will be upgraded, either due to lobbying by large trucking firms, and/or those firms'll kick in some of their own $ to make those changes happen sooner.