A Study Finds Half of Jobs Are Vulnerable To Automation (economist.com)

The Economist reports of a new working paper by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) that assesses the automatability of each task within a given job, based on a survey of skills in 2015. "Overall, the study finds that 14% of jobs across 32 countries are highly vulnerable, defined as having at least a 70% chance of automation," reports Economist. "A further 32% were slightly less imperiled, with a probability between 50% and 70%. At current employment rates, that puts 210 million jobs at risk across the 32 countries in the study." From the report: The pain will not be shared evenly. The study finds large variation across countries: jobs in Slovakia are twice as vulnerable as those in Norway. In general, workers in rich countries appear less at risk than those in middle-income ones. But wide gaps exist even between countries of similar wealth. Differences in organizational structure and industry mix both play a role, but the former matters more. In South Korea, for example, 30% of jobs are in manufacturing, compared with 22% in Canada. Nonetheless, on average, Korean jobs are harder to automate than Canadian ones are. This may be because Korean employers have found better ways to combine, in the same job, and without reducing productivity, both routine tasks and social and creative ones, which computers or robots cannot do. A gloomier explanation would be "survivor bias": the jobs that remain in Korea appear harder to automate only because Korean firms have already handed most of the easily automatable jobs to machines.

Comments

This is about the 8th or 9th of these

[rsilvergun]

maybe 10th. I've lost count. But at least half, maybe more, of all jobs are going to be automated in the near future. Hell, even even half of that is true it's 25%. Now would be a real good time for us to figure out what we're going to do when a quarter of the population is unemployable. In America if you don't work, you don't eat. And when people don't eat, they get violent and prone to suggestion. And we've got a _lot_ of bombs....

All I'm saying is, If the rest of the world doesn't want that 25% to start looking for some kinda strong man to get them jobs of the military persuasion maybe they should start doing something. Maybe stop destabilizing our politics (Russia, I'm looking at you) and stop encouraging right wing, authoritarians from getting into power.

Or don't. Nobody bothered much with Germany in the lead up to WWII.

Re:gloomier?

[ShanghaiBill]

If Korea has already managed to automate away most of the jobs than can be automated away and they don't already have mass unemployment then that should be a positive sign that other countries can do the same.

We should also look at countries that have almost no automation. Some examples are Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Mozambique, Guinea, Somalia, and Mali. If automation leads to poverty then by avoiding it, these countries should be doing GREAT! Are they? I haven't checked.