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Robot-Launched Weather Balloons in Alaska Hasten Demise of Remote Stations (sciencemag.org)

Posted by msmash on from the shape-of-things-to-come dept.

The National Weather Service is choosing automated launchers over human employees to deploy weather balloons in Alaska. From a report: Last Thursday, just before 3 p.m., things began stirring inside the truck-size box that sat among melting piles of snow at the airport in Fairbanks, Alaska. Inside, software ran checks on instruments to measure atmospheric temperature, humidity, and pressure; a tray slid into place; and a nozzle began filling a large balloon with gas. Finally, the roof of the box yawned open and a weather balloon took off into the sunny afternoon, instruments dangling. The entire launch was triggered with the touch of a button, 5 kilometers away at an office of the National Weather Service (NWS).

The flight was smooth, just one of hundreds of twice-daily balloon launches around the world that radio back crucial data for weather forecasts. But most of those balloons are launched by people; the robotic launchers, which are rolling out across Alaska, are proving to be controversial. NWS says the autolaunchers will save money and free up staff to work on more pressing matters. But representatives of the employee union question their reliability, and say they will hasten the end of Alaska's remote weather offices, where forecasting duties and hours have already been slashed. "The autolauncher is just another nail in their coffin," says Kimberly Vaughan, a union steward in Juneau.

Once deployed across the state, the $1.2 million machines, built by Finnish company Vaisala, will save about 8 hours of forecaster time a day -- and about $1 million a year at NWS, Susan Buchanan, an NWS spokesperson says.

52 comments

  1. What was that saving? by tomhath · · Score: 3, Insightful

    will save about 8 hours of forecaster time a day -- and about $1 million a year at NWS

    Okay, I see that this is in Alaska. But a million dollars a year for one FTE? No wonder the union is squawking.

    1. Re:What was that saving? by b0bby · · Score: 3, Informative

      It seems like they are shooting for 3 FTEs per location, but because there aren't enough people they have to keep moving them around to cover. So while it still seems high, $333k per employee when you include transportation to remote areas and maintaining accommodations for them in said remote areas starts to seem more plausible. If you're flying in all supplies with a bush pilot things get expensive.

    2. Re:What was that saving? by Obfuscant · · Score: 2

      It seems like they are shooting for 3 FTEs per location,

      Eight hours a day is one FTE, not three. I guess if they said they're trying to replace one full time job and two needless supervisors with one machine, someone would have wondered why they needed the extra two people. At $333k/year you're talking about a pretty good paying job, even assuming that the pay is only half the cost of the employee. $150k/year is a good sum. You can see why the union is objecting.

      But then, is it REALLY an 8 hour task to prep and launch one of these balloons? Really? Because the robot is getting rid of that job, but it doesn't do the other parts of the process like look at and understand how the data fits into the whole picture, or deal with questions from the local weather users.

    3. Re:What was that saving? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The balloons launch every 6 hours. You need about 5 FTEs for 24/z. I think this reduces the 5 FTEs to about 3, which makes the math much more reasonable. Basically, the 0600z launch is remotely monitored, day shift reloads the machines, so you need about 2 FTEs to get 7 day/week local coverage. plus some allowance for 3 shifts of remote monitoring and management.

    4. Re:What was that saving? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I blame high school and college professors for colluding to keep Jwhyche out of this important science job !!

    5. Re:What was that saving? by StarryEyedSurprise · · Score: 1

      The balloons launch every 6 hours. You need about 5 FTEs for 24/z. I think this reduces the 5 FTEs to about 3, which makes the math much more reasonable. Basically, the 0600z launch is remotely monitored, day shift reloads the machines, so you need about 2 FTEs to get 7 day/week local coverage. plus some allowance for 3 shifts of remote monitoring and management.

      Balloons launch every 12 hours. Not 6. Unless there's a request for a special release, which is rare in Alaska.

    6. Re: What was that saving? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wasnâ(TM)t this on NPR like, 6 months ago?

    7. Re:What was that saving? by mikael · · Score: 1

      I wonder why they can't use drones rather than balloons. Balloons would seem to just drift with the wind and end up goodness knows where. Drones could be used to fly for hours with hydrogen fuel cells and then return to base.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    8. Re:What was that saving? by CaptQuark · · Score: 1

      will save about 8 hours of forecaster time a day -- and about $1 million a year at NWS

      Okay, I see that this is in Alaska. But a million dollars a year for one FTE? No wonder the union is squawking.

      From the article:

      Now, Buchanan says, NWS will need just one person [instead of three] at each remote site, to serve as a community liaison and to reload the autolauncher every 12 days. The other staff will relocate to bigger offices, like the ones in Anchorage or Fairbanks, where they can retrain for missions such as forecasting sea ice conditions and volcanic ash hazards, she says. The agency also plans to scale back office space and housing at the remote sites.

      So the mistake is trying to connect the 8 hours of forecaster time and the $1M in savings. They are two different things. The savings from the 8 hours of forecaster time might not be monetized and could just free the forecasters to do more needed work. The $1M saving could be from reductions in leasing office space, leasing permanent housing in a remote area, travel costs, recruiting and hiring costs, background checks, etc.

      ---

    9. Re:What was that saving? by lessthan · · Score: 1

      The drift is part of the point. Combined with GPS, you get wind speeds and directions at different heights from the movement of the balloons.

      --
      Space Shuttle was a program that strapped humans to an explosion and tried to stab through the sky with fire and math
  2. Unions: What are they for, again? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Unions: "We demand that these people get to keep their boring-ass, poorly paying jobs in remote, cold huts instead of allowing them to move to better paying jobs in warm warehouses putting together robot balloon containers!"

    1. Re:Unions: What are they for, again? by Obfuscant · · Score: 2

      Unions: "We demand that these people get to keep their boring-ass, poorly paying jobs

      If NWS is saving a million a year by getting rid of an employee, then it isn't a poorly paying job.

    2. Re:Unions: What are they for, again? by Holi · · Score: 2

      If automation makes this part of forecasting more efficient and less expensive then why are we bitching.

      Launching balloons is probably the least technical part of the job. So while I feel for these low skill employees at NWS, I feel it's better to save there where it will not effect our forecast accuracy.

      --
      Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
    3. Re:Unions: What are they for, again? by Obfuscant · · Score: 1

      If automation makes this part of forecasting more efficient and less expensive then why are we bitching.

      Why are you bitching? I'm not. I'm just pointing out that if they save $1 million a year after installing a $1.2 million machine and it is one FTE of time (ok, 1.4 FTE if you add weekends) then it must be a pretty good paying job -- as opposed to the poorly paying job that the OP claimed.

      So while I feel for these low skill employees at NWS,

      I think the summary, at least, was pretty explicit in saying it was saving forecaster's time -- and forecasting is not "low skill".

    4. Re:Unions: What are they for, again? by StarryEyedSurprise · · Score: 1

      The $1M a year isn't paid to the employee. It's funds designated to continue operation in one location where that employee works. If NWS can get an employee to take a job there.

    5. Re:Unions: What are they for, again? by Obfuscant · · Score: 1

      The $1M a year isn't paid to the employee.

      Thank you, Captain Obvious. Of course the savings would be salary PLUS benefits and costs. For normal employees, the usual estimate is the cost of an employee is twice the salary. Even if it is 3 times for this job, then the salary is well north of $200k/year. (One mil divided by 1.4 divided by three.)

      And that savings is AFTER spending $1.2 million the first year and ongoing maintenance costs the following ones.

    6. Re:Unions: What are they for, again? by lessthan · · Score: 1

      It is the funnest part though.

      --
      Space Shuttle was a program that strapped humans to an explosion and tried to stab through the sky with fire and math
  3. oh by cascadingstylesheet · · Score: 1

    The entire launch was triggered with the touch of a button, 5 kilometers away at an office of the National Weather Service (NWS).

    Dang, 5km away!! Tell me more about these robot computer thingies!

  4. Another job Jwhyche can't have because of liberals by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I blame high school and college professors for colluding to keep Jwhyche out of this important science job!

  5. math? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It appears to take $15.6 million to save $1 million a year. Those automated trucks have a 20 year life span?!? I find that unlikely.

    If you simply can't find anyone to go there and do it, then that is another thing.

    1. Re:math? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      RTFA. This is just anti-Trump clickbait from msmash.

  6. Aggregate Individuals by monkeyxpress · · Score: 1, Offtopic

    I'm sure these workers, who were in stable employment working in the great outdoors, will adapt just fine to stuffing amazon boxes on a zero-hour contract in a windowless warehouse, sleeping in their cars, and watching their new employer desperately trying to robot away their job. I mean, its only a couple of decades of trying to keep in front of the boot of automation and then they get to die anyway so no biggie right?

    Anyway, they can console themselves by thinking about how good all this progress will be for their children, once they get a better job so they afford to have them of course.

    [end of sarcasm]

  7. How will society survive? by Oswald+McWeany · · Score: 1

    How will society survive the robot automation of weather balloon launching.

    Weather balloon launching is the keystone to western civilization. I see us collapsing into the dark ages now this important career path has been stolen by robots.

    --
    "That's the way to do it" - Punch
  8. The real enemy by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not nearly as much as the creation of weather satellites.

  9. Clean up.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So who is going to clean up all the weather balloons that obviously have to come down at some point?

    1. Re:Clean up.... by Holi · · Score: 1

      They are on tethers. Do you think they just let them freely float on the winds? Most would land in the ocean then.

      --
      Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
    2. Re:Clean up.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Pretty much I'd think they'd let them float free given...

      https://www.google.com/search?q=Weather+balloon+trash

    3. Re:Clean up.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes, they allow them to "float on the winds". Radiosondes are free flying. https://www.weather.gov/upperair/factsheet

    4. Re:Clean up.... by thesupraman · · Score: 1

      I dont know what kind of weather balloons you are thinking of, however they are NOT normally on tethers.
      That is kind of the point, one of their major functions is to measure wind direction, strength, and temperature a LOT higher than any tether will get them.

  10. Buggy Whips by zarmanto · · Score: 2

    Oh well... just add it to the list, I guess:

    • * Gong farmers -- Who literally collected dog crap from people's yards, to re-purpose as fertilizer.
    • * Ice cutters -- As in, that guy in Frozen, whose job was apparently pretty dangerous, as it turns out.
    • * Knocker ups -- A distinctly boring job which consisted of knocking on doors and windows to wake people up... which was replaced by the lowly alarm clock.
    • * Lamplighters -- Who probably weren't all that happy about the invention of electric light-bulbs -- so we should all do our part to save their jobs, and shutdown everything we own that uses electricity to produce light, right? Right? Bueller?
    • * Leech collectors -- Who worked for (ahem!) "doctors". Now, let's just be honest; surely we're all glad that doctors don't use leeches anymore, right?
    • * Buggy Whip maker -- I would hope that we all recognize this reference by now.
    • * Weather Balloon Launchers -- and there we are.

    So, ummm... why is anybody upset about this, again?

    1. Re:Buggy Whips by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Doctors still use leeches.
      They keep blood flowing to limbs after they've been reattached after accidental amputation.

    2. Re:Buggy Whips by Holi · · Score: 2

      Doctors do use leeches still. Though they are bred and not collected. So leech collectors were replaced by leech breeders.

      --
      Sorry, teleporters just kill you and then make a copy. A perfect, soul-less copy.
    3. Re:Buggy Whips by zarmanto · · Score: 1

      Doctors do use leeches still. Though they are bred and not collected. So leech collectors were replaced by leech breeders.

      I think I now hate you, for making me look that up and learn about it. (Blech!)

    4. Re:Buggy Whips by mikael · · Score: 1

      Candle makers - who saw a massive loss in sales once windows and skylights were invented.

      --
      Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
    5. Re:Buggy Whips by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > So, ummm... why is anybody upset about this, again?

      Because by losing your job, these days you lose your dignity and your livelihood, you fucking moron.

      If we find a way to decouple that, I'm fine. I don't need a boring job. I can have loads of fun in life without buggy whips.

      But these days, the only way to (kinda) keep your livelihood is to compete with machines, and these are getting cheaper and cheaper.

      That's why.

  11. And the landings? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Am I the only one wondering what happens to these weather balloons and payload when they eventually return to earth?

    1. Re:And the landings? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "For the balloon, these breathtaking views will be its last moments. All throughout its ascent, the balloon has been expanding. It may have started out modestly, but now, at almost 18 miles (29 kilometers) high, the balloon has swelled to the size of a moving truck. Stretched to its limit, the balloon's thin synthetic rubber bursts and sends the tiny radiosonde plummeting back toward Earth. Within seconds, the wind catches a small, orange parachute and slows the device's descent. Hours later -- and hundreds of miles from where it first lifted off -- the weather balloon touches the ground."

  12. Sounds Good by Thelasko · · Score: 1

    Do they have a system to automatically release swamp gas too?

    --
    One of our competitors trademarked the term "hypothesis". From now on, we will call them "boneheaded ideas".
  13. 8 hours a day ? by dargaud · · Score: 2

    I've had to do that job among many others while in Antarctica. And the launches were much worse than in Alaska (where I've also been): insane winds (250+ km/h) or insane temperatures (-80C) . And it doesn't take '8 hours a day of forecaster's time' to launch a balloon, but about 15 minutes, then 2 hours to remotely collect data (while you work on something else) and a few minutes to send the result if you need to setup a manual internet connection. Anyway, just to say that automated launchers have existed for the last 30 years but they've never been reliable, maybe they've finally improved...

    --
    Non-Linux Penguins ?
    1. Re:8 hours a day ? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So you were able to launch a WX balloon reliably in 250+ km/h winds? The WX balloons I have seen launched were very fragile and would likely burst if an attempt to launch them in those conditions were made.

    2. Re:8 hours a day ? by dargaud · · Score: 1

      No, in 250 km/h winds, no attempts would be made. In 100~150km/h winds, 1 to 3 attempts would be made from a sheltered high spot to let the balloon rise somewhat before turbulence would tear it apart or the probe would hit the ground from the too horizontal trajectory. Success was low ! In extreme low temp conditions, the balloon would be inflated inside, the door opened and the launch would proceed immediately (and delicately) before the temp would tear the latex like paper. Curiously, once launched the increase in size due to the lower pressure wouldn't be an issue. Still we would reach 30% lower altitudes than at higher temperatures. Fun times.

      --
      Non-Linux Penguins ?
  14. Bring back the buggy whip makers. by Pascoea · · Score: 0

    say they will hasten the end of Alaska's remote weather offices, where forecasting duties and hours have already been slashed

    Go to a mirror, look yourself in the eye and shout: "YOU ARE NOT ENTITLED TO A JOB!" Things have been this way literally since the stone age. In order to raise up the whole, things must be made more efficient. Tools are invented that make manual tasks obsolete, and put people out of work. Some continue to work in the niches of the field, some retire, some re-train and do something else. This has been and always will be a way of life.

  15. Launch is automated by PPH · · Score: 1

    But who chases the bear off the roof to let the balloon release?

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  16. Same problem in Mining by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The same issue occurs here in Australia with mining. A quick back of the envelope calculation indicates it can cost up to $1 million Australian to keep a driver in a Haul pack [a huge dump truck] running 24 hours day, if we ignore downtime and maintenance. That needs 2-3 drivers plus their accommodation, food, flights in and out etc.

    To eliminate this cost the mining companies are heavily investing in autonomous trucks that navigate themselves to and from the excavation site and the rock crushing plant. They are monitored and managed from a control centre in Perth some 700+ miles away. Consider that one major miner has nearly 400 trucks across 10 or so sites in one part of Australia and you are looking at some serious savings.

    The technology path is becoming very clear for remote sites around the world now - full automation with a minimum of human intervention.

  17. Free up staff by ThurstonMoore · · Score: 1

    "free up staff to work on more pressing matters"

    Like finding a new job.

  18. Re:Impersonating me again Zontar? apk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

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    Everyone who trolls you is paid by Soros and the Jewish mafia

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