Tesla's Promised $35,000 Model 3 Is Still a Long Way Off (engadget.com)

When the Model 3 was first unveiled, it was pitched as an EV for the masses that would have a reasonable $35,000 price. Two years later and we still don't have a clear timeline as to when the $35,000 Model 3 will ship. In fact, Elon Musk last weekend unveiled the pricing and specs of a newer, more expensive Model 3 with AWD. It will cost $78,000. Engadget reports: CEO Elon Musk recently tweeted that the $35,000 Model 3 now won't ship until three to six months after Tesla achieves its 5,000 vehicle-per-week production goal. The reason for the new delay in the base model is simple: If the company was to ship it now, it would lose money on every vehicle and "die," as Musk put it. If Tesla had hit its initial forecasts and was producing 5,000 vehicles a week by January, the base, $35,000 Model 3 probably wouldn't have been delayed by so much. One potential problem for Tesla, as the WSJ points out, is that many of the 500,000 buyers who laid down a $1,000 deposit did so expecting to buy a $35,000 car, not a $49,000 one. When they get a letter saying the time has come to configure their EVs, quite a few might decide to back out, which could impact Tesla's already precarious cash flow situation.

Comments

Tesla needs to hurry up

[danhuby]

By the time Tesla manage to make a $35,000 Model 3, other manufacturers may well have beaten them to it.

Some are already close. The electric Hyundai IONIQ is less than $30,000 and if the range improves by 60 miles or so (50%) it will be competitive with the Model 3 - which doesn't seem like a huge leap.

And this is just one model. There is already the 180+ mile range Renault Zoe available in Europe, and the new LEAF has around 170 miles.

Re:Tesla needs to hurry up

[Rei]

Some are already close. The electric Hyundai IONIQ is less than $30,000 and if the range improves by 60 miles or so

Ioniq's EPA range is 124 miles. You're asking them to nearly double the Ioniq's range for pocket change.

Ioniq is also produced in very small volumes which Hyundai refuses to increase significantly - a good sign that the vehicle is a "compliance car".

Ioniq is also smaller, and much slower than Model 3.

There is already the 180+ mile range Renault Zoe available in Europe, and the new LEAF has around 170 miles.

Let's all say it together: stop confusing drivecycles. The Leaf's EPA range is 151 miles. The Zoe has no EPA rating, but given that it's WLTP range is only 5% more than the Leaf, expect around 159 miles. They're both slower vehicles (the Zoe *much* slower, even less HP than the Ioniq), but most importantly, they're both terrible at charging (the Ioniq is worse than the Model 3, but nothing compared to these two). Zoe only does "high power" AC charging, which is less common than DC charging, and only up to 43kW, vehicle-limited (Model 3 = up to 117kW from current superchargers, charger-limited - and a new gen of supercharger is coming out late this summer). Leaf is even worse: Nominally it can take up to 50kW, and in practice, at first, lower 40s. But the latest Leaf has been plagued with a problem called #RapidGate (google it). Basically, their lack of pack cooling finally caught up with them; you barely make it any distance on a trip before it throttles you back to half speed. And speaking of the lack of pack cooling, it means that Leafs suffer degradation faster than other EVs. And is it worth mentioning that the Zoe's interior quality is among the worst in modern EVs (arguably only beaten by the e-NV200) and has the least amount of cargo space?

There's a reason that half a million people flocked to the Model 3 and not the "competition", and yes, that's in quotes for a reason.

Re:Margin

[Rei]

I'm waiting for a SR Model 3. And I don't find this timeline bad in the least. And if you ask over at any of the Tesla forums, you'll find the same thing. SR was never supposed to be an early option. The whole vehicle is behind schedule, so why shouldn't the SR pack be as well? Particularly given that it was - until recently - the battery line holding production back.

Regardless, Beau and I apparently have a very different definition of "long way off". For people who've been waiting for this vehicle, an accelerated schedule (yes, accelerated) of 3-6 months from hitting 5k is a breath of fresh air; I think most people were expecting it to be further in the future than that. Before this, it was looking like SR would come out somewhere in Q1; now it looks like mid Q3 to mid Q4, possibly late Q4. For reference, going from the leaks, Giga is over 5k packs per week and Fremont around 4,2k vehicles per week, with a downtime starting later this week to upgrade Fremont to 5-6k.

Of course, as always people who have no interest in a Model 3 will concern troll this. Spare us.

Re:he announced a price that would have made loss.

[Rei]

preeetty sure nobody pre-ordered it with a disclaimer saying that "oh yeah we'll get around to making it once we can somehow make it for that price". come on.

The schedule was front and centre. Production of LRs was to begin first and follow an S curve starting at in July, peaking in December. Anyone logged into their account could see their particular estimated window for the LR version, which for early US reservation holders was somewhere along this curve. They could also see that if they chose the SR pack, it wouldn't be available until after LR production had peaked, in Q1.

Literally nothing has changed except for how long the LR rampup took. Maybe a slight stretch between LR peak and SR delivery, depending on how you interpret the delivery windows, but nothing meaningful. Yet once or twice a month we're treated to concern trolling about it, from people who have no interest in the Model 3 themselves. Just like we've been enduring this relentless concern trolling about the rampup. But now that the rampup has nearly completed, I guess we have to switch the concern trolling to something else. Tell me, after the SR is delivered, what's going to be the next topic to incessantly concern troll? Air suspension? The tow hitch? The Model Y?

Unrealistic expections

[sjbe]

that maybe so, that won't make the average punter who forked out the $1000 to support Tesla and reserve their $35k any happier that they are being given the arse end of the deal.

If anyone plunked down a deposit expecting to not have to wait a long time then they are idiots. 1) Tesla ALWAYS over promises delivery dates and routinely misses them. This is nothing new. 2) Tesla has ZERO experience with production at this volume. There is a learning curve. 3) If you buy the "cheap" model then you aren't their best customer and you should expect to go to the back of the line. Every business serves their best customers first. 4) A car received later is better than a car not received at all. 5) Tesla was up front that the pimped out models would be delivered first. Almost everyone has had to wait a little longer than hoped for.

Re: Unrealistic expections

[iamhassi]

Tesla has officially adopted the Kickstarter model of manufacturing.

But Tesla actually delivers eventually

Re:he announced a price that would have made loss.

[aaarrrgggh]

Hell, he is just maximizing subsidy value, get over it. He can't deliver car 200,000 until the beginning of Q3 2018, or a very large number of people would lose out on the tax credit. Tax credit is more valuable on the more expensive cars.

The Anti-Musk trolls / astroturfers are really getting old. Tesla might have issues, but they are very much out in the open. At least you get transparency...