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Tesla's Promised $35,000 Model 3 Is Still a Long Way Off (engadget.com)

When the Model 3 was first unveiled, it was pitched as an EV for the masses that would have a reasonable $35,000 price. Two years later and we still don't have a clear timeline as to when the $35,000 Model 3 will ship. In fact, Elon Musk last weekend unveiled the pricing and specs of a newer, more expensive Model 3 with AWD. It will cost $78,000. Engadget reports: CEO Elon Musk recently tweeted that the $35,000 Model 3 now won't ship until three to six months after Tesla achieves its 5,000 vehicle-per-week production goal. The reason for the new delay in the base model is simple: If the company was to ship it now, it would lose money on every vehicle and "die," as Musk put it. If Tesla had hit its initial forecasts and was producing 5,000 vehicles a week by January, the base, $35,000 Model 3 probably wouldn't have been delayed by so much. One potential problem for Tesla, as the WSJ points out, is that many of the 500,000 buyers who laid down a $1,000 deposit did so expecting to buy a $35,000 car, not a $49,000 one. When they get a letter saying the time has come to configure their EVs, quite a few might decide to back out, which could impact Tesla's already precarious cash flow situation.

32 of 276 comments (clear)

  1. Margin by MachineShedFred · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's almost like you want to sell the higher margin ones first, in order to help pay for the amazing capital expenditure it takes to build a car assembly line.

    Who is shocked by this? Nobody should be, as this is how it has always worked.

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    1. Re:Margin by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      that maybe so, that won't make the average punter who forked out the $1000 to support Tesla and reserve their $35k any happier that they are being given the arse end of the deal.

    2. Re:Margin by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

      I'm waiting for a SR Model 3. And I don't find this timeline bad in the least. And if you ask over at any of the Tesla forums, you'll find the same thing. SR was never supposed to be an early option. The whole vehicle is behind schedule, so why shouldn't the SR pack be as well? Particularly given that it was - until recently - the battery line holding production back.

      Regardless, Beau and I apparently have a very different definition of "long way off". For people who've been waiting for this vehicle, an accelerated schedule (yes, accelerated) of 3-6 months from hitting 5k is a breath of fresh air; I think most people were expecting it to be further in the future than that. Before this, it was looking like SR would come out somewhere in Q1; now it looks like mid Q3 to mid Q4, possibly late Q4. For reference, going from the leaks, Giga is over 5k packs per week and Fremont around 4,2k vehicles per week, with a downtime starting later this week to upgrade Fremont to 5-6k.

      Of course, as always people who have no interest in a Model 3 will concern troll this. Spare us.

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    3. Re:Margin by Rei · · Score: 2

      The reservations told you exactly what you were getting for what price and with a timeline that showed SR not being made until LR was being made in volume. there is nobody with an order who didn't know A) that $35k is for the SR pack, and B) the LR pack was going into production first.

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      Give a boy a gun and you arm him for a day. Teach him how to make a gun, and the whole metaphor breaks down.
    4. Re:Margin by The+Cynical+Critic · · Score: 2

      Not me... There's more than enough legitimate things you can criticize Musk and Tesla for, but this really isn't one of them. It's kind of funny how heavily people are divided into either doomsayers and evangelists on Tesla (and it would seem like the doomsayers are a considerably larger group). Anyone with even cursory knowledge of how mass production of goods like cars works will have known that lower margin cars will have much lower priority when it comes to how limited production is allocated.

      Still, I'm genuinely curious as to how many more cars per week they're going to produce after they've shut down the production line for about a week starting this Saturday. If they can actually reach the goal of 6000 cars per week by the end of June it shouldn't be too long before they can start making the low-end cars and break even on them thanks to considerably lower per-car overhead costs.

      --
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    5. Re:Margin by AmiMoJo · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It's just frustrating. I don't want to go back to fossil, but I need more range. The Leaf 40 is a disaster, and who knows if the 60 will be any better. CPO prices on Teslas are silly here and the new no-refurb CPO is a joke.

      And we are looking at late 2020, maybe 2021 to actually get an M3 of any kind. I'd get an LR if one was available.

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    6. Re:Margin by squiggleslash · · Score: 2

      Yeah, those were supposedly called the Model S and model X.

      (Yes, I know Tesla then decided to build an entirely new assembly line, but that doesn't justify claiming that the Model 3 would be half the price it actually sells for.)

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    7. Re:Margin by Rei · · Score: 2

      To repeat: this is being pushed further up the queue, not back, despite how Beau presented it in this Slashdot summary.

      And tell me, where do you go to find the opinions of Tesla buyers?

      --
      Give a boy a gun and you arm him for a day. Teach him how to make a gun, and the whole metaphor breaks down.
    8. Re:Margin by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

      The infrastructure build needed to support EVs is expensive and takes time to build out. The boutique mall in my little rural village just sprouted a row of ten Tesla chargers, so it is coming.

      Ultimately, it all comes down to batteries. Every advance in EV range is worth years of building more charging stations.

    9. Re: Margin by MachineShedFred · · Score: 2

      And if your previous product lines are not sufficient volume because they were never intended to be, you go to capital markets and get the resources to expand, yes? Literally every business does this during growth phases.

      And you pay back those commercial notes with what? Future profits generated through the expansion. Also known as product margin. And that is maximized how? Producing higher margin products.

      You know, exactly what Tesla is doing. Please try to keep up.

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    10. Re:Margin by CanHasDIY · · Score: 2

      Where do you live that it costs nothing to use those chargers?

      Indeed, I see them in grocery store parking lots - no meter, just a plug.

      --
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    11. Re:Margin by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      The infrastructure build needed to support EVs is expensive and takes time to build out.

      Oh look, that excuse again. In the mean time if you look to Europe where the EV market is quite big you'll see poor infrastructure that is massively underutilised as it is because *shock* one of the biggest selling points of EVs is that the infrastructure is in your garage.

    12. Re:Margin by Rei · · Score: 3

      I have some great news AC, but you may want to be sitting down for it. Ready?

      There exists a world outside of America!

      I don't live in the US. What happens to your tax incentive has no bearing on me.

      As for those who do: how does moving the expected SR delivery time foward hurt those waiting on the SR? You do realize that this timetable laid out by Musk means that the start delivering the SR with 1/2 to 1 1/2 quarters of full credit left, plus 2 quarters of half credits, plus to quarters of quarter-credits, don't you?

      --
      Give a boy a gun and you arm him for a day. Teach him how to make a gun, and the whole metaphor breaks down.
    13. Re:Margin by Applehu+Akbar · · Score: 2

      The mall in question is private but we get a lot of tourist traffic through here in season, so the chargers are probably to entice that traffic in to the coffee shops and art galleries. People come to this area for the art and the rock formations.

  2. Tesla needs to hurry up by danhuby · · Score: 3, Informative

    By the time Tesla manage to make a $35,000 Model 3, other manufacturers may well have beaten them to it.

    Some are already close. The electric Hyundai IONIQ is less than $30,000 and if the range improves by 60 miles or so (50%) it will be competitive with the Model 3 - which doesn't seem like a huge leap.

    And this is just one model. There is already the 180+ mile range Renault Zoe available in Europe, and the new LEAF has around 170 miles.

    1. Re:Tesla needs to hurry up by Aighearach · · Score: 2

      The battery is a huge cost! Increasing the battery by 50% is certainly going to increase the price by more than $5k, more than $10k probably. But they don't actually need to increase it by 50%, they need to increase it by 80%. But oops, that's a lot of weight! Then you need a bigger motor, as the existing one is under-sized. You also may need to change other things with that huge a weight jump. You probably need to re-engineer the whole thing.

      The whole point of the Model 3 is that it is good enough to replace a regular car for most people, it is not just a city car like the Ioniq. Having city cars that are cheaper won't hurt the sales at all; there were always cheaper short-range vehicles, and they were rarely purchased.

    2. Re:Tesla needs to hurry up by Rei · · Score: 5, Informative

      Some are already close. The electric Hyundai IONIQ is less than $30,000 and if the range improves by 60 miles or so

      Ioniq's EPA range is 124 miles. You're asking them to nearly double the Ioniq's range for pocket change.

      Ioniq is also produced in very small volumes which Hyundai refuses to increase significantly - a good sign that the vehicle is a "compliance car".

      Ioniq is also smaller, and much slower than Model 3.

      There is already the 180+ mile range Renault Zoe available in Europe, and the new LEAF has around 170 miles.

      Let's all say it together: stop confusing drivecycles. The Leaf's EPA range is 151 miles. The Zoe has no EPA rating, but given that it's WLTP range is only 5% more than the Leaf, expect around 159 miles. They're both slower vehicles (the Zoe *much* slower, even less HP than the Ioniq), but most importantly, they're both terrible at charging (the Ioniq is worse than the Model 3, but nothing compared to these two). Zoe only does "high power" AC charging, which is less common than DC charging, and only up to 43kW, vehicle-limited (Model 3 = up to 117kW from current superchargers, charger-limited - and a new gen of supercharger is coming out late this summer). Leaf is even worse: Nominally it can take up to 50kW, and in practice, at first, lower 40s. But the latest Leaf has been plagued with a problem called #RapidGate (google it). Basically, their lack of pack cooling finally caught up with them; you barely make it any distance on a trip before it throttles you back to half speed. And speaking of the lack of pack cooling, it means that Leafs suffer degradation faster than other EVs. And is it worth mentioning that the Zoe's interior quality is among the worst in modern EVs (arguably only beaten by the e-NV200) and has the least amount of cargo space?

      There's a reason that half a million people flocked to the Model 3 and not the "competition", and yes, that's in quotes for a reason.

      --
      Give a boy a gun and you arm him for a day. Teach him how to make a gun, and the whole metaphor breaks down.
    3. Re:Tesla needs to hurry up by Duds · · Score: 3, Insightful

      There's the powerful counterpoint of course that those vehicles actually exist, the $35k Tesla 3 does not in production quantities and is sliding further into the future with every announcement.

      By the time I can walk into a Tesla dealer (especially in the UK as the RHD will be even further behind) and buy a standard Tesla 3, there will be probably another 2 major updates to that Ioniq. And maybe Ford etc will have their hands properly in play.

  3. Negative stories by mrwireless · · Score: 2

    There is a steady stream of negative stories about Tesla popping up recently. So many that it is starting to feel a bit artificial.

  4. Re:Still a failure at mass production by Rei · · Score: 2

    People in the market for a Tesla want an EV that they can use as an actual car (incl. trips without excessive wait times), and which isn't a hair shirt, but rather something that's actually fun to drive.

    --
    Give a boy a gun and you arm him for a day. Teach him how to make a gun, and the whole metaphor breaks down.
  5. Re:he announced a price that would have made loss. by Rei · · Score: 4, Informative

    preeetty sure nobody pre-ordered it with a disclaimer saying that "oh yeah we'll get around to making it once we can somehow make it for that price". come on.

    The schedule was front and centre. Production of LRs was to begin first and follow an S curve starting at in July, peaking in December. Anyone logged into their account could see their particular estimated window for the LR version, which for early US reservation holders was somewhere along this curve. They could also see that if they chose the SR pack, it wouldn't be available until after LR production had peaked, in Q1.

    Literally nothing has changed except for how long the LR rampup took. Maybe a slight stretch between LR peak and SR delivery, depending on how you interpret the delivery windows, but nothing meaningful. Yet once or twice a month we're treated to concern trolling about it, from people who have no interest in the Model 3 themselves. Just like we've been enduring this relentless concern trolling about the rampup. But now that the rampup has nearly completed, I guess we have to switch the concern trolling to something else. Tell me, after the SR is delivered, what's going to be the next topic to incessantly concern troll? Air suspension? The tow hitch? The Model Y?

    --
    Give a boy a gun and you arm him for a day. Teach him how to make a gun, and the whole metaphor breaks down.
  6. $35,000 Model 3 Is Still a Long Way Off by Hognoxious · · Score: 5, Funny

    Alternative explanation: it's actually very small.

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  7. Unrealistic expections by sjbe · · Score: 4, Informative

    that maybe so, that won't make the average punter who forked out the $1000 to support Tesla and reserve their $35k any happier that they are being given the arse end of the deal.

    If anyone plunked down a deposit expecting to not have to wait a long time then they are idiots. 1) Tesla ALWAYS over promises delivery dates and routinely misses them. This is nothing new. 2) Tesla has ZERO experience with production at this volume. There is a learning curve. 3) If you buy the "cheap" model then you aren't their best customer and you should expect to go to the back of the line. Every business serves their best customers first. 4) A car received later is better than a car not received at all. 5) Tesla was up front that the pimped out models would be delivered first. Almost everyone has had to wait a little longer than hoped for.

    1. Re: Unrealistic expections by iamhassi · · Score: 3, Informative

      Tesla has officially adopted the Kickstarter model of manufacturing.

      But Tesla actually delivers eventually

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  8. Leaf isn't your only option by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's just frustrating. I don't want to go back to fossil, but I need more range. The Leaf 40 is a disaster, and who knows if the 60 will be any better.

    So buy a Chevy Bolt or a Volt. Both have much better range than the Leaf and are decent cars in their own right. The Leaf is a car that is useful for short commutes and that's it. If you need more then buy something else.

    1. Re:Leaf isn't your only option by teg · · Score: 2

      It's just frustrating. I don't want to go back to fossil, but I need more range. The Leaf 40 is a disaster, and who knows if the 60 will be any better.

      So buy a Chevy Bolt or a Volt. Both have much better range than the Leaf and are decent cars in their own right. The Leaf is a car that is useful for short commutes and that's it. If you need more then buy something else.

      In Europe, the Opel Ampera had a multi-year waiting list. GM just wasn't able to/didn't want to deliver the desired quantities. After GM sold Opel, it's uncertain if they'll ever deliver them.

  9. Cost of capital by sjbe · · Score: 2

    Which suggests that all those people who "only" buy the $35k model (expensive for a car, still!) are second-class customers whose business alone can't sustain the company, whether or not they are early adopters, first in the queue, etc. etc.

    You fail Cost Accounting 101. Tesla invested a huge sum of money up front to build an assembly line. To recoup that cost you have to sell a lot of units. The fastest way to get out of the red is to sell the units with the highest margins first. If you don't get out of the red then the company experiences an opportunity cost having the money tied up in capital equipment that it could put to better use elsewhere.

    You shouldn't be using CAR SALES to pay for the CAR ASSEMBLY LINE. That's what all those millions in investment were for.

    You have no idea how manufacturing actually works do you? The ONLY thing that will pay for that assembly line is sales and that is true for every product from any company. The investors money isn't a gift and it has to be repaid. Doesn't matter if the money to build the line came from the company savings or from outside investors. The only difference is the cost of capital. You have to sell product to pay for it and capital tooling expenses get paid for over periods of years. Any company that doesn't serve their highest margin customers first is monumentally stupid. Furthermore Tesla was up front that this was EXACTLY what they were going to do.

  10. Might want to check those figures by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    There's the powerful counterpoint of course that those vehicles actually exist, the $35k Tesla 3 does not in production quantities and is sliding further into the future with every announcement.

    The Ioniq EV sold 6797 units last year globally. Tesla delivered more Model 3s than that last QUARTER and is accelerating production. In fact Tesla delivered more Model 3s than the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Lead COMBINED in Jan and Feb this year. Right now Tesla is delivering around 2800 Model 3s per week.

    By the time I can walk into a Tesla dealer (especially in the UK as the RHD will be even further behind) and buy a standard Tesla 3, there will be probably another 2 major updates to that Ioniq. And maybe Ford etc will have their hands properly in play.

    That's a nice little fantasy story you are telling yourself. You do know Ford is literally stopping production of almost all non-truck vehicles right? And you think the Ioniq is going to magically be redesigned massively to compete on range with the Tesla?

  11. Re:he announced a price that would have made loss. by aaarrrgggh · · Score: 3, Informative

    Hell, he is just maximizing subsidy value, get over it. He can't deliver car 200,000 until the beginning of Q3 2018, or a very large number of people would lose out on the tax credit. Tax credit is more valuable on the more expensive cars.

    The Anti-Musk trolls / astroturfers are really getting old. Tesla might have issues, but they are very much out in the open. At least you get transparency...

  12. Re:35K Tesla by iamhassi · · Score: 2

    Nobody replaces the batteries in these cars. A Prius battery is $7500 and by the time you need to replace the battery the car is already ready for a trade in.

    Why do people still think hybrid and EV batteries need frequent replacement? This isn't the junk cellphone they bought that won't last a hour after 2 years of use. Prius are frequently used as taxis with 300,000 miles on them. Consumer reports tested a 2003 215,000 mile Prius and found the battery capacity barely diminished. Even if somehow the battery is dead, Toyota MSRP for a replacement battery is $3,600 but there's a $1,300 refund for the old battery so you're really only paying $2,300. That's not bad. https://www.greencarreports.co...

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  13. Re: "For the masses"? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2
    Uh, you failed a bit in reading comprehension. First line in this thread:

    $35k is double the price of a Corolla

    Kind of states they are talking about the $35K Model 3, doesn't it? Or are you suggesting you can get the high-end model for just $35K?

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  14. Re: "For the masses"? by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2

    There are many states in the world with even higher prices. You gas buddy must be wrong. And the electricity rate is a special rate for off-peak EV charging. The usual rate is around $0.2/kWh.

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