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Smartphone Shipments Declined For the First Time In 2017 (theverge.com)
2017 was the first year that smartphone unit shipments didn't grow, according to a new Internet Trends report. "Shipments actually declined by 0.5 percent, as IDC noted in February," reports The Verge. "In 2016, shipments were lukewarm at 2 percent yearly growth, but this downturn is significant." From the report: Among smartphone shipments, Android and iOS have all but completely pushed out every other mobile operating system. And despite the growing price of today's top flagship devices, the average selling price of a smartphone has steadily fallen over the years. As more of the world now owns smartphones, growth has basically stalled. Similarly, internet user growth has only grown 7 percent in 2017, compared to 12 percent in 2016. More people are accessing the internet than ever, on an average of 5.9 hours a day. And they're browsing on mobile, indicating that they're just holding onto older models of phones instead of buying new ones.
Now that that practice has been bred out through consumer uproar, people are probably realising they don't actually need a phone every 2 years because most are good for 4 - 5 years for 99% of the population.
Estimated number of smartphone users: ~2.5 billion
Smartphones sold each year: ~1.5 billion
Estimated growth: ~200 million
Average lifetime: 2500/(1500-200) = ~2 years
The facts reject your hypothesis.
Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
Based on the assumption that Android phones last about four years, which may be an underestimate (my own phone for example) then over five billion Android phones are in use right now. This is the real story, this is phenomenal. And all running Linux, this is even more phenomenal. We did something historical, maybe the biggest technology story ever. Certainly a key event in history.
When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.
"Hanging onto its sliver of the market" is an odd way of describing the best selling, most profitable smartphone that is continually improving its numbers and breaking its own records.
1) At the beginning, item X (desktop PC, flatscreen TV, smartphone, whatever) is damn expensive and almost nobody except rich hipsters has one.
2) As R&D costs are amortized and production lines ramp up, prices drop, more people can afford item X, and sales increase.
3) Then really cheap Chinese knockoffs appear, and sales really take off.
4) Eventually, everybody that wants one, and can afford one, has one. At that point sales drop down to replacement levels for older ones that wear out, fall on the floor, are stolen, whatever.
A few years ago there was hoopla about "the end of the desktop PC". The PC market hasn't disappeared; it's matured and sales have stabilized at replacement levels. I expect the same to happen for smartphones.
I'm not repeating myself
I'm an X window user; I'm an ex-Windows user
Q1 iPhone shipmments are off 1 million, YoY. If you are an Apple shareholder that ought to worry you. But then, you are an Apple cultist, so nothing worries you, including maxing out your credit to own it.
Apple cultists are not only unworried about these obvious warning signs, they will take the opportunity do downmod anyone who points them out, if they can. Makes me wonder what other slimy things Apple is in the habit of doing on social networks? Seems to come very naturally for Apple cultists, almost like it is corporate culture still living on from Dead Steve Jobs.
When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a thumb.