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Self-Driving Cars Likely Won't Steal Your Job (Until 2040) (wired.com)
The self-driving robots are coming to transform your job. Kind of. Also, very slowly. From a report: That's the not-quite-exclamatory upshot of a new report from the Washington, DC-based Securing America's Future Energy. The group advocates for a countrywide pivot away from oil dependency, one it hopes will be aided by the speedy adoption of electric, self-driving vehicles. So it commissioned a wide-ranging study by a phalanx of labor economists to discover how that could happen, and whether America might transform into a Mad Max-like desert hell along the way. The news, mostly, is good. For one, self-driving vehicles probably won't wreck the labor market to the point where gig economy workers are hired out as mobile blood bags.
In fact, they'll eventually feed the economy, accruing an estimated $800 billion in annual benefits by 2050, a number mostly in line with previous researchers' projections. Two, robo-cars won't disappear the jobs all at once. "We have a labor market characterized by churning -- continual job creation and destruction," says Erica Groshen, a visiting labor economist at Cornell University and former Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who worked on the report. "The challenge is to make the transition as smooth as possible."
In fact, they'll eventually feed the economy, accruing an estimated $800 billion in annual benefits by 2050, a number mostly in line with previous researchers' projections. Two, robo-cars won't disappear the jobs all at once. "We have a labor market characterized by churning -- continual job creation and destruction," says Erica Groshen, a visiting labor economist at Cornell University and former Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who worked on the report. "The challenge is to make the transition as smooth as possible."
There is a lot of potential and not just on the road. Out here on the farm and in the forests self-driving tractors, skidders, buncher grabbers, conveyers, wagons and delivery vehicles have a lot of potential. They are levers that amplify us. Just as it is easier to hammer in a nail with a hammer than your hand it is easier to move round bales of hay with a tractor than by hand. Self driving tractors would let me instruct them to put out hay to our pastured pigs in the winter (hay replaces fresh pasture) rather than my having to drive the tractor. Then I am freed up for other tasks.
"We have a labor market characterized by churning -- continual job creation and destruction,"
That is OLD SCHOOL THINKING. No longer applicable.
That will no longer be true once AI and automated systems capabilities generally get better than the corresponding human ability.
Example: There's a technology that is better now at detecting certain types of tumours in images than radiologists.
We have to change our analysis of future job prospects, and not just rely on "something else will come up for people to do."
There will be a cross-over point for each type of job when automated system will be better at it and more cost effective than a person.
That will start happening to more and more job categories (or at least their most important tasks) faster and faster, as AI and automation continue their rapid advancement in capability.
Automation and AI are improving fast.
People are not.
Get used to it.
Where are we going and why are we in a handbasket?
Uber or not, it's going to take a long time to work out who takes responsibility when something bad happens and there is no steering wheel. You can't hold a person responsible for an accident when they are always just a passenger and never a driver. It's their property and they should cover it against theft and damage by vandalism and other unfortunate events. But someone else has decided how that vehicle will behave in every possible situation, so a person should not insure for what it does.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
most of the people reading this will still be alive then. For the older set who actually have the time an inclination to vote now's the time to do something about it. If the younger lot can't work your retirement's going to collapse with the rest of the economy. If you let that happen then you won't even be left with dog food.
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Securing America's Future Energy is a lobbying organization that represents oil companies like Chevron. So this is just junk. Slashdot needs to stop reposting this drivel.
Uber or not, it's going to take a long time to work out who takes responsibility when something bad happens and there is no steering wheel.
This is already "worked out". Manufacturers are responsible for their products. When brakes failed on Toyotas, it was Toyota's problem. When Tesla Autopilot crashed into a truck the same color as the sky, it was Tesla's problem.
Actually, yes, I believe Tesla is much closer than 22 years away from having a self-driving truck. Far more than a self-driving car at least.
Trucks drive a lot differently than cars. Most truck driving is highway driving. A large part of truck driving... especially the type that is is associated with jobs counts is logistical from business park to business park. It is entirely possible and likely that companies that are moving stuff from docks to warehouse or warehouse to warehouse can very easily be made self-driving friendly.
Also, with the exception of managing traffic diversions due to construction (which I haven't seen yet on self driving vehicles), trucks can make the majority of their transit in the a single lane on the highway.
Also, it could be possible for a business to arise for "last mile operators" who are vehicle operators that are responsible for navigating populated areas in trucks. As such, they would assist the truck from the loading dock to the highway and then be picked up by a shuttle bus. Then they could be delivered by a shuttle bus to the highway and assist trucks the last mile to the unloading docks.
I am very much under the belief that we will accomplish self-driving trucks long before we achieve self-driving vehicles that could navigate my neighborhood.
Trucks drive a lot differently than cars. Most truck driving is highway driving.
Even so, autonomous trucks will still require all the same "abilities" that autonomous cars will need. And then some more. They will still have to navigate normal roads (the "final mile" problem) and deal with the vagaries of other road users.
So if the critical path to AV deployment is the technology, the limiting factor is still development of the systems needed.
I can see that once AVs gain a foothold on roads, the pressure to go fully AV will be very strong and very rapid. Possibly to the point where supply cannot meet demand. The reasons being that an AV will (once the safety systems are sorted out) never be the cause of an accident, so the burden on human drivers will become immense. Even if there is doubt, the commercial interests behind AV technology will crush any ordinary driver trying to make a defence that the "other guy" (or AV) was at fault. And that will cause driver insurance rates to rocket - to the point where every human driver will face crushing costs.
If I was a car maker, I would be looking towards making a "back-port" of all the smarts. One that could be fitted into existing vehicles - maybe even petrol ones - to fulfill the driver functions without having to replace the entire car. Just rip out thr driver's seat and controls and install a "black box" there, then cover the car with sensors.
politicians are like babies' nappies: they should both be changed regularly and for the same reasons
Self driving will be an unreliable novelty until major road improvements are made. A system of cameras/radar fails under too many circumstances. There will have to be road bed sensors marking out the lanes. There will have to be a central control unit that controls traffic flow. There will have to be 5g wireless comm that has very little lag and very high reliability. None of this is happening in under 20 years, and gov't hasn't started the clock yet.
Electric cars will be a drain on the economy. Higher adoption rates will run smack against grid improvements. There will be a need for many more charging stations. Since charging takes hours, we would need probably 10x as many as there are gas stations. Once again, the clock hasn't started on this yet.
Where will the money come from in a sluggish economy with debt out the kazoo at every level? Answer, it won't. Not for decades.
This is not true. You are only responsible if you are NEGLIGENT. Look up the legal meaning of that word.
If your toaster causes a fire, that is not your fault unless you were careless or used it improperly. For example you were using it to light newspapers. Or you knew it was faulty (perhaps it sparked before) and you didn't do anything about it.
There is no way you could be held responsible for a self driving car with no user controls. Unless there was reason to believe you didn't properly maintain it, or you hacked the software, etc...
I wouldn't disagree with that but Waymo appear to be years ahead of the competition, 5600 miles on average now before the driver needs to intervene, 100 times further than uber vehicles.
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They will still have to navigate normal roads
Huh? Most trucks aren't allowed on normal roads. They leave the warehouse and drive on the highway where the exit will take them right to the next warehouse. That's kind of why warehouses aren't actually positioned in city centres in the first place.
and deal with the vagaries of other road users.
See above: The other road users will be mostly trucks. The last mile problem for trucks is typically more accurately described as the last 200 yards. GP's point is that it's order of magnitudes easier to do this with a truck and they're right.
-That, or when we turn into Mad Max world and have guitar flamethrower cars.
1) You don't get to decide what work other people should find to be a waste of one's existence. Plenty of people would rather not have to deal with coworkers or customers, and like time on the road.
2) As much as I'd like to live in a word where automation makes it possible for everyone to live without worrying about where the money for food, rent, utilities, etc comes from, we're not on that path. The people whose jobs get automated don't get taken care of - they get screwed. And I don't see any reason to think that's going to change any time soon.
Self driving will be an unreliable novelty until major road improvements are made.
The self driving will remain an unreliable novelty. We can barely fund the repair work needed bring our worst roads up to current standards. Major improvements to all roads to make them easier for automated vehicles that may or may not be coming? Flying cars will happen first.