Slashdot Mirror
We're All Getting Dumber, Says Science (fastcompany.com)
dryriver shares a report from Fast Company: Researchers at Norway's Ragnar Frisch Center for Economic Research now have scientific proof of something we've long suspected -- we're all getting dumber. In their paper, "Flynn effect and its reversal are both environmentally caused," which was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Bernt Bratsberg and Ole Rogeberg report that IQ scores have been steadily dropping since the 1970s.
The study consisted of analyzing 730,000 IQ test results gleaned from young men entering Norway's compulsory military service from 1970 to 2009. They found that scores declined by an average of seven points per generation, a reversal of the so-called "Flynn effect" where IQ was seen to be rising during the first part of the 20th century. The decline may be due to environmental factors, but because the researchers couldn't find consistent trends among families, Bratsberg and Rogeberg discounted factors like parental education, family size, increased immigration, and genetics as significant causes.
The study consisted of analyzing 730,000 IQ test results gleaned from young men entering Norway's compulsory military service from 1970 to 2009. They found that scores declined by an average of seven points per generation, a reversal of the so-called "Flynn effect" where IQ was seen to be rising during the first part of the 20th century. The decline may be due to environmental factors, but because the researchers couldn't find consistent trends among families, Bratsberg and Rogeberg discounted factors like parental education, family size, increased immigration, and genetics as significant causes.
In the early 20th century, human living conditions, including improvements in sanitation, hygiene, and dietary needs being met likely all contributed to a net rise in human cogitative performance, however atmospheric CO2 levels have also been steadily rising in that time.
Then there's this.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/p...
So yeah. Probably CO2 level rise has caught up to the benefits of improved standards of living.
One important thing about this study - it shows that there is not a strong genetic correlation with any of these findings. That means it is very unlikely that this represents any kind of "Idiocracy"-like trend of the 'dumb genes' outnumbering 'smart genes.'
Rather, as mentioned, it is a cultural/environmental set of factors.
If this is replicated outside of Norway, perhaps we've been making ourselves more dumb, either by forcing our less-well-off to live without access to education, or distracting ourselves in such a way that we no longer pass tests as children anymore.
On the skeptical side, while the Flynn effect studies counter for cultural-shift in popular knowledge pretty well - there could still be some measurement effect in there, like fewer students being able to cheat, or fewer administrators getting away with fudging numbers.
Ryan Fenton
Well no. At first, every male gets tested for fitness, including the IQ test taken. Only then people are either sorted out because of unfitness or can decide to go to a cilivian duty instead of the military duty.
For example when is the IQ test conducted? Before they are conscripted into service of before that as an evaluation of their abilities? Because you need to keep in mind that while service is compulsory in theory, in practice they do not conscript even half of the people they test.
Maybe someone from Norway or simply with more insight can shed some light onto this. Wikipedia tells me that there's about 60k people available for conscription every year. But only up to 10k is actually conscripted. Even considering changes in population groth both numbers over a period of 39 years (from 1970 to 2009) don't come close to the 730k IQ test that were conducted. Of course the source is Wikipedia which provides some links to articles on news sites.
There could still be some bias. If you also consider that you can avoid being conscripted via other means. Up until 2012 there was also the option to do alternative civilian service (Sosialtjenesten) instead of military service in Norway.
Their findings are interesting nonetheless.
I started writing a reply, then realised that without more information it's hard to analyse the problem, and the article isn't freely available, unfortunately.
IQ tests don't test a single aspect of intelligence, and it matters what kind of tests have lower scores. Do these have more to fluid or crystallised intelligence? We could then further speculate what caused the particular change. For example, education has moved over the years to better address how girls learn, and it could have negatively affected how boys learn to think.
Question:
Is there any particular incentive to do either well or badly in the test? Does it affect your military service in any way?
The point I am getting at is that military service was to get more or less acceptable then this might affect the motivation of those taking the tests.
Simplified Example:
Many years ago potential conscripts thought "Gosh, my turn to do my bit for my beloved country. I'd better try really hard in these tests".
Today potential conscripts think "Bah, why do I have to do this stupid military service? I really can't be bothered".
Result: Noticeable decline in IQ results!
I'm sort of in the ADHD camp. I've read a bit about the subject and somewhat adhere to the theory that a) ADHD isn't as much a disorder rather than a genetic predestination. Roughly 10% of society being Hunter/Gatherer (creative, priest, leader, rebell, etc,), the rest being farmers/settlers. It's a bit of a chicken/egg problem: Do I have low self-esteem because im ADHD or do I have ADHD as a symptom of low self-esteem? Or is both linked to brain performance or is both linked to lack of social proof for aberrant behavior (minimalist stoic)?
Childhood media consumption definitely plays into this, as it trains us to look for emotional states that are fully decoupled from the "mundane" reality around us.
I however have also noticed how much nutrition and psychological factors play into emotional wellbeing and how much that plays into brain performance.
Another thing that happened recently is that I finally had my nose-divider corrected (at the age of 47). I, for the first time in my life, can breathe properly. Or at least way better than before. The difference in my cognitive abilities is palpable. I can concentrate longer and deeper with less strain. I'm pretty sure that my confidence has risen due to that and that feeds back into my ability to concentrate. Sleep-apnosis is know to severely influence cognitive abilities (access to oxygen).
Last but not least, I've noticed how extremely nutrition influences cognitive performance. Processed foods make me less concentrated and more sleepy vis-a-vis organic fresh foods. Again, the difference is palpable.
Bottom line:
There are some theories about rising CO2 levels and whatnot, but I bet dollars to donuts that if IQ really is declining again across the board that childhood media consumption and nutrition are the most significant factors playing into this.
And I have some personal anecdotal evidence to back this up.
My 2 cents.
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
Take a population with an average IQ of 100 and mass-import a new population with an average IQ of 85 and what happens to the combined average? It shouldn't take a Doctorate in Mathematics to figure this out.