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Can NASA Protect Earth from Catastrophic Asteroid Collisions? (scientificamerican.com)
An anonymous reader quotes Qz:
NASA is not going to be able to find all the asteroids big enough to cause serious devastation on Earth by 2020 -- or even 2033. Also: For a hypothetical attempt to send a spacecraft to divert an seriously dangerous incoming asteroid, we'll need a ten year heads-up to build it and get it to the asteroid.
The good news? They're working on it. "If a real threat does arise, we are prepared to pull together the information about what options might work and provide that information to decision-makers," Lindley Johnson, NASA's Planetary Defense Officer, told reporters.
But NASA's methodology is now being criticized by former Microsoft CTO Nathan Myhrvold -- in the peer-reviewed journal Icarus. An anonymous reader quotes Scientific American: Since 2016, Nathan Myhrvold has argued that there are fatal flaws in the data from NASA's NEOWISE mission to hunt space rocks... NASA is working to develop a follow-up space telescope that would use the same scientific approach to fulfill a mandate from the US Congress to discover nearly all of the space rocks that could pose a threat to Earth.
After 18 months of peer review, and plenty of acrimony on both sides, Myhrvold's latest critique appeared on 22 May on the website of the journal Icarus. Among other things, he argues that NEOWISE estimates of asteroid diameters should not be trusted -- a crucial challenge, because the size of an asteroid determines how much damage it would cause if it hit Earth. "These observations are the best we're going to have for a very long time," says Myhrvold. "And they weren't really analysed very well at all."
NASA hasn't responded in detail to Myhrvold's criticism, though a June 14th statement said their team "stands by its data and scientific findings," noting that they'd also been published in several peer-reviewed journals.
The good news? They're working on it. "If a real threat does arise, we are prepared to pull together the information about what options might work and provide that information to decision-makers," Lindley Johnson, NASA's Planetary Defense Officer, told reporters.
But NASA's methodology is now being criticized by former Microsoft CTO Nathan Myhrvold -- in the peer-reviewed journal Icarus. An anonymous reader quotes Scientific American: Since 2016, Nathan Myhrvold has argued that there are fatal flaws in the data from NASA's NEOWISE mission to hunt space rocks... NASA is working to develop a follow-up space telescope that would use the same scientific approach to fulfill a mandate from the US Congress to discover nearly all of the space rocks that could pose a threat to Earth.
After 18 months of peer review, and plenty of acrimony on both sides, Myhrvold's latest critique appeared on 22 May on the website of the journal Icarus. Among other things, he argues that NEOWISE estimates of asteroid diameters should not be trusted -- a crucial challenge, because the size of an asteroid determines how much damage it would cause if it hit Earth. "These observations are the best we're going to have for a very long time," says Myhrvold. "And they weren't really analysed very well at all."
NASA hasn't responded in detail to Myhrvold's criticism, though a June 14th statement said their team "stands by its data and scientific findings," noting that they'd also been published in several peer-reviewed journals.
Probably true. On the other hand, working toward a solution is probably better than saying "well, we can't stop one now, so no point in looking." It's not like a solution will be easier to come by if we wait till the last possible minute to start developing one....
"I do not agree with what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it"
... we're likely doomed. Plain and simple. We won the big lottery and we've had realive "asteroid peace" for a few million years now which had us evolve into quite smart apes but if some solid rock with a diameter of 1000+ meters comes at earth with 50000 kmh it's gonna hurt.
Given, if we'd prepare for this sort of event we'd quickly be in a position to prevent it. But since we - right now - can't even get it down to stop dumping crap into the oceans and poisining the atmossphere, I wouldn't bet on that happening anytime soon. As long as idiots are still caught up in little more than extended tribal wars humanity won't move to that position. I sure hope we survive long enough to make that happen, but some sceptisizm and paranoia is due IMHO.
If humanity does move on to becoming smart, we could also finally make a concerted effort to become a space faring civilisation. Maybe not beyond our solar system, but space faring none-the-less.
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
... that would take science and money.
Congress Critters would waste precious time arguing about which states get the contracts to build the "Asteroiderator Killer".
. . . and then we'd end up with 50 incompatible components built in 50 different states.
"Thanks for all the fish!"
Schroedinger's Brexit: The UK is both in and out of the EU at the same time!