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We May Be All Alone In the Known Universe, a New Oxford Study Suggests (fortune.com)
A new study by Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute determined that it's quite likely humans are alone in the observable universe. Fortune reports: The study looked at the Fermi paradox -- the apparent discrepancy between the seeming likelihood of alien life, given the billions of stars similar to our sun, and the scant evidence that such life actually exists. The paradox was named after physicist Enrico Fermi, who famously asked his colleagues at Los Alamos, N.M.. "Where Is Everyone?"
The study authors then examined various hypotheses and equations used to resolve the Fermi paradox. The results weren't pretty: "Our main result is to show that proper treatment of scientific uncertainties dissolves the Fermi paradox by showing that it is not at all unlikely ex ante for us to be alone in the Milky Way, or in the observable universe. Our second result is to show that, taking account of observational bounds on the prevalence of other civilizations, our updated probabilities suggest that there is a substantial probability that we are alone." SpaceX CEO Elon Musk cited the study's conclusions as an "added impetus" for humanity to become a spacefaring civilization capable of extending life beyond Earth. He tweeted: "This is why we must preserve the light of consciousness by becoming a spacefaring civilization & extending life to other planets..."
The study authors then examined various hypotheses and equations used to resolve the Fermi paradox. The results weren't pretty: "Our main result is to show that proper treatment of scientific uncertainties dissolves the Fermi paradox by showing that it is not at all unlikely ex ante for us to be alone in the Milky Way, or in the observable universe. Our second result is to show that, taking account of observational bounds on the prevalence of other civilizations, our updated probabilities suggest that there is a substantial probability that we are alone." SpaceX CEO Elon Musk cited the study's conclusions as an "added impetus" for humanity to become a spacefaring civilization capable of extending life beyond Earth. He tweeted: "This is why we must preserve the light of consciousness by becoming a spacefaring civilization & extending life to other planets..."
http://brighterbrains.org/arti...
Based on the exponential rate of technological development, I'm guessing the actual answer to where everyone might be is likely some variant of this hypothesis.
Regardless, Elon is right.. Mars. Stat.
..don't panic
I don't know, it's true that there are billions of billions of stars and planets, but thinking of the billions of billions ways how random atoms and molecules can combine, to obtain something that vaguely resembles life, i.e. starting replicating and self-organizing and all the rest, I think it's not so absurd to think that it could have happened only a very few times in all the universe.
"Keeping alive the light of consciousness and spreading if throughout the universe so that it won't die" seems to me for once like a religious imperative worth pursuing. It actually would keep people away from tribal bullshit and have us all work together.
Let's update our cults to that one. I'm all in for it. ... There is even the imperative to have and raise children in it - pretty much spot on a perfect upgrade to the abrahamic revelation cults if you ask me.
We suffer more in our imagination than in reality. - Seneca
[I disagree ] I think the galaxy is a life distributing system.
More than that. I believe there's a good possibility that a "universe" (there may be more than one, ours) exists for the sole purpose of creating intelligent life that matures and advances to the point they have the ability to move outside that universe and exist there. They then create another universe and the cycle repeats. It's how extra-dimensional beings/species/civilizations "reproduce", if you will. I mean, what else do you do when you're effectively a God or Gods able to create a freaking *universe* FFS? Play Euchre?
There may already have been intelligent species that achieved "Ascendancy" long ago and are no longer here for us to easily find through signs of activity. We may be the first or the last in a long line of intelligent species or just one of many in the middle of that series of intelligent species. We just haven't "grown up" sufficiently to learn "the facts of "Life" yet.
Whether or not we survive long enough as a species to find out...?
Strat
Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
In fairness, if we have the technology to effectively colonize Mars, then deflecting an "planet-killer" asteroid should be fairly trivial. And if we're able to travel between stars at even a few percentage of light speed, then it's probably easy enough to just keep moving the Earth further from the sun to maintain a pleasant environment - some size large ion drives on the moon, firing for several million years, should tow the Earth along just fine.
Of course, once you've done that it's not such a stretch to put some size-large lights on the moon as well, to illuminate the Earth in lieu of the sun, and head into interstellar space. With the aid of some mildly efficient mass-energy conversion the moon should provide plenty of power for the journey. The real question is, do all the terraformed planets head to the same star, or do we scatter in all directions?
--- Most topics have many sides worth arguing, allow me to take one opposite you.
Or, maybe even huge, spacefaring civilizations that have colonized the galaxy are hard to see. Maybe weâ(TM)re already inside one and weâ(TM)re leaving on a reserve of some kind. Off limits to everyone except anthropologists. Or maybe only half the galaxy is populated by star daring civilizations, and we arenâ(TM)t in that half.
Whatâ(TM)s interesting about the question is that it is one that can only be asked by people who are not in contact with a spacefaring alien civilization. We only ask, where is everyone, because we donâ(TM)t know. So maybe we are in special circumstances, but that doesnâ(TM)t mean that weâ(TM)re alone.
What this kind of argument always makes me think is that people who canâ(TM)t bear the thought of a kitten dying should never get good at math. Domestic Cats produce large litters and are fertile after a few months. Domestic cats have been around for at least four thousand years. For some reason, however, the earth is not covered in a thousand mile thick layer of cats. Of course, a thousand mile thick layer of cats is obviously ridiculous and unsustainable. So is being knee deep in cats. There is an equilibrium level of cats that is sustainable, however. Exactly what that level is depends on a lot of factors, some of them quite unpleasant for kitten-lovers. The point is, I donâ(TM)t see a cat right now. I could search the entire building I am in and I would not find a single cat. And if I could only remember back a few hours, and/or if my eyesight, hearing, etc. had dramatically improved since this morning I would have to conclude that cats are probably not real. Even though I have several cats in my home, and even if one had been sitting on my lap, purring this morning. And that is the way it goes with the search for intelligent life. Our civilization has not been looking for long (and, frankly, not very hard at all really) for life elsewhere in the universe and even if weâ(TM)d encoutered it directly, our historical records of anything like that from more than say 500 years ago would probably be useless (consider that the Romans were quite literate and kept lots of records, and we are still not really sure if, for example, Caligula actually existed).
Basically, until we get out there ourselves, we canâ(TM)t really conclude anything. Right now weâ(TM)re massaging the data we have (which is mostly an absence of data) into something that itâ(TM)s not. Sure, we know that there isnâ(TM)t an alien civilization slapping Dyson spheres around every nearby star in recent history because we would see the stars going out. On the other hand, if thousands of 100 km long starships weâ(TM)re traveling back and forth every day between every other star in the galaxy, they would be completely invisible to us. Ditto if itâ(TM)s much lighter traffic and much smaller ships. So, sure, we can rule out some levels of technology (at least nearby and recently), but we really havenâ(TM)t scratched the surface.