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DRAM Industry Likely To Face Oversupply in 2019 (digitimes.com)
While the global DRAM market still remains robust currently, the recent capacity ramps by Micron Technology and the planned kick-off of commercial production by China-based Fujian Jin Hua Integrated Circuit and Innotron Memory (previously known as Hefei ChangXin) could lead to oversupply for the memory in 2019, Taiwanese newspaper DigiTimes reported Thursday, citing industry sources. From the report: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix would be forced to overhaul their current profit-oriented business strategy as both firms believe that the booming memory market, which has continued for 2-3 years, is likely to be over by the end of 2018, according to a Korea-based Digital Times report. Although Samsung and SK Hynix both stated, at their latest investors conferences, respectively, that they will continue to ramp up capacities for memory chips, the aggressive moves by rival companies have made the two companies hesitate, said the report.
Samsung has seen its share in the DRAM market continue to dive after hitting a high of 50.2% in the third quarter of 2016 as rivals including Micron have jacked up their revenues and profits. Notably, Micron has ramped up its operating margin to as high as 50% so far in 2018 compared to 20% at the end of 2016. Additionally, Samsung saw its share in the market drop to 44.4% in the first quarter of 2018, while Micron managed to ramp up its share to 23.1%, according to IHS Markit. The global DRAM market is expected to reach a peak of US$104 billion in 2018, before contracting by 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, in 2019 and 2020, according to an industry estimate.
Samsung has seen its share in the DRAM market continue to dive after hitting a high of 50.2% in the third quarter of 2016 as rivals including Micron have jacked up their revenues and profits. Notably, Micron has ramped up its operating margin to as high as 50% so far in 2018 compared to 20% at the end of 2016. Additionally, Samsung saw its share in the market drop to 44.4% in the first quarter of 2018, while Micron managed to ramp up its share to 23.1%, according to IHS Markit. The global DRAM market is expected to reach a peak of US$104 billion in 2018, before contracting by 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively, in 2019 and 2020, according to an industry estimate.
This El Reg article gives a good overview of just how messy the development of this PRC production capacity has been. They of course stole a lot of tech, in particular from Micron through UMC, and have added lawfare to the mix, a dubious lawsuit claiming patent infringement, and what I would guess is a much less dubious anti-trust price fixing action.
No doubt they expected Hillary to be President by the time this capacity came on-line, they'd owned the Clintons since Bill was governor of Arkansas and needed a bailout when the political machine he joined got a bit too greedy in raiding a state pension fund. Instead they got Trump, who's upping tarriffs to cover $200 billion worth of Chinese imports within 45 days, with a promised $500 billion to follow if they don't change their tune. Going to get ugly....