Automation: The Exaggerated Threat of Robots (flassbeck-economics.com)

It will take quite a lot of time before robots become cheaper than workers in emerging markets such as Africa, argues Nico Beckert of Flassbeck Economics, a consortium of researchers who aim to provide economics insights with a more realistic basis. From the post: All industrialized countries used low-cost labour to build industries and manufacture mass-produced goods. Today, labour is relatively inexpensive in Africa, and a similar industrialization process might take off accordingly. Some worry that industrial robots will block this development path. The reason is that robots are most useful when doing routine tasks -- precisely the kind of work that is typical of labour-intensive mass production. At the moment, however, robots are much too expensive to replace thousands upon thousands of workers in labour-intensive industries, most of which are in the very early stages of the industrialization process. Robots are currently best used in technologically more demanding fields like the automobile or electronics industry.

Even a rapid drop in robot prices would not lead to the replacement of workers by robots in the short term in Africa where countries lag far behind in terms of fast internet and other information and communications technologies. They also lack well-trained IT experts. Other problems include an unreliable power supply, high energy costs and high financing costs for new technologies. For these reasons, it would be difficult and expensive to integrate robots and other digital technologies into African production lines.

Comments

Re:What kind of premise is this?

[vtcodger]

"The jobs which aren't highly automated will continue to go overseas, and they will go to Africa"

I can think of jobs that aren't easily automatable. But few of them seem candidates for shipping off the Africa. For example, picking apples can't currently be done by machines because the fruit bruises easily, and picking has to be done without damaging next year's buds. But shipping the whole tree off to the DRC to be plucked seems somewhat impractical.

I'd sure like to see a list of specific industries that will be moving to Ghana, Liberia, Uganda, et.al.to take advantage of the cheap labor. And why not move work to Afghanistan or Mongolia? which have (on paper anyway) easy access to existing trade infrastructure. It's not like running rail lines from the existing Eurasian rail network requires new technology.

Re:So what?

[Anonymous Coward]

Africans probably know that there is a good chance that most of the remaining human-based manufacturing jobs will end up in Africa, which is a situation all major corporations in a position to care are working towards.

Which is also the reason anti-globalism and protectionist policies are becoming more prevalent in modern politics. No one, except the corporations wanting to profit, wants to have their standard of living dragged down to whatever the poorest and most corrupt nations on earth will allow. Note, I'm referring to any nation here not just the ones in Africa. After all, when Africa has all of the jobs, what will other desperate for income nations do? Try to out bid them, by being even worse off and demanding even less in remittance than they are.

To anyone who says that automation isn't a threat, I have this to say to you. Yes, previous technology advances that caused upheavals created new jobs to take their place. What's different this time however, is the technology we're making now can do those new jobs as well, as well as any new job we might make in the future. Previously, the technology advancements were limited to specific tasks. The tech we are working on now eliminates the restrictions while significantly lowering the cost of using them when compared to the cost of a human doing the exact same task.

To put it bluntly, as a capitalist business owner would you: A. Pay a bunch of humans to do every task you needed done, have to give them breaks, maintain safe working conditions, worry about them demanding pay raises, or bunching together and forming a union, pay for their healthcare (in the US anyway), train them, etc. OR B. Would you prefer to buy a bunch of literal worker drones that never need to sleep, never complain, always do what their told, have no rights to worry about, do not have to be paid anything, and only need the electricity and occasional maintenance (which they themselves can perform)? If you said anything other than "B!B!B!B!B!B!B!B!" Then congratulations, you're not a complete asshole hellbent on dragging society into the gutter for your own selfish gain. You're also not a real capitalist, because that's what capitalism dictates must be done. To buy for the lowest price and sell for the highest price means using the cheapest labor available to you to get those expensive products and services to customers. If that means using robots and bankrupting entire countries so what? It's not your problem according to capitalism.

If you still have a disbelief about automation after I've said that, then you live in denial. Given enough time that's what will happen unless something is done to prevent it, and that's what we're seeing play out right now. We had better hope the protectionists win too otherwise, 99.987% of the world's population are going to be living in hellholes.

Africa is a diverse continent of ~55 countries

[Paul Fernhout]

So, sure, one may find specific combinations of infrastructure somewhere. For example:
https://sourcingjournal.com/to...
""The next China is not a where, it's a how you do business," he said. "But Africa seems to be the emergence of the next China." Africa today is much like China was in the late 80s and early 90s, McRaith explained. There's little there, but the continent is developing. The first thing to consider, however, McRaith said, is that the sizable continent cannot be discussed as one region and understood as such. Africa is big enough to fit all of the world's major players within it: the United States, China, India, Eastern Europe, Japan, the U.K., Spain, France, Germany and Italy, among others. "Africa is of a scale we've never dealt with," he said."

But it may be harder than you suggest. For your example of Nairobi, consider electrical infrastructure:
http://www.afd.fr/en/reliabili...
"The poor performance of Kenya's energy sector hampers the country's economic development and poverty reduction strategy: per capita electricity consumption is low, the country suffers relatively frequent power cuts, and small proportion of the population has access to electricity, while the average tariff in the last five years was $0.15 per kilowatt hour, one of the highest in sub-Saharan Africa."

And:
https://medium.com/@kyleschutt...
"You will be robbed in Nairobi, inevitably. No one really talks about it because it is a bit awkward, but it should be discussed. You should know what to do. Except for my sister, everyone I know in Nairobi has been robbed, especially if they own a business. After all, the city's nickname is Nairobbery. ..."

And:
https://travel.state.gov/conte...
"Terrorist threats remain in Kenya, including those aimed at U.S., Western, and Kenyan interests, within the Nairobi area, along the coast, and within the northeastern region of the country. Terrorist attacks have cumulatively resulted in the death and injury of hundreds of people since 2011. Over the last year, most incidents have occurred in the northeastern border region of the country; there have been no major attacks in Nairobi, Mombasa, or other major cities in the last two years. ...
CRIME: Crime in Kenya is a regular occurrence and Kenyan authorities have limited capacity to deter and investigate such acts. Violent and sometimes fatal criminal attacks, including home invasions, burglaries, armed carjackings, muggings, and kidnappings can occur at any time. ..."

Can large businesses set up generators (or locate near cheap hydropower perhaps), hire private security (ignoring some of those thefts mentioned were inside jobs), build gated compounds for executives and their families, and so on? Of course, but it all adds to the costs and risks of doing business.

Work ethic is a complex topic -- and note I said "hierarchical" work ethic, meaning people's willingness to submit to a big corporation versus their desire to work for themselves and/or their family, village, or tribe. One study from 2011 comparing Chinese and South African work ethic:
https://www.emeraldinsight.com...
"South Africa is a developing country, and within this context, it is essential to be economically competitive and proactive. Various sources reveal that the national productivity has been traditionally low, and continues to remain low. Within the context of the international arena, this is unacceptable. If South Africa is to become a recognised role player in the internationa