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100 Years Ago, Influenza Killed 50 Million People. Could It Happen Again? (usatoday.com)
Last year 80,000 Americans died of the flu -- and 900,000 more were hospitalized, according to estimates by the U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention. NBC News reports:
The numbers were shocking. Until now, CDC has said flu kills anywhere between 12,000 and 56,000 people a year, depending on how bad the flu season is, and that it puts between 250,000 and 700,000 into the hospital with serious illness. The numbers for the 2017-2018 flu season go far beyond that... Usually, flu hits first in one region and then another, but this past season saw widespread flu activity all at once, for weeks on end.
Coincidentally, it's the 100-year anniversary of the great flu pandemic of 1918, according to an article shared by schwit1: Up to 500 million people -- about one-third of the world's population -- became infected with the influenza virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says. As many as 50 million died, or one out of every 30 human beings on the planet, killing more American troops than those that died on World War I battlefields. The intensity and speed with which it struck were almost unimaginable, the worst global pandemic in modern history.
The article asks the ultimate question: Could it happen again? Top health and science groups, such as the World Health Organization, the National Academy of Sciences and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, predict influenza pandemics are nearly certain to recur. "Influenza viruses, with the vast silent reservoir in aquatic birds, are impossible to eradicate," the World Health Organization warned. "With the growth of global travel, a pandemic can spread rapidly globally with little time to prepare a public health response." A pandemic could also arise if a strain mutates with or develops directly from animal flu viruses, the CDC said...
In a near worst-case scenario, a new, lethal and highly infectious flu virus would break out in a crowded, unprepared megacity that lacks public health infrastructure, according to Johns Hopkins' Bloomberg School of Public Heath. Such a fast-moving virus could burst from a city and catch a ride with international travelers before public health officials realize what is happening.
The article points out that today there's now safeguards to detect and counteract influenza outbreaks that didn't exist in 1918 (including outbreak-detecting systems, as well as better antiviral drugs and the ability to develop vaccines more rapidly). But it also reminds us that the 1918 flu pandemic killed more people in two years than the plague did in an entire century.
The CDC recommends that every year, anyone six months of age or older should get a flu vaccine. But I'd be curious to hear from Slashdot's readers. Have you gotten your 2018 flu shot?
Coincidentally, it's the 100-year anniversary of the great flu pandemic of 1918, according to an article shared by schwit1: Up to 500 million people -- about one-third of the world's population -- became infected with the influenza virus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says. As many as 50 million died, or one out of every 30 human beings on the planet, killing more American troops than those that died on World War I battlefields. The intensity and speed with which it struck were almost unimaginable, the worst global pandemic in modern history.
The article asks the ultimate question: Could it happen again? Top health and science groups, such as the World Health Organization, the National Academy of Sciences and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, predict influenza pandemics are nearly certain to recur. "Influenza viruses, with the vast silent reservoir in aquatic birds, are impossible to eradicate," the World Health Organization warned. "With the growth of global travel, a pandemic can spread rapidly globally with little time to prepare a public health response." A pandemic could also arise if a strain mutates with or develops directly from animal flu viruses, the CDC said...
In a near worst-case scenario, a new, lethal and highly infectious flu virus would break out in a crowded, unprepared megacity that lacks public health infrastructure, according to Johns Hopkins' Bloomberg School of Public Heath. Such a fast-moving virus could burst from a city and catch a ride with international travelers before public health officials realize what is happening.
The article points out that today there's now safeguards to detect and counteract influenza outbreaks that didn't exist in 1918 (including outbreak-detecting systems, as well as better antiviral drugs and the ability to develop vaccines more rapidly). But it also reminds us that the 1918 flu pandemic killed more people in two years than the plague did in an entire century.
The CDC recommends that every year, anyone six months of age or older should get a flu vaccine. But I'd be curious to hear from Slashdot's readers. Have you gotten your 2018 flu shot?
For something like the flu, I don't think there's much that can be done. A huge chunk of the population gets it every single year and you can't really vaccinate against it effectively, so if it's a particularly deadly strain it's going to kill a lot of people. It doesn't matter how good of a healthcare system you have, or what kind of coordinated response you think you have in place, because it will get overwhelmed.
About the only thing that can be done is to devise some way of treating viral infections or shutting them down, Basically something like antibiotics that can take out the virus or destroy enough of it to prevent people from getting ill to the point that it becomes fatal.
For something like the flu, I don't think there's much that can be done. A huge chunk of the population gets it every single year and you can't really vaccinate against it effectively, so if it's a particularly deadly strain it's going to kill a lot of people.
I disagree with the first and agree with your second. After my first decade of life, I started getting serious lung infections and they came every two to four years. Usually it was some form of pneumonia and as a secondary infection from a simple cold or flu. It became a recurring fact of life. I would get sick several times a year, and sometimes it would bloom out into a lung infection. I used the stupid simple antibiotics (eg, amoxicillin) and even the "advanced" ones (azithromycin) but not much changed.
Leaving out detail here, I gave up sugar. And then I went low carb. And I do not get the flu or cold ever. EVER! I do take aspirin and/or small doses of prednisone for back pain, but that is all I take. And I never get sick any more. This is just one data point; use it any way you wish.
A dingo ate my sig...
There's a very, VERY sensitive tipping point when it comes to infections spreading or not. It's very close math. You know what countries have very few problems with flu outbreaks? The ones where it's illegal to go to work with the flu.
had the flu last year and felt like i was going to die. does that count?
Scott
It has gotten much better, but at the same time, resources are limited. During last year's flu season, the largest local hospital here had to bring in a mobile ER unit meant for disaster relief to handle overflow. It's not hard to imagine resources being completely overwhelmed if we get much worse one year.
Flu spreads by droplets that are coughed or sneezed out. If you don't have coughing or sneezing symptoms, you aren't going to be an effective vector.
Until you kiss your spouse. Or forget to wash your hands before touching produce at the market. There are still plenty of ways to spread the flu - any only one of them needs to work in order to create a new, effective vector.
The Spanish Flu caused a cytokine storm. Basically caused your immune system to overreact, and kill yourself. Consequently, people with strong immune systems - fit and healthy young adults - were the most likely to die from it. Contrast this to modern examples of the flu which mostly picks off children and the elderly.
If the population today is generally healthier than in 1918, something like the Spanish Flu would be even more deadly today than it was then. (Though to be fair, we don't have a World War going on forcing people into tight quarters and to move around the world, spreading the virus.)
Stop lying when lives are at stake. Medical professionals in the US are required to get the flu shots. It's not true only a small amount of them get it - 100% gets it
Sorry, but I'm not the one spreading lies. The vaccination rate among medical professionals in the US is high but well short of 100% according to this article. Furthermore when not mandated the article states that the rate drops to 45%.
In Canada it seems the rates have increased somewhat in recent years but still around half do not get vaccinated as this, very pro-flu vaccine article states. In BC making it mandatory has increased rates of vaccination to 80% but that's avoiding the point.
If the only way you can get medical professionals to have flu vaccinations is to force them to it raises very serious questions about how medically valuable this vaccination is. Trying to cast doctors as uncaring, as the Alberta article does, has not been my experience, Generally, they seem to just disagree that the shots are worth it due to the rapid-evolving, unpredictable nature of the virus. The recommendation I have always received is that when you get elderly it is worth it but for a normal, healthy adult the benefit is minimal.