For Now, at Least, the World Isn't Making Enough Batteries (bloomberg.com)

An anonymous reader shares a report: Evidence of the battery-powered era is all around us. Electric vehicles are cruising down our freeways. Household appliances thrum with stored solar energy that was until recently a daytime-only power source. Governments from California to China and South Korea -- even Donald Trump's Washington -- have taken steps that will make battery power more ubiquitous. There's just one hitch to this battery boom: The world isn't making nearly enough. All of the new demand from North America, Europe and Asia is constrained at the moment by a market that remains heavily dependent on a few producers. Data on the global supply of batteries is hard to come by, but close observers of the industry have noticed evidence of the shortfall. "We've never seen such demand," said Yayoi Sekine, a New York-based analyst at Bloomberg NEF. "But the supply is struggling to keep up."

Oddly, however, lithium-ion battery-rack prices have continued their annual decline, even in the face of constrained supply and expectations of ever-growing demand. To get a clear sense of the near future, consider battery-powered cars: Today, there are more than 3 million electric vehicles on the road worldwide; by 2025, Volkswagen AG alone plans to build as many as 3 million electric vehicles per year. Those vehicle batteries -- in addition to storage batteries for homes, businesses and utilities -- will have to come from somewhere.

Comments

No. It is not making enough *cheap* batteries

[140Mandak262Jamuna]

The demand for batteries is not some fixed quantity irrespective of price.

At 130$ /kWh there is demand for 300,000 units of 75 kWh batteris, may be a little more or little less. Model 3

At 160$ /kWh there is demand for just 25,000 units, (Bolt)

At 200$ /kWh there is demand for just 0 batteries. no one would buy it at that price

At 100$/kWh there will be demand for about 3 million units of 75 kWh a year. Tesla's projection of breakeven price between BEV and ICEV

At 80$/kWh there will be demand for something like 30 million units of 75 kWh battery packs a year or even more.

At 50$ /kWh the whole world will run solar and wind. We can store two or three days electricity usage of the whole world at affordable prices.

Moore' Law for batteries, is a 7 year half life. Energy density doubles and price halves every seven years for battery packs. Right now Tesla is at 130$ /kWh. In 7 years it will be at 65$/kWh. In 14 years, @ 32$ /kWh we are possibly looking at the greatest disruption the energy sector has seen since the switch from whale oil to coal, from coal to petroleum.