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Asteroid Strikes 'Increase Threefold Over Last 300 Million Years,' Survey Finds (theguardian.com)

According to a survey of asteroid craters at least 6.2 miles wide, the number of asteroids slamming into Earth has nearly tripled since the dinosaurs first roamed. "Researchers worked out the rate of asteroid strikes on the moon and the Earth and found that in the past 290 million years the number of collisions had increased dramatically," reports The Guardian. "Before that time, the planet suffered an asteroid strike about once every 3 million years, but since then the rate has risen to once nearly every 1 million years." From the report: The findings suggest that the dinosaurs may have been unfortunate in evolving 240 million years ago, just as the odds of being wiped out by a stray asteroid were ramping up. It was one of those impacts, on top of other factors, that did for the beasts 66 million years ago. Many scientists had assumed that asteroid strikes were a rare but constant threat in Earth's deep history, but the latest study challenges that belief.

Writing in the journal Science, the researchers describe how they turned to the moon to examine the violent history of Earth. The Earth and moon are hit by asteroids with similar frequency, but impact craters on Earth are often erased or obscured by erosion and the shifting continents which churn up the crust. On the geologically inactive moon, impact craters are preserved almost indefinitely, making them easier to examine. Using images from Nasa's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, the scientists studied the "rockiness" of the debris surrounding craters on the moon. Rocks thrown up by asteroid impacts are steadily ground down by the constant rain of micrometeorites that pours down on the moon. This means the state of the rocks around a crater can be used to date it. The dates revealed that the moon, and by extension the Earth, has suffered more intense asteroid bombardment in the past 290 million years than at any time in the previous billion. On Earth there are hardly any impact craters older than 650 million years, most likely because they were eroded when the planet became encased in ice in an event known as Snowball Earth.

9 of 80 comments (clear)

  1. oort cloud by Rockoon · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Seems to me that the cloud of debris that surrounds our solar system (and likely most others as well) would be unstable as stars pass by each other.

    --
    "His name was James Damore."
    1. Re:oort cloud by Roger+W+Moore · · Score: 2

      That does not explain the rate suddenly increasing 300 million years ago. If anything the rate of random disturbances should decrease steadily over time as rocks are pushed into the inner solar system removing them from the belt.

      Their working theory is a collision in the asteroid belt 300 million years ago which suddenly caused a large increase in the number of rocks available to impact. If true though then presumably the same sudden increase in rate should be visible on other planets too.

  2. Constant? by Paul+Neubauer · · Score: 4, Interesting

    How do we *know* the rate of micrometeorite bombardment is constant and hasn't dropped in intensity by a third in recent (geological/selenological) times?

    --
    I don't subscribe to RMS's GNUtopian vision.
    1. Re:Constant? by Tablizer · · Score: 2

      It's possible two (formerly) big asteroids collided fairly recently, creating a lot of debris.

  3. Or maybe... by jrumney · · Score: 2

    Evidence of 300 million year old asteroid craters is many times more likely to have been destroyed. Other scientific papers have pointed to a much more chaotic solar system earlier in its history, so the trend may in fact be in the opposite direction, just the evidence no longer exists.

    1. Re:Or maybe... by q_e_t · · Score: 2

      You don't think the rate of destruction of old craters might have been taken into account?

    2. Re:Or maybe... by olsmeister · · Score: 5, Informative

      The new thing this study did was use the moon as a proxy for Earth. The moon does not have weathering or plate tectonics so it's much easier to obtain data on older impacts and you can use the way the craters overlay each other to determine which are older and which are newer.

    3. Re:Or maybe... by drinkypoo · · Score: 2

      That tells us the relative ages of the craters on the moon, but not their ages...

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  4. Re:To solve the problem.. by scsirob · · Score: 2, Funny

    No, no, no. You have the culprit right, but the fix is clearly higher taxes. That's one of the three universal fixes:
    1. If it's stuck and has to move: WD-40
    2. If it moves and needs to be fixed: Ductape
    3. If it has the word 'climate' in it: Tax!

    --
    To Terminate, or not to Terminate, that's the question - SCSIROB