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How Arthur C. Clarke Predicted We'd Communicate in the 21st Century (paleotronic.com)
beaverdownunder quotes Paleotronic:
While researching for our magazine we sometimes find nuggets buried by time that have been forgotten by the Internet. This particular nugget was found in the May 1977 issue of Creative Computing. Science fiction author and futurist Arthur C. Clarke's predictions of the future are fascinating, both for what he got right, and what he got wrong.
Quoting Arthur C. Clarke: [W]hat about verbal inputs? Do we really need a keyboard? I'm sure the answer is "Yes." We want to be able to type out messages, look at them, and edit them before transmission. We need keyboard inputs for privacy, and quietness. A reliable voice recognition system, capable of coping with accents, hangovers, ill-fitting dentures and the "human error" that my late friend HAL, the computer from 2001, complained about, represents something many orders of magnitude more complex than a simple alpha-numeric keyboard. It would be a device with capabilities, in a limited area, at least as good as those of a human brain. Yet assuming that the curves of the last few decades can be extrapolated, this will certainly be available sometime in the next century....
Noting that he coined the phrase "Don't commute -- communicate!" Clark adds "We are already approaching the point when it will be feasible -- not necessarily desirable -- for those engaged in what is quaintly called "white-collar" jobs to do perhaps 95 per cent of their work without leaving home. Of course, few of today's families could survive this, but for the moment let's confine ourselves to electronic, not social, technology."
But he wasn't excited about the possibility of telepathy in the future. "I find that my mental processes are so incoherent...that I should be very sorry for anyone at the receiving end."
Quoting Arthur C. Clarke: [W]hat about verbal inputs? Do we really need a keyboard? I'm sure the answer is "Yes." We want to be able to type out messages, look at them, and edit them before transmission. We need keyboard inputs for privacy, and quietness. A reliable voice recognition system, capable of coping with accents, hangovers, ill-fitting dentures and the "human error" that my late friend HAL, the computer from 2001, complained about, represents something many orders of magnitude more complex than a simple alpha-numeric keyboard. It would be a device with capabilities, in a limited area, at least as good as those of a human brain. Yet assuming that the curves of the last few decades can be extrapolated, this will certainly be available sometime in the next century....
Noting that he coined the phrase "Don't commute -- communicate!" Clark adds "We are already approaching the point when it will be feasible -- not necessarily desirable -- for those engaged in what is quaintly called "white-collar" jobs to do perhaps 95 per cent of their work without leaving home. Of course, few of today's families could survive this, but for the moment let's confine ourselves to electronic, not social, technology."
But he wasn't excited about the possibility of telepathy in the future. "I find that my mental processes are so incoherent...that I should be very sorry for anyone at the receiving end."
Written, time-delayed communication is as old as human civilization. The typewriter, end hence the keyboard is just a final improvement. Same for real-time voice communication, where the final improvement was to be able to do it over large distances. Seriously, it does take zero "vision" for such a prediction, just seeing what is is quite enough. And we will stay with these interface types, because they are what works.
Most ACs are not even worth the keystrokes to insult them. Be generically insulted by this and ignored otherwise.
People predict a lot of things.
Arthur C. Clarke was far better at predicting than most people, especially about the future.
Some things he predicted:
1. Malware
2. Tablets
3. GEO comm sats
4. Skype/Facetime
5. Networked home computers
6. Email
7. Mobile phones
8. Telecommuting
Where's that orbiting space wheel?
A space wheel is a good design. It is not Arthur's fault that we haven't built it yet.
If you're trying to write code, or anything longer than a text message, you definitely still want to use a keyboard. Voice recognition has come a long way, but it's still a far cry less accurate than typing.
Clarke predicted stuff long before 1977. He was the first to suggest using artificial satellites in geostationary orbit as communication relays, way back in 1945.
No moving parts? I had one of those as a kid. It was a great Teddy Bear. I miss it dearly...
In the 21st century, calls will be far more efficient because rotary phones will spin twice as fast. Computers will be so small they will fit in an ordinary two-car garage. You will be able to make calls from anywhere because there will be a phone booth on every street corner. High speed miniature printing presses in every home will make it possible to receive a book in a matter of days rather than 4 to 6 weeks. Low cost air conditioning will make it possible to have a cooling room in every neighborhood.