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2018 Was the 'Worst Year Ever' For Smartphone Shipments (cnbc.com)
2018 was the worst year ever for smartphone shipments, according to the latest figures from research firm IDC. It means Apple isn't the only company fighting to keep people interested in buying new phones every year. From a report: IDC said 1.4 billion smartphones were sold in 2018, marking a 4.1 percent decline for the year in an industry that's accustomed to rapid growth. In 2014, as well, 1.4 billion phones were shipped, which means the industry seems to have regressed about 5 years. Shipments shrank 4.9 percent for the fourth quarter of 2018, IDC said. Apple said earlier this week that iPhone revenues were 15 percent lower than last year. CEO Tim Cook said the strengthened dollar, an economic slowdown in China, lower subsidies on phones and its battery replacement program contributed to the drop in sales. Samsung phone shipments declined 5.5 percent and Apple's slipped 11.5 percent during the quarter, IDC said. But Huawei, which was able to capitalize on China, saw a 33.6 percent bump in shipments. Chinese vendors Oppo and Xiaomi also increased shipments, IDC said.
This is how Android's problematic security updates will become a real problem. People will now keep old unpatched Android devices for longer, so all it will take is one golden exploit (think of Stagefright but self-propagating like MS Blaster of old) to bring down the Android ecosystem. Because most devices in the ecosystem are unpatchable.
Most people use their phones for messaging, calling people and scrolling through websites or looking up information. That can be done well on even the cheapest modern phones. I think a lot of people are addicted to their phones, but there's not this need to have the latest and greatest anymore as long as the apps run ok.
When people only buy phones for replacement and do not increase the frequency of buying new phones nor do new customers appear on the scene, you have a stagnating market. Stagnating markets != growing market => economists get in panic, as growth is required for capitalism (in its present form). That is the concept the post you are answering to is refering to.
Capitalism does not require growth. Bullshit expectations of increased profit revenue requires growth.
Look, I get by on X Euro every year. If I don't increase my profits every year...my god, think of the consequences to the capitalism!
I don't know why everyone is brainwashed into thinking capitalism = unstopped growth and socialism = stalin.... a little of both with expectations of peace and happiness instead of growth and war would make a big difference towards unchecked carbon release.
Of course that's what various hippies since Jesus have been saying, so who gives a shit. The smart phone market is drying up! Fire the lowest paid employees and drive the stock back up!
1.4 billion?? Think about that as a percentage of the world's population. Holy carp.
And that's vs. the whole world population. What fraction of that group is actually the market for what is essentially as luxury consumer product?
This has to be one of the most amazingly successful luxury items of all time.
What should astonish is that it was ever more successful.
My company calls em "Scamsung" phones. Ordered a bunch of them and within a week had several users with broken screens, not being able to take the battery out to reset the phone, etc. It was CUTE when they removed the bezel and needlessly made a paper thin glass back. We had a few users destroy the backs by trying to remove them as they used to be able to do. There is NO EXCUSE for making the back glass. Only a true fool would accept the fake arguments made by these jokers.
However, capitalism requires growth
People keep saying this as if it were self evident, but it's just nonsense. Capitalism tends to create and encourage growth, but there's nothing about it which requires growth.
No, but they never went away. Tech businesses have no concept of what a mature market looks like. I bet Coke doesn't see massive sales growth year over year. At best they see growth in line with population growth. It took microcomputers around 30 years to hit that mark. It only took smartphones 10. The market isn't dead. It's just that we have hit a point where the market has reached sustainable saturation while at the same time the products have developed to be good enough. Early on each new model was objectively better over the last and provided a real tangible benefit. Now they don't. If anything they are worse in a lot of ways. At least in terms of what consumers actually want and what OEMs are willing to offer.
There will always be an enthusiast niche who will jump for the latest and greatest, just like with PCs. But they will be small. And I think since the smartphone and mobile devices in general are designed as accessory devices, and not your primary computer, the niche will be small. But for the vast majority of the population they will only be replacing their smartphones through attrition from here on out. The world is not coming to an end and the smartphone isn't dead. It's just mature. And for some reason the tech industry can't wrap its head around the concept of a product segment ever being in a phase of growth or death. There is no middle ground.
I have a two year old phone as well. Even more ironic, it has a nice feature that the newer iPhones don't... the fingerprint scanner.
Why spend all that cash for a relatively throwaway item? All buying a new phone does is make the phone makers richer. In previous years where there were actual improvements with devices, like higher IPS displays, fingerprint scanners, faster Wi-Fi and cellular speeds, it made sense to go with a newer phone. However, it will be years before "5G" gets rolled out, and there isn't much the latest iPhone 10xspro-platinum can do that an earlier iPhone can't, other than bouncy poop icons, and a little bit better camera footage.
Phone makers have failed to understand something: The economy is tightening. People are starting to make sure their job is secure, that they can cover next month's rent, and meet basic needs, should they get laid off. The last thing people are caring about is a new phone, especially when companies are starting to do mass layoffs.
Want to make a phone that sells? Make a decent midrange phone. Focus on VWs, not Maybachs. People will buy phones, but they are not going to throw $1500 at a new device in this economy. Perhaps make phones with user replacable batteries and other accessories, because people will buy new batteries, but not phones, especially if the economy gets worse.
As someone that recently ended up with an iPhone XR (I was intending to stay with my 7 for a couple more years, but circumstances gave me this new phone) I have to say that FaceID is an under-appreciated feature.
Some people have trouble with it, and that's a bummer, but I've never had any issue. It works at surprising angles and it's more convenient for me as a person that finds that he has gloves on or dirty/wet hands a surprising amount of the time. My phone never feels locked to me anymore. When I go back to my TouchID iPad, it feels broken. I wait for the hidden notifications to pop into view, and it takes me a moment to context switch and put my thumb on the fingerprint reader. My phone literally just beeped as I was writing this, and I leaned forward slightly and it unlocked while I was typing on my PC.
Is it worth the aesthetic tradeoffs or price? I can't answer that for you, but this is a seriously impressive bit of technology. My phone never feels locked anymore, just ready to go. When I need to fill in a password, I just keep looking at my phone and my password manager handles the rest.
I know it's a small thing to put your finger on a special fingerprint scanner in the grand scheme of things, but I honestly never want to go back.