Slashdot Mirror

← Back to Stories (view on slashdot.org)

Tesla Model 3 Becomes Best Selling Electric Car In World (cleantechnica.com)

Posted by BeauHD on from the number-crunching dept.

Jose Pontes of EV Volumes and CleanTechnica has crunched some numbers and found that the Tesla Model 3 is now the best selling plug-in vehicle in the world. "In fact, the Model 3 was approximately 55,000 sales above the #2 BAIC EC-Series, an extremely popular Chinese model," CleanTechnica reports. "The Model 3 gobbled 7% of the plug-in vehicle market, while the #2 EC-Series and #3 Nissan LEAF each had 4%." From the report: After those top three, as the chart shows, the Tesla Model S and Model X were #4 and #5, respectively. They were followed by three Chinese models and then the Toyota Prius Prime and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. The Model 3 (and others) helped push the world plug-in vehicle share up to 2.1% in 2018. (Double that 4 times and we're at about 30% market share.) [...] Remember, 93% of plug-in vehicle sales in 2018 were not Model 3 sales. Nearly 2 million non -- Model 3 electric cars, SUVs, and crossovers made it into consumers' parking spots. Still, there's clearly a new king of the hill, and its young Tesla's 4th model.

29 of 164 comments (clear)

  1. Not surprised by Geoffrey.landis · · Score: 2

    I'm not surprised that the Tesla model 3 is the best selling electric car; I'd be surprised if it wasn't.

    Like many things, it does seem likely that a lower-cost mass produced competitor is likely, in the long run, to take the lead, though.

    --
    http://www.geoffreylandis.com
    1. Re:Not surprised by Rei · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The issue is that you don't just need a lower sale price; you also need a lower production cost. One intuitively expects these two to correlate, but at low volumes, they don't; so long as EVs are a small percentage of a manufacturer's sales, pricing is more dictated by factors such as legal compliance, trying to establish a place in the market, and maturing one's designs.

      As it stands, EV profitability varies greatly between manufacturers.

      The primary problem is that your base costs - batteries - are high, but your incremental costs - such as motor power - are low. A Model 3 drive unit, for example, was estimated by Munro & Associates to cost $754 - yet just the catalytic converter alone on a Prius costs more than double that. So, whether you're making some slow, plodding, econobox EV, or some lightning-speed entry-level luxury EV, the differences in production cost aren't that great. The exact same situation applies to China - battery cells are traded globally, and Chinese EV makers face the exact same challenges in making their battery packs affordable. Sure, they can cut costs on the rest of the vehicle - but you're still stuck with needing an expensive battery pack (or selling cars with poor range and charge speeds).

      Thankfully, battery prices have been falling like a stone. So this situation keeps improving every year.

      --
      Anchor: "We take you now to our Chief Meteorologist, Paris Hilton." Paris: "It's hot." Anchor: "Thank you."
    2. Re:Not surprised by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 2
      Kia Kona will have limited production, to be available only in CA.

      Tesla is making gross margin on the car 20% or so on the higher end cars with average sale price above 50K. It does not have costs down to 30K to sell 35K model 3 with profits. Estimates are, the short range model will cost 28K to make at the volume of half a million a year. Tesla is still struggling to make 350 K a year consistently in Fremont.

      Shorts have succeeded in cutting Tesla access to capital. So it is trying to fully fund the ramp up to 10K cars a week using existing sales and revenue, it is going to be slow. But it will get there.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    3. Re:Not surprised by thegarbz · · Score: 2

      You don't do yourself any favours by calling cars like the iPace a "compliance car".

      You don't do yourself any favours by claiming other people said something which they didn't.

      Wait let me check, .. switch to browsing at -1.... yep AmiMoJo is the only person who used "iPace" and "compliance car" in the discussion. Why would you do that? The iPace is not a compliance car. Shame on you AmiMoJo for saying it is, and double shame on you for pretending your opinion is that of someone else's.

  2. Wasn't Tesla supposed to be bankrupt by now? by Brannon · · Score: 3, Interesting

    ---

    gotta watch the conditionals, folks (Score:3, Insightful)
    by argStyopa ( 232550 ) Alter Relationship on Thursday April 07, 2016 @06:35PM (#51864323) Journal
    "...If it sells every car that's been reserved..."

    I'm going to call it here, that less than 100,000 - maybe even less than 50k - actually turn into real orders.

    --
    -Styopa

  3. What you want... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    ...is a golf cart.

    1. Re:What you want... by Hodr · · Score: 2

      Golf carts with NHTSA safety standards compliance.

  4. Re:I'll wait on the Chinese by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Very sensible attitude. You will not be disappointed when you get an electric car at the price you are comfortable with, be it Tesla or not.

    Among the early adopters a vast majority are also the same sensible people, knowingly and willingly paying way over their normal price range for the model 3. The most common models traded in for the model 3 were Camrys, priuses and accords. My own comfort price range is 25K, and I paid 55K way beyond my comfort zone. I had heard numerous owners say the same thing.

    As the prices fall, you might be tempted to stretch your price range too, it has that kind of effect, once you test drive one.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  5. Re:Need a cheap no fills model by Rei · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I agree with the AC above - what you want is a used Leaf.

    --
    Anchor: "We take you now to our Chief Meteorologist, Paris Hilton." Paris: "It's hot." Anchor: "Thank you."
  6. Re:I'll wait on the Chinese by Rei · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Interestingly enough, this story was posted right as the first delivery of Model 3s to China is arriving in Tianjin. :) Also the second shipment to Europe will also arrive at Zeebrugge shortly.

    --
    Anchor: "We take you now to our Chief Meteorologist, Paris Hilton." Paris: "It's hot." Anchor: "Thank you."
  7. The secret master plan seems to be working by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 5, Insightful
    The Secret Master Plan was published in 2006, 13 years ago.

    The entire Tesla enterprise is a bet on a curve. The battery price will halve and the energy density will double every seven years. Sort of a Moore's Law for the batteries. The play book of Tesla is to find which segment of the car/suv market can be attacked at what price batteries. Roadster in 2008. S in 2012. X in 2015. 3 in 2018.

    The auto industry is very mature. Almost all its parts have been refined and optimized over and over for a long time. The prices of components, crankshafts, body panels, differential gears, do not change significantly between the conception, design and production. They conditioned to think like this. "Today battery price is 200 $/kWh. The gasoline power train cost X$. Replacing it with electric would give me Y kWh battery, so... " They are not used to, "battery price to day is 190 $/kWh, four years from now it will 140$/kWh, ...". This is the mistake they made in underestimating Tesla.

    Also the temperament of Elon helped. He kept making impossible to believe claims. So they discounted everything he said. Had he been a staid stiff upper lip CEO, they might have taken him more seriously and started competing with him earlier. 11 years after the Roadster, still there is no electric roadster from any competition with comparable spec. 50 kWh battery, 240 mile range, peppy two seater.

    While the media circus he created kept focusing on his "failures". What he delivered in his "failures" were still stunning ground breaking trail blazing machines.

    The battery era is dawning. It is getting cheaper to store 1 GWh of electricity than to build an gas burning powerplant, in the usa! In deep mines, not having to suck out the diesel exhaust pays for the conversion to battery powered earth movers!

    At the price of 90 $/kWh BEV and ICEV will cost the same off the dealership, for a 300 mile range car. At that price indeterminacy of solar and wind would not be an issue. We are in for a great battery powered future.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    1. Re:The secret master plan seems to be working by AmiMoJo · · Score: 2, Informative

      Tesla are the Apple for the car world. Expensive, extremely "loyal" fans who can't look at them objectively, and a somewhat dubious guy in charge.

      Of course Tesla deserve a lot of credit, but Nissan pioneered affordable EVs that were actually reliable and make economic sense. Even today you would be crazy to buy a used Tesla without a warranty. Nissan also build a much bigger, more comprehensive charging network in many European countries where Tesla are sparse or non-existent. It's not going to be fun when CCS enabled Model 3s start hogging them and Tesla don't invest in extra generic chargers at those sites.

      LG deserve a lot of credit for pioneering lower cost pouch cells too. It looks like the old cylindrical form factor that Panasonic/Tesla use is not going to complete on price and density in the long run, except for certain performance applications.

      None of which is to say that Tesla is bad (although an Elon claim/promise is utterly worthless - where are those solar powered chargers, or full self driving, or sentry mode, or all the other things promised (and sold!) years ago?) but credit where credit is due, e.g. acknowledgement of much cheaper, better spec long range EVs that have already made the $35k Model 3 pretty unattractive.

      --
      const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
      SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
    2. Re:The secret master plan seems to be working by steveha · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The Nissan Leaf is very affordable if you buy one used... because the resale value plummets. A new Leaf is $30K and I can buy a low-mileage 2017 Leaf for $15K. A 2012 Leaf is $8K. For a second car, to be used in local driving, a used Leaf is a great value.

      A Tesla holds its value much better, perhaps partially because Tesla engineered active cooling in the battery pack so charging doesn't cook the cells. Teslas only lose about 1% battery capacity per year and they start with much higher capacities. Plus Tesla has the Supercharger network. A Tesla really can be your only car, even if you need or want to make long road trips.

      Note that the Model 3 costs more than the Leaf and is harder to get. Yet it's still outselling the Leaf. That's customers voting with their money. You may think that Nissan is doing a better job, but the market does not agree with you.

      --
      lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
    3. Re:The secret master plan seems to be working by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It has already happened. The battery price has fallen by a factor of 16 in the last 28 years. It is expected to continue to fall to 60$/kWh in 2025. All hell will break loose when the price breaks through 90$/kWh automobiles total disruption, and then at 75$/kWh when solar/wind storage makes spot market for electricity vanish. Juicy margins of natural gas burning power plants come from that market. When it crashes through 60 $/kWh, domestic distributed storage will disrupt the utilities. Richer people will disconnect from the grid, and rest of the people still on the grid will face higher charges. More will defect. Utilities will follow the life cycle of bus lines and tram lines. All within the next 12 years.

      --
      sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
    4. Re:The secret master plan seems to be working by blindseer · · Score: 2

      Tesla are the Apple for the car world. Expensive, extremely "loyal" fans who can't look at them objectively, and a somewhat dubious guy in charge.

      As someone that has a lot of Apple products in his possession I'll say that's probably not too far from the truth.

      Here's a question for you, how does a company "buy" loyalty like that? It comes from something, what is it?

      If you figure out what that "magic ingredient" is then I'm guessing that you will become very wealthy yourself.

      --
      I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
    5. Re: The secret master plan seems to be working by c6gunner · · Score: 3, Insightful

      When fuel and maintenance costs are $2,000 less per year than a comparable ICE, the $55k BEV ends up having the same TCO as a $25k ICE after 10 years, and likely has a higher resale value at the end of that term. Only a dumb idiot consumer such as yourself would fail to realize that.

  8. Re:Need a cheap no fills model by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 2

    You represent a very tiny market. Further you are unlikely to pay much for what you desire. The market might not serve you.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  9. Re:I'll wait on the Chinese by Rei · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Sales are always low in January, Tesla made a huge pre-tax credit phasedown push (although they've almost completely compensated for the credit reduction via cost savings since then), and they're focusing production on European and Chinese models - not simply for the ability to sell with a much higher ASP (very high take rates on M3P, for example), but because it's quite time critical due to the trade wars (March deadline for the renewal of tariffs against China, and next week a new ruling about whether to start a 90 day countdown to impose tariffs against Europe, which would also meet with retaliatory tariffs on the auto industry). There's now 7 RORO ships out there full of Model 3s, not counting the Glovis Captain which recently unloaded at Zeebrugge.

    Tesla always focuses on what's time critical. Before the US credit phasedown, that was the US. Now that it's 6 months until the next, smaller phasedown, the focus is on China and Europe.

    --
    Anchor: "We take you now to our Chief Meteorologist, Paris Hilton." Paris: "It's hot." Anchor: "Thank you."
  10. Let's get this out of the way shall we by AlanObject · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The record.

    • Elon Musk is delusional and an egomaniac.
    • Tesla is out of cash. Will close the doors in six months tops.
    • Telsa's employees are in open revolt.
    • Elon Musk promises but never delivers.
    • Tesla's top executives are bailing.
    • EVs are more polluting than ICE cars anyway.
    • All the big automakers are going to eat Tesla's lunch. Tesla will never scale. And don't get me started on China.
    • Telsa quality control is complete crap worst ever.
    • Tesla cars catch fire all the time why would anyone buy one.
    • All Tesla's investors are suing the company and the SEC is going to put the company in receiverhip.

    Did I miss anything? For the past 4 years I have been reading all the above here on /. over and over and over again posted with absolute conviction any time the topic comes up. Anyone care to update or respond to the list?

    1. Re:Let's get this out of the way shall we by alvinrod · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Anyone care to update or respond to the list?

      If they actually bet on those beliefs, they've probably lost their shoes in the stock market and can't afford to comment. But talk is always cheap and there's no end of people who'd like to convince you that they know what they're talking about. Anyone who was all talk is surely talking about something else right now.

    2. Re:Let's get this out of the way shall we by steveha · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Electric cars, and Teslas in particular, are a teensy, tiny minority of all the cars out there, and a teensy proportion of new sales.

      Teslas look quite a bit better if you only consider their share of markets Tesla actually is in. The number of cars sold worldwide would include the number of cars sold in India and China where Tesla has no serious business yet.

      I was surprised to read that in the state of California, about 1 in 22 of all cars sold in the third quarter of 2018 were Teslas (actual number: 4.6% of "light vehicle sales"). That's not their share of BEVs, that's their share of all cars sold.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/02/tesla-4-6-of-california-vehicle-sales-in-q3/

      It's true that BEVs are still a tiny slice of the worldwide car market. There was a time when car sales were tiny compared to horse-drawn buggy sales. The past doesn't guarantee the future.

      Musk is a salesman. [...] But the giants can stamp on him any time they like.

      I used to think there was some truth to this idea. Now I scorn it.

      For "the giants" to "stamp on him" they would have to produce so many electric cars that they steal away his customers. One question for you... where will they get the batteries? Have they invested staggering sums of money into their own battery factory, as Tesla did?

      Also, will their cars be just as good as a Tesla? I don't take seriously any car design that doesn't have a front trunk. The new electric cars that just have an electric motor under the hood instead of an ICE engine seem like slap-dash last-minute catch-up designs by companies that aren't ready to compete with Tesla yet.

      It's not that I think the front trunk by itself is that big a deal; the front trunk is the by-product of a clean-sheet new BEV design. Why would you want a complex drive train when you can have a motor right between the two wheels? For all-wheel drive, why would you want anything other than two redundant motors? If a car company hasn't even gotten that far, how competitive can its cars really be to Tesla?

      To hear Musk (and others) speak, you'd think BMW are scrambling to catch up. They're not. They just don't care.

      That's an interesting idea. I doubt you can support it.

      In the "large luxury car" segment of the market, Tesla ate everyone else's lunch. Not that many people will pay $80K or $100K or more for a car, so a Tesla sale is a sale some other company didn't get. Tesla got more sales than BMW or Mercedes or any other luxury maker.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/01/1-tesla-model-s-dominating-large-luxury-car-sales-in-usa/

      If you add up Mercedes S-class sales, and BMW 6-series and 7-series sales, that's roughly the number of cars sold as the Tesla Model S alone.

      The picture looks actually worse when you compare the Tesla Model 3 to its competitors. It's crushing them.

      https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/08/tesla-model-3-completely-crushing-us-luxury-car-competition-10-cleantechnica-charts/

      Are these companies blithely unconcerned about Tesla? Really?

      To hear Musk (and others) speak, you'd think BMW are scrambling to catch up. They're not. They just don't care. Their EV models make them no more than Tesla, which is a drop in the ocean to them. It's chicken-feed to them, in a niche market.

      As I understand Elon Musk's claims: car companies currently make a lot of money off of car repairs; BEVs need less repairs and don't cost very much to repair; car companies have been reluctant to switch to BEVs because they stand to make much less money off of BEVs.

      --
      lf(1): it's like ls(1) but sorts filenames by extension, tersely
  11. Re: I'll wait on the Chinese by beanpoppa · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Agreed. My typical new car is about $40k, but I went well above to $55k for my 3. After about $11k in tax savings, and free charging at work, it comes out cheaper than $40k.

  12. 2 MORE TIMES by NEDHead · · Score: 2

    Double it 6 times and it will be 120% of the world market!!

  13. Re:Need a cheap no fills model by runningduck · · Score: 2

    You can pick up some original Leafs in great condition in the $7k to $9k range. Even with degraded batteries they are still good for about 50 miles. And they are great cars as well.

    --
    -rd
  14. Re:Need a cheap no fills model by runningduck · · Score: 2

    Nissan offers both new and refurbished replacement battery packs. I don't have the exact costs, but the new packs cost in the ballpark of $7k and bring the range up to the 75 ~ 85 mile range. The refurbished packs cost in the ballpark of $3k and bring the range up to about 50 ~ 60 miles--really more of an option if the pack completely fails out of warranty.

    If I were to buy a used Leaf, I would either buy one that looks like it will meet my needs for the next few years, or find one with a battery pack that has lost most of its range and replace the pack with a new one immediately.

    --
    -rd
  15. Re: I'll wait on the Chinese by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 3, Informative

    I can afford to pay even 100K for a car. But I wont pay more than 25K for a car. I made an exception for Tesla. There is a huge numbers of camry, accord owners who voluntarily stop at that price point. Give them a compelling reason, they will pay 60K.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  16. Re:Except... by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 2
    Kenh, I was like you, very skeptical of batteries till about last year. Once I did the research and studied it, I was convinced. You have a four digit id. You will be convinced too, if you read about it.

    My classmate is the chief engineer in a nuclear waste storage facility deep underground. He just ordered a HVAC system upgrade costing 130 million dollars, to deal with the diesel fumes. For that money you could buy 1 GWh of batteries. Enough to keep 40 Earth movers operating 24/7 with batteries on 8 hour use, 16 hour recharge cycle. The smaller HVAC, motors being four times cheaper than diesel makes the break even point is about one year! The price point has been reached. It is not happening right now because there is simply not enough battery making capacity, not because the cost is too high. Total world battery capacity is just 40 GWh. This one waste storage can absorb 2.5% of it! All earth moving companies have announced batter powered earth movers. Range is not an issue, hot swap battery packs will keep them going 24/7. Diesel earthmovers will die a sudden and quick death.

    Yes batteries store energy. Solar and wind have free fuel. Their only cost is interest payment on their investment and payroll. Both very stable and predictable. Gas plants create energy but natural gas prices fluctuate a lot. And the maintenance is expensive. These batteries remove the indeterminacy of solar/wind. Utility scale batteries are coming. Already three gas peaker plants are being retired by PG&E to be replaced with batteries. Batteries are coming.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  17. Re:Except... by shilly · · Score: 2

    Um

    https://www.hitachicm.com/glob...
    https://www.heavyequipmentguid...
    https://www.theconstructionind...
    https://www.theconstructionind...
    https://cleantechnica.com/2018...
    https://electrek.co/2017/09/17...

  18. Re: I'll wait on the Chinese by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    You'll be surprised. Many of the newer Tesla owners in the Model 3 didn't buy to "save the world." Electric vehicles are fun to drive and might save money in TCO depending on your situation. Your situation really matters and why there are so many vehicles in the market to fit so many needs and wants. That said, Tesla is still more luxury brand than Chevy or Kia is even with the Model 3 being less than a Model S. I am surprised how people stretch to buy a car and hope they ran their numbers right.

    Things like free charging at work and for fairly long commutes without needing oil changes every month and the ability to "fill up" your car every night before work are nice. Autopilot for the miles of commuting traffic also helps immensely.

    We're fortunate as a family and own more than one car. Our cars that use gas are great too mainly because you can relatively economically operate a larger one at this point in time and they make good road trip cars but that's actually proving less so after using the Model 3 for long trips. Also, I find it nice to have an older, easy to maintain car that's essentially fully depreciated to use. Autopilot really does reduce fatigue on longer trips though adaptive cruise control helps immensely.

    The tax credit/break is contentious for the pro/against EV camps. Tax policy as a method of motivating people and industries in one way or another is inherently linked to politics. Promoting EV cars though a tax credit was probably the right direction but has terrible delivery and optics. I agree that China might "win" in the end since their EV policies are quite aggressive also. The growth of EV as total percentage of new cars sold in China is astoundingly as ICE car market is actually shrinking and why the legacy car makers are paying attention and have plans to electrify their drive trains if they want to stay relevant.

    My take is it's complicated. Nobody has all the answers or really knows where the market will be hence why there's so much money being invested.