Scientists Have Reduced the Forecast of Sea Level Rise Seven Times Due To Melting of the Antarctic (maritimeherald.com)

The destruction of the Antarctic ice sheet may not lead to such a catastrophic rise in the level of the oceans, as previously thought. In a new study, the authors calculated that instead of growing by a meter or more by 2100, a growth of 14-15 cm is likely, writes N + 1. At the same time, the melting of the ice of Greenland and Antarctica is not fully taken into account in modern climate models, as it will lead to even more destabilization of the regional climate. Both studies on this are published in the journal Nature. An anonymous reader shares the report from Maritime Herald: In the first study, Tamzin Edwards from King's College London and her colleagues question this prediction. According to Edwards, who is quoted by the college press service, scientists re-analyzed data on ice loss and ocean level 3 million years ago, 125 thousand years ago and in the last 25 years and estimated the likelihood of rapid destruction of unstable sea areas of Antarctic glaciers, which the authors 2016 was associated with a meter increase in the level of the oceans. The hypothesis of such destruction received the abbreviated name MICI (marine ice cliff instability). They found that MICI does not necessarily explain the dynamics of sea level in the past, and without this the probability that the level will grow by more than 39 centimeters by 2100 is only about 5 percent. Edwards notes that in their model, even if the Antarctic glaciers really will collapse rapidly, the maximum increase in sea level will not exceed half a meter, and the most likely growth will be 14-15 cm. At the same time, scientists cannot completely eliminate the MICI phenomenon: they only talk about that more research is needed in this area.

In the second article, Edwards and Nick Golledge of Queen Victoria University in Wellington and their co-authors write that current climate models do not fully take into account the consequences of the destruction of the ice of Greenland and the Antarctic, which will slow down the Atlantic Ocean and further melt the Antarctic ice due to "locking" of warm water in the Southern Ocean (climatologists call such self-enhancing processes positive feedback processes). In addition, according to the authors of the article, the melting of ice in the warming scenario of 3-4 degrees compared with the middle of the XIX century will lead to a less predictable climate and an increase in the scale of extreme weather events.

Comments

We need more hysteria over this.

[Anonymous Coward]

Maybe we can get some celebrities together to write a song or something...

Makes sense

[Anonymous Coward]

Next up....fresh water shortages only taxes can fix!
They got tired of pushing the ice age, then global warming, then climate change.
I guess you have to scale back fresh water melting to prepare for fresh water shortages.
Makes sense.

Jack up the taxes and make another exchange, and maybe a few new movies!

Profit!

Re:Well that 9 out of the last 0 apocalypses

[Anonymous Coward]

I'm going to have to side with the armchair authority named "umafuckit." The name and stern tone are more than enough to convince me.

Re:chaotic systems

[hey!]

The single largest contributor to the 52-98 cm of sea level rise we are expecting is thermal expansion, which is not chaotic at all. The ice is a huge wildcard which is responsible for the 46 cm of uncertainty in that figure.

This represents the most evidence-supported estimate we have to go on; assuming ice will contribute 0 is also making an unnecessarily precise prediction. We should act up on the best estimates we have; it's no different than predicting the track of a hurricane three days in advance. That track prediction is almost certainly somewhat off, but it's certainly actionable.