Slashdot Mirror
Renewables Will Be World's Main Power Source By 2040, Says BP (cnbc.com)
An anonymous reader quotes a report from CNBC: In a not-too-distant future, renewable energy becomes the world's biggest source of power generation. A quarter of the distances that humans travel by vehicle will be in electric cars. U.S. dominance in the oil market begins to wane, and OPEC's influence is resurgent, as crude demand finally peaks. That is the vision laid out by British oil and gas giant BP on Thursday in its latest Annual Energy Outlook. The closely followed report lays out a vision through 2040 for Earth's energy future, provided government policy, technology and consumer preferences evolve in line with recent trends. BP forecasts that the world's energy demand will grow by a third through 2040, driven by rising consumption in China, India and other parts of Asia. About 75 percent of that increase will come from the need to power industry and buildings. At the same time, energy demand will continue to grow in the transportation sector, but that growth will slow sharply as vehicles become more efficient and more consumers opt for electric cars. But despite the increase in supply, BP thinks two-thirds of the world's population will still live in places with relatively low energy consumption per head. The takeaway: The world will need to generate more energy. The report says natural gas consumption will grow by 50 percent over the next 20 years, increasing in virtually every corner of the globe. "Throughout most of that time, the world will continue to consume more oil year after year, until demand ultimately peaks around 108 million barrels per day in the 2030s," reports CNBC. "This year, OPEC expects global oil demand to reach 100 million bpd."
Meanwhile, coal consumption is forecasted to flatline, as China and developed countries quit the fossil fuel in favor of cleaner-burning and renewable energy sources. "However, BP sees India and other Asian nations burning more coal to meet surging power demand as the nations become more prosperous," reports CNBC.
Meanwhile, coal consumption is forecasted to flatline, as China and developed countries quit the fossil fuel in favor of cleaner-burning and renewable energy sources. "However, BP sees India and other Asian nations burning more coal to meet surging power demand as the nations become more prosperous," reports CNBC.
Well, I think that timeline is unlikely but sure, it's possible. Particularly if we (ever) get fusion practical.
Ferret
Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
No, they won't.
There is nothing as energy dense, convenient, safe, and inexpensive as hydrocarbons. Maybe we can replace those hydrocarbons with something not from petroleum. Maybe we will use fuels other than hydrocarbons, but that doesn't mean the end for the internal combustion engine. The ICE is just too well entrenched in the culture, economy, and infrastructure to be replaced so quickly.
Part of this infrastructure is the existing stock of vehicles themselves. A common diesel powered truck, tractor, locomotive, ship, or whatever, have a lifespan of decades. Anything sold in the last decade up to today will have a better than 50/50 chance of still being in use in 20 years. Even if no one made spare parts the existing stock of vehicles becomes a supply of spare parts. Then there's things like 3D printing and good old fashioned cottage industry of small time machine shops. People will be burning ethanol, vegetable oil, lubricating grease, solvents, or whatever else they can mix up to keep the wheels turning if something interrupts the supply of petroleum.
No, the ICE will not be obsolete in20 years. Not unless there's some great leap in technology. That leap is unlikely to come from batteries. Sure, maybe the commuter car can be replaced with electrics. That won't mean much for the other vehicles that move, on the road and off.
I am armed because I am free. I am free because I am armed.
There is nothing as energy dense, convenient, safe, and inexpensive as hydrocarbons
Hopefully batteries will be in 20 years. (btw gasoline is not safe.)
"First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
Oh, people do know that those windmills need power to get up to speed to catch the wind, right? They can't get going on their own, they take electricity to get started before they produce any on their own.
Just like ICE engines?
Thank goodness you pointed out the importance of solving range, charging station availability and time-to-charge as issues. It's definitely the first time those issues have been flagged in relation to EVs, which is why range, charging station availability and time-to-charge have all remained static for the past decade.
Actually once renewables exceed about 20% of the mix the requirement for backup starts to fall. Geographic distribution and high levels of predictability, combined with a distributed nature that means a single failure only takes out tens of megawatts instead of a gigawatt or two all make renewables more reliable, not less.
Battery tech is going to make peaking plants unprofitable in the next decade or two max. Gas and other types of peak coverage can't react fast enough to compete with batteries. Environmental considerations don't even come into it. Best of all it allows individual energy users to buy their own batteries and avoid those high peak rates completely. Industrial users will level out their consumption, domestic users will charge up when it's cheapest and their solar isn't providing enough during the day.
Any plan based on the old economics of base load and peak demand is going to fail. The nature of the grid and energy consumption is changing.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC
Nu-cle-ar
Pow-er
Chas - The one, the only.
THANK GOD!!!
And when you burn gasoline in a real-world engine only about 1/5th of the energy makes it to the wheels. Bulk energy storage is only part of the story; what matters in the end is how much useful work you can do with the energy you're able to store. If you can use the energy more efficiently, you can do the same work with less.
The "hydrocarbon advantage" isn't as large as you might think, because the relative efficiencies of gasoline vs chemical battery goes a LONG way to close the gap.
=Smidge=
Japan isn't building new nuclear plants. The only "new" one is a third reactor at Shimane, which was scheduled to go online in 2011 but was delayed. Not only due to Fukushima, but due to a new previously unknown fault line being discovered in the area and additional safety upgrades being required.
No new designs are being build, and there are no serious plans for any. Japan's nuclear industry is going bust, e.g. Westinghouse, as global demand for their products falls. The industry is trying to pivot away to renewables but they were late to the game and China is on their doorstep.
const int one = 65536; (Silvermoon, Texture.cs)
SJW, n: "Someone I don't like, and by the way I'm a fuckwit" - AC