Google's DeepMind Can Predict Wind Patterns a Day In Advance (engadget.com)

technology_dude writes: Google's DeepMind can predict wind patterns one day in advance. "Beginning last year, [Google and DeepMind] fed weather forecasts and existing turbine data into DeepMind's machine learning platform, which churned out wind power predictions 36 hours ahead of actual power generation," Engadget reports. "Google could then make supply commitments to power grids a full day before delivery." According to the report, this makes the energy generated by its wind turbines more valuable (by roughly 20%). Is this a blow to Big Blue who purchased The Weather Channel's Weather.com to showcase Watson, or is it news just because it's Google?

Comments

Algorithms vs. models

[VeryFluffyBunny]

A little lesson in scientific literacy:

Algorithms, like Google's, that trawl through historical data & make predictions based on that work fine, as long as everything continues as before & nothing changes. It's a complex equivalent of continuing a straight line on a graph & calling it a prediction. It's completely useless & can even be destructive if you use it in combination with exerting influence on the system itself because biased or wrong predictions (which is always the case) create positive feedback loops that are self-reinforcing. A prime example of this abuse of data is so called predictive policing, which suffers from a negative form of the "Matthew Effect."

In contrast, a theoretical model makes predictions based on the properties, forces, & constraints on a system, be it complex (probabilities) or simple (rules). Even if conditions change, anomalies appear, etc., the model is more likely to remain reasonably predictive.

BTW, looking for patterns, regularities, etc. in data without testable hypotheses or research questions is a form of scientific malpractice called p-hacking.

Conclusions: AI is only predictive as long as nothing changes. Models or more reliable & flexible. We shouldn't stop thinking about how the world works & give it all over to mindless algorithms.