Slashdot Mirror
Chinese Carriers, Ethiopian Airlines Halt Use of Boeing 737 MAX 8 Aircraft After Crash (reuters.com)
China's aviation regulator today grounded nearly 100 Boeing Co 737 MAX 8 aircraft operated by its airlines, more than a quarter of the global fleet of the jets, after a deadly crash of one of the planes in Ethiopia. From a report: However, a U.S. official said it was unclear what information the Chinese regulator was acting on because the investigation of Sunday's crash, the second involving the latest version of the narrowbody jet, was in the early stages. Speaking on condition of anonymity as the topic is sensitive, the U.S. official said there were no plans to follow suit, as the jet had a stellar safety record in the United States and there was a lack of information on what caused the Ethiopian crash.
I'm going out in a limb here but maybe they were acting on the information that another one had crashed.
Ethiopia is predominantly Christian.
Of course it may be a coincidence. But it is an extremely low probability coincidence.
Let's be clear. The 737-NG and A320 family both have total fatal hull loss rates of less than 1 in 10,000 aircraft years in operation. This is generous and includes all accidents: terrorists, captain suicide, mechanical issue, and pilot error.
The DC-10 - recognized as having a fatal design flaw with its cargo door and widely recognized as a "dangerous" airliner at the time - took 1,600 aircraft flight years before suffering two fatal accidents.
The 737 MAX 8 has had 2 hull losses in less than 300 flight years of operation. That is nearly 70 times higher than the 737-NG and A320 family.
The likelihood of the 737 MAX having the same ultimate failure probability as the 737NG and A320 and having two fatal hull loss accidents in only 300 flight years is something on the order of 1 in a 1000.
Even if the ET302 flight is boiled down to "pilot error" (like the Lion Air flight), that is just an excuse. If the ET302 had the same failure mode as the Lion Air flight, then the fact that you have two separate incidents with a loss of control (shortly after takeoff, meaning less room for root cause analysis, checklists, etc) is a design flaw. Full stop. Whether or not a pilot could recover is not relevant; an airframe should not be constantly testing pilots with unexpected loss of control.
It is still "safe" to fly a 737 MAX 8 relative to most other daily activities. You probably won't die if you fly on one. That said, relative to aviation standards and safety records that we have achieved in the past 50 years, the 737 MAX 8 - today, at least - appears like a veritable statistical death trap.
Right, you can be sure of that.
We should continue to blame China for everything wrong on this planet, that will for sure Make America Great Again.
Over 150 people just died, which is 3 Chernobyls. This means that aviation is a dead-end technology that cannot possibly be made safe at reasonable levels of cost. Germany takes the lead, mothballing all civilian aircraft now in use. From now on, Germans will use their rail network to carry domestic traffic. For international travel, Germany will build a new fleet of ships, wind powered and made of sustainable tree derived materials.
The US will take a more measured approach. No new planes will be ordered, but airlines will continue to operate with existing craft until they age out, whereupon they will be replaced by buses. The UK will do the same, but will order one more aircraft from China, specially designed with 12 engines and parachutes for each passenger, to cost GBP 10 billion and be delivered in 2025.