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The Other Recent Deadly Boeing Crash No One Is Talking About (nymag.com)

New York magazine's Intelligencer remembers last month's crash of a Boeing 767 carrying cargo for Amazon and the U.S. Postal Service -- and shares a new theory that its cause wasn't a suicidal pilot or an autopilot malfunction: In online pilot discussion forums, a third idea has been gaining adherents: that the pilots succumbed to a phenomenon called somatogravic illusion, in which lateral acceleration due to engine thrust creates the sensation that one is tipping backward in one's seat. The effect is particularly strong when a plane is lightly loaded, as it would be at the end of a long flight when the fuel tanks are mostly empty, and in conditions of poor visibility, as Atlas Air 3591 was as it worked its way through bands of bad weather. The idea is that perhaps one of the pilots accidentally or in response to wind shear set the engines to full power, and then believed that the plane had become dangerously nose-high and so pushed forward on the controls. This would cause a low-g sensation that might have been so disorienting that by the time the plane came barreling out of the bottom of the clouds there wasn't enough time to pull out of the dive.

It has been speculated that this might have been the cause of another bizarre and officially unsolved accident from three years ago: Flydubai Flight 981, which crashed 2016 in Rostov-on-Don, Russia.... While it's still too early to draw any kind of conclusions about Atlas Air 3591, the possibility exists that a firm conclusion will never be drawn -- and if it is, the cause could turn out not to be a design flaw or software malfunction that can be rectified, but a basic shortcoming in human perception and psychology that cannot be fixed as long as humans are entrusted with the control of airplanes.

17 of 80 comments (clear)

  1. Flying by Instruments? by seven+of+five · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I'm not anything near being a pilot, but seriously, aren't jet pilots supposed to fly by what the instruments tell them and not by seat of the pants?

    1. Re:Flying by Instruments? by quonset · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Beat me to it. Was going to ask about looking at the artificial horizon to see what it said. That should have told the pilots whether they were climbing or descending regardless of what they may have felt.

    2. Re:Flying by Instruments? by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 5, Funny

      It's said that the A380 comes with the best instruments on Earth and a dog. The instruments are there to fly the plane and the dog is there to bite the pilot if he tries to.

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    3. Re:Flying by Instruments? by BobC · · Score: 5, Informative

      Yes, commercial pilots are taught to "fly their instruments". General aviation pilots may enjoy more "seat-of-the-pants" flying, but even they are taught to trust instruments over human perceptions, which are easily fooled, as even simple demos will show.

      I used to work for an aircraft instrument maker, and our user interfaces, everything the pilot interacts with, got more care and attention than the rest of the instrument. Of course we had to display nothing but totally accurate data, and do so promptly, but we also had to do so in ways that were obvious and clear, so the pilot can take in the most important information with a quick glance.

      The pilot's standard "scan" is perhaps the most-trained skill. To look at everything on the instrument panels and outside the windows often enough to not miss anything, yet slow enough to take in all vital information.

      When things get hectic, the pilot still does this scan, interrupting it as needed to deal with situations, but still doing it. Because, as the saying goes, "trouble often comes in threes": Stopping everything to handle an initial situation may mask what's really going on, and lead to a cascade of failures.

      With ever more data being aimed at the pilot, there is a distinct risk of information overload, especially when tired, or during tense but otherwise normal situations, such as take-off, landing, or flying through turbulence. This overload often encourages the pilot to rely more on signals from the body, which need less conscious processing, rather than focus on all that data.

      Here, again, is where commercial pilots receive extra training, but perhaps not often enough. This is one of the factors that keep commercial pilot mandatory retirement ages so low: The risk of overload increases with age, even when all other factors match those of a younger person.

      Plus, staying in peak training for decades is fatiguing, and relatively few can do so "naturally". Which is one of the reasons we're running out of commercial aircraft pilots.

      It may seem counter-intuitive, but this overload risk is often handled by adding more automation, more automatic systems to "help" the pilot. So much so that actually manually "driving" a commercial aircraft, with hands on the controls, is an increasingly rare part of a normal flight.

      Our instruments also tried to take pilot fatigue into account, saving our brightest and loudest alarms only for the most desperate situations, to punch-through that overload to help ensure prompt and correct reactions.

      One product I worked on was a TAWS (Terrain Awareness and Warning System) instrument, which basically stayed quiet unless there was a risk of the pilot flying into the ground, to help prevent "CFIT" accidents (Controlled Flight Into the Ground). It has special modes for take-off and landing, though our instrument was designed to actually *avoid* making the pilot depend on it's display: Useful for information as part of the scan, but not to be used to navigate the aircraft. Our main function was to provide visual and audible alerts only when needed.

      I believe 100% of US commercial aircraft (and perhaps now even biz-jets) are required to have TAWS on-board and active. Any TAWS-equipped plane approaching the ground outside of an approved approach path for a know airport will give the pilot "Terrain ahead. Pull up! Pull up!" alerts until the hazard no longer exists.

      Unfortunately, if a stall is also immanent, the pilot will simultaneously receive an alert to push the nose down. And increase power. And other things as well. An overload of alerts, which a skilled and calm pilot will respond to with the most correct action. But which can overload a stressed or tired pilot, or one with the beginnings of a cold or flu.

      The thing is, every alert can be silenced, to reduce the confusion and distractions. But an overloaded pilot can forget even this simple aid to keeping full awareness and control.

      This is a big part of why pilots are so often blamed for crashes:

    4. Re:Flying by Instruments? by Humbubba · · Score: 2
      Revisiting the Boeing 767 crash and an officially unsolved 2016 accident, now of all times, makes me suspicious as to why.

      The Boeing 737 Max 8s crashes were originally presented as possibly/probably due to pilot error. Now that the world has a completely different take, this pops up.

      According to the story on /., the 767 and 3591 crashes might have been due to the pilots succumbing to "somatogravic illusion"; a shortcoming in human perception. In other words, pilot error.

      Possibly, but why bring this up now? Relevance? Obfuscation? Are they trying to bury the bit where Boeing was charging extra for the 737 Max 8 fix?

      A new old saying comes to mind, "First blame the pilot, then the plane. Never the company."

    5. Re:Flying by Instruments? by esperto · · Score: 2

      this is why I still come to slashdot, thank you for you comment sir!

    6. Re:Flying by Instruments? by LynnwoodRooster · · Score: 2

      They should have gotten a warning from the altimiter.

      It's been a while since I've been in a jet cockpit, but I don't remember seeing a dresser, and thus I'm not sure mitered corners on drawers would help.

      --
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    7. Re:Flying by Instruments? by Richard_at_work · · Score: 3, Informative

      Don't forget the fact that during the 1990s Boeing blamed several crashes of the 737 on pilots, when mounting evidence showed that the 737 had a rudder control issue which caused hard over or rudder reversal events in certain circumstances, such as on approach to landing.

  2. GPS breadcrumbs to calculate speed vector by ClarkMills · · Score: 2

    GPS can also calculate altitude so couldn't they integrate the 3 speed vectors (normally we just see 2 ignoring altitude, no?) and present the ascent/decent data as another input (maybe weighted down). The same can be done with the air speed indicator. I am not saying I want to primarily rely on GPS but it does present some data that may be of use. Indeed when there is a highlighted anomaly it may even help indicate GPS spoofing if nothing else.

    1. Re:GPS breadcrumbs to calculate speed vector by slashdice · · Score: 3, Informative

      Barometric altitude is much more accurate than GPS altitude.

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    2. Re:GPS breadcrumbs to calculate speed vector by yes-but-no · · Score: 2

      GPS can't give you *relative* air speed. eg if you are in a tail-wind jet stream of 200 mph, just to get the lift you need 200 mph more than normal speed needed. Surely in calm weather, GPS could aid - a secondary indicator when your instruments malfunction. I guess pilots ask the air-traffic-controller (if one is within reach) about their speed - which the atc gets thru' radar.

    3. Re:GPS breadcrumbs to calculate speed vector by angel'o'sphere · · Score: 2

      No, it is not.
      It is just more relevant for air flow etc. ...

      Barometric you can perhaps measure your altitude close to 100m precision (hint: you need to know the pressure on ground, and you don't know that one), GPS can measure your altitude close to a few cm, and needs no further information to do that.

      --
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  3. Artificial horizon? by ebonum · · Score: 2

    If you look at it and you are headed down (and you have good airspeed), you don't need to keep trying to nose down - regardless of what your senses are telling you.

    What about looking at how the altimeter is changing?

    The artificial horizon gives you a lot of information when your sense of direction is playing tricks on you (in the clouds and feeling like you are going up,down, rolling, etc.)

  4. Re:And this is why more automation saves lifes by dunkelfalke · · Score: 3, Informative

    Except a 737 is not a fly by wire airplane with envelope protection.

    --
    "It's such a fine line between stupid and clever" -- David St. Hubbins, Spinal Tap
  5. Re: Air Cargo Crashes.... by MichaelJ · · Score: 2

    The article follows that âoelightly loadedâ by talking about near the end of the flight having less fuel in the tanks. I donâ(TM)t think the article is necessarily saying the plane was lightly loaded with cargo.

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    Michael J.
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  6. May we wait for the Black Box interpretation by mschuyler · · Score: 5, Insightful

    please? Speculation as to the cause isn't helpful to anyone, especially by non-pilots (Read: Most comments and yes, I am one) Wait for the Black Box interpretation before you go running off at the mouth about stuff you know nothing about.

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    How about a moderation of -1 pedantic.
  7. Flight control and it's not a design error by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    First, I'm not trying to justify Boeing or what they did. Every indication is that they f**ked up royally.

    However, the reporting on this by the non-technical media has gotten out of control and is nothing short of "Boeing built and sold a deathtrap". They did not and it was not just Boeing's failures (though Boeing could have done a lot more to eliminate the failures by others... or even the possibility of them).

    The 737 MAX MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) improves the flight handling of the 737 MAX which has different flight characteristics from other 737's because the engines (which are by far the heaviest component on the plane) were moved ~6 inches forward of the wing to accommodate the larger engine size. This has often been characterized in the media as meaning the plane is unstable or not flight worthy (both incorrect) and that the MCAS is a "hack" that was snuck past the FAA (also incorrect). MCAS systems are very common and have been for decades. There are planes that are unstable in flight and CANT be flown without an MCAS but these are generally military aircraft where the increased agility or other benefits justify the risk (the F-117 is a perfect example of this, the shape required for that generation of "stealth" created an aircraft that was unstable).

    What seems to have lead to both the Lion Air and Ethiopian Air crashes was not the MCAS per se but the way the plane responds to a stall event perceived by the angle of attack sensors (AOA). On all 737's ("original", "NG" and "MAX") the MCAS will put the nose of the plane down in attempt to prevent the stall. On every generation before the MAX this behavior could be canceled by the pilot by pulling back on the yoke (which is intuitive... the pilot is directly counter-acting the nose down). On the MAX this behavior was changed, the MCAS had to be turned off by pulling a circuit breaker. This was Boeing's first screw up, that is not intuitive and a break from decades of previous behavior. (Note: this type of circuit breakers are not like the ones in your car where you have to go digging for them, they are switches that are readily available to the pilot).

    Where Boeing further screwed up (and can/may be viewed as criminal subterfuge) is that they did not make this information expressly clear to _everyone_. From everything I've read it was clearly documented in the maintenance manuals for all airlines but it was not clearly documented in the pilot's manual. For some airlines it was, for some it wasn't. The question is wether or not Boeing did this so that the plane would qualify as the same type as the "NG" meaning pilots qualified for the NG would be qualified for the MAX (which saves training/SIM costs for the airlines and also makes it easier for them to schedule/rotate pilots).

    IF both crashes were caused by invalid responses (nose down) to a faulty AOA sensor then both crashes were 100% preventable by the pilots. This is clearly demonstrated by the fact that the Lion Air aircraft had the same incident occur the previous day and a crash was averted because a dead-heading pilot in the cockpit jump-seat did know about the change in behavior and advised the pilots to pull the circuit breaker. The flight continued without incident.

    So no, the MAX does not have major design flaws. When handled correctly, it flies like it's supposed to. It's notable that Ethiopian Air (and all other airlines it seems) immediately updated their 737MAX training after the Lion Air crash brought the difference to light. The pilot in command of the EA flight that crashed skipped this updated training (I have not seen any information about the co-pilot).

    The root issue is not the design changes on the MAX, it's how the design changes were communicated:
    1. Boeing should have made the new requirement to disable the stall handling much more clear.
    2. The FAA probably should not have approved it as the same "type" as a 737NG.
    3. The Airlines should have been more diligent in their assessment of th