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Tesla Deliveries Are Down 31% From Last Quarter -- But Up 110% From Last Year (forbes.com)

An anonymous reader quotes Forbes: Tesla's stock dropped 8% Thursday on the news that Q1 deliveries fell 31% from the previous quarter. However, being a seasonal business, car companies usually compare their results against the same quarter from the previous year. On that basis, virtually all of the major car companies have said Q1 sales will be flat to 7% lower than last year. In contrast, Tesla's deliveries are up 110% from last year. From the one year perspective, Tesla is the only car company that is growing...

Yesterday's headlines which focused on the 31% decline are factually correct but misleading. Moreover, Tesla said that delays in deliveries to Europe and China caused "a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally..." Had Tesla managed the increased deliveries in Europe and China a little better, they might have come close to Wall Street's expectations.

On Friday, Tesla's stock bounced up 2.68%.

4 of 94 comments (clear)

  1. Not seasonality that cause sequential Q rev drop by JoeyRox · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It was the expiration/reduction of consumer tax credit. A huge amount of demand was pulled forward in the final Q of last year for that reason.

  2. Re:Tesla is a fraud by cheesybagel · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's not the same thing. Theranos advertised a product which they never actually delivered. That they could do a variety of blood tests with a small blood sample which they did not.

    Tesla sells an actual product that does work as advertised.

  3. Thanks for the analysis by Okian+Warrior · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Thank you for posting that. I was wondering where the mislead was, since all the recent expert analysis seemed reasonable and rational.

    In case anyone hasn't been following the Tesla saga (most people, I imagine), public sentiment about the company is completely and totally driven by a sense of profit for the customers of the people writing the sentiment. If a fund's customers would profit by the stock tanking, then they try to bring that about by writing misleading predictions of doom and gloom.

    The Tesla target price is all over the map - from from a low of 180 to a high of 500.

    Tesla used to be the most shorted stock in history, and still has significant short interest. Roughly $11 b is betting that the stock will tank, and this results in enormous incentive to bring that about.

    Last summer it was "Tesla will need another round of financing, we're certain", then Tesla paid its debt obligation in cash from profits.

    Last month it was "Musk violated the SEC agreement", by tweeting information that was available in the published documents.

    Today it's "interest has dried up". Wait a half a year and see if the trend is correct.

    It's completely insane that the value of the company stock is based not on analysis and solid numbers, but on the perception of numbers. The stock doesn't go up or down based on whether they make a profit - it goes up or down based on whether it meets or exceeds *expectations* of profit.

    Ugh!

    It's literally impossible to get good stock information about Tesla at this point, and this will probably be true going forward for several years.

    1. Re:Thanks for the analysis by Sique · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Your personal opinion on what a nice car makes doesn't matter very much, except when you personally are shopping for a car. Apparently, enough people are willing to put down money for a Model S, for what reason ever. You might not agree with the people. So what?

      I don't agree with people buying a BMW. That doesn't mean that I would call BMW's stock price overvalued, just because their cars don't fit my personal taste. I have to accept that other people want other things in a car than me. And the same is valid for you and your opinion of Tesla's offerings. They don't matter at all for the stock price of TSLA. They are just your personal taste.

      --
      .sig: Sique *sigh*