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Tesla Deliveries Are Down 31% From Last Quarter -- But Up 110% From Last Year (forbes.com)
An anonymous reader quotes Forbes:
Tesla's stock dropped 8% Thursday on the news that Q1 deliveries fell 31% from the previous quarter. However, being a seasonal business, car companies usually compare their results against the same quarter from the previous year. On that basis, virtually all of the major car companies have said Q1 sales will be flat to 7% lower than last year. In contrast, Tesla's deliveries are up 110% from last year. From the one year perspective, Tesla is the only car company that is growing...
Yesterday's headlines which focused on the 31% decline are factually correct but misleading. Moreover, Tesla said that delays in deliveries to Europe and China caused "a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally..." Had Tesla managed the increased deliveries in Europe and China a little better, they might have come close to Wall Street's expectations.
On Friday, Tesla's stock bounced up 2.68%.
Yesterday's headlines which focused on the 31% decline are factually correct but misleading. Moreover, Tesla said that delays in deliveries to Europe and China caused "a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally..." Had Tesla managed the increased deliveries in Europe and China a little better, they might have come close to Wall Street's expectations.
On Friday, Tesla's stock bounced up 2.68%.
dude, funds are secure
*rips a mighty lung filler*
this is one dank ass sales report
*repacks the bowl*
fucking sec man, harshing my buzz
How come stock trader people freak out over this?
It is Theranos but they make explosive electric cars. Same thing. Elon Musk does make good rockets, that is if SpaceX survives Tesla's imminent collapse into bankruptcy.
Corporatism != Free Market
Up 110% from a year ago is meaningless. They were barely producing the M3 a year ago. Demand has collapsed.
It was the expiration/reduction of consumer tax credit. A huge amount of demand was pulled forward in the final Q of last year for that reason.
Let's Partaaaaa!
Just wait until the Q2 numbers come out, I'll definitely be buying some puts in June
But I'm stilled locked in my car.
Not bad, but 110% makes it sound larger than it is.
Math is hard for some people.
As I've said before, the hundreds of thousands of people on the Model 3 waitlist means you can't view an increase in deliveries as an equivalent increase in customers. They're simply backfilling orders that already existed, so the 110% growth is just measuring increase in production. Depending on the rate that people on the waitlist are giving up and moving on, net customer demand could actually be decreasing.
The real test will come when the waitlist is eliminated -- then QoQ or YoY will actually measure deltas in customer demand.
Thank you for posting that. I was wondering where the mislead was, since all the recent expert analysis seemed reasonable and rational.
In case anyone hasn't been following the Tesla saga (most people, I imagine), public sentiment about the company is completely and totally driven by a sense of profit for the customers of the people writing the sentiment. If a fund's customers would profit by the stock tanking, then they try to bring that about by writing misleading predictions of doom and gloom.
The Tesla target price is all over the map - from from a low of 180 to a high of 500.
Tesla used to be the most shorted stock in history, and still has significant short interest. Roughly $11 b is betting that the stock will tank, and this results in enormous incentive to bring that about.
Last summer it was "Tesla will need another round of financing, we're certain", then Tesla paid its debt obligation in cash from profits.
Last month it was "Musk violated the SEC agreement", by tweeting information that was available in the published documents.
Today it's "interest has dried up". Wait a half a year and see if the trend is correct.
It's completely insane that the value of the company stock is based not on analysis and solid numbers, but on the perception of numbers. The stock doesn't go up or down based on whether they make a profit - it goes up or down based on whether it meets or exceeds *expectations* of profit.
Ugh!
It's literally impossible to get good stock information about Tesla at this point, and this will probably be true going forward for several years.
Yes. 1Q19 demand was pulled into 4Q18, and at the moment they still have thousands of units on ships in transit to China and Europe, effectively pushing those deliveries into 2Q19. So last quarter in particular was a low point in deliveries.
XML is like violence. If it doesn't solve your problem, you're not using enough of it. --AC
about them, claiming things like "they're not making money", even if they caveat it to meaningless with "at least not as much as they're suggesting". They are making as much money as they are suggesting. It's required by the SEC for them to be accurate. The only ones corporations claim they're making more money than they really are are to are banks when it comes to securing a loan. "reagardless of the SEC filings" is another reason why they're being hit: people just flat out claiming a criminal fraud, based on fuck all but their hatred for something both eco friendly AND damaging their favoured corporations, big oil and the car industry.
110% means instead of, say 100 cars, they sold 210 cars.
"It's completely insane that the value of the company stock is based not on analysis and solid numbers, but on the perception of numbers" - Lol, moron. Welcome to the stock market you fucking idiot.
While true, there is also seasonality in automobile sales.
BMW sold 49,261 cars in 2018Q4. They sold 41,686 cars in 2019Q1. That's a drop of 15%, and BMW didn't lose any tax credits.
(numbers from bmwgroup.com
Eventually EV makers will find out that there is a limited market of people who can work around the current disadvantages of an EV.
Laws are rules for the court, but merely a bottom bar to hit for life. Think beyond laws in your actions always.
But I want one less than ever. Basically, I think they are very ugly. I love the roadster version that is like a Lotus but the rest are horrid.
at the moment they still have thousands of units on ships in transit to China and Europe
That's wrong. there's currently 1 boat in transit, with ~200 cars. The big shipments were in January and February.
Could the Model 3 be cannibalizing sales?
Model 3 deliveries are up 522.25%, but Model S and X deliveries are down 44.50%
In 1Q 2018, Tesla delivered:
11,730 Model S
10,070 Model X
8,180 Model 3
In 1Q 2019, Tesla delivered:
12,100 Model S and X combined (Tesla didn't break down S and X deliveries separately)
50,900 Model 3
Maybe the Model S and Model X are getting dated and in need of a redesign and update? Cars usually have a 5-6 year model (generation) run before a completely redesigned model hits the lots.
What a weasel way to try and twist the bad numbers into a positive. Yes most are flat or slightly lower, but MOST are not projecting or relying on high growth, nor do they have a building excess of stock.
Hedge funds give exactly zero fucks about the oil industry. They can move billions of dollars around faster than you can post your entirely fact free trash.
Hint: just because you believe in toil fat hat conspiracies does not make them so. Your economic failure at life is your fault. Not the fault of dark and mysterious forces our to get you.
Hedge funds operate on formula and algorithm. You know exactly nothing about them and what you think you know is moronic.
When a single oil company can make 110billions in profits per year, they do care to get part of that money.....
All of those negative extrapolations.... you **do** realize that the average price of a new car is now over $34000 in the US, and tesla 3's are priced close to that? So, seems not that expensive. And how can 50,000-80,000 cars sold per quarter be saturating a market that sells 15 million cars and light trucks a year? (numbers pulled by googling generic phrases like 'average price cars usa' 'cars per year usa').
As for selling internationally, 79 million cars and light trucks are sold worldwide. (same - casual google search). So perhaps they're sensing softness in local markets, or perhaps they're just aware the world market is 5x as large as the US. Plenty of reasons (including technical) exist for going into other markets.
Full disclosure: I'm waffling on whether to buy a Tesla 3. But I'm an inveterate cheapskate that never buys new -- I haven't bought a new car since 1993.