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CIA predicts serious world-wide Y2K problems
Stradivarius writes "CNN has an interesting article about the CIA's prediction that there will be serious Y2K issues around the globe. "
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Gordon stressed: "We currently do not see a danger of unauthorized or inadvertent launch of ballistic missiles from any country due to Y2K problems."
Actually FEMA will suspend the constitution and declare martial law, paving the way for the UN to take over. You think I'm kidding? Be afraid....
I don't think that there are going to be to many
computer-related problems with Y2K. I think that
the real problems will be people. People flipping out,
overreacting, rioting - either party-wise, or
for the same collective flip-out that happened
in LA in 1993.
On top of all that, there will be National Guard
on the streets of many US cities. Expect people
to react negatively to what amounts to an occupying
army. Recent military exercises in Texas and planned
Guard exercises may be precursors to the 'clamp down' on our cities.
On the technical side, I think our biggest worry
should be screwed up financial systems. Lack of
electricity would suck, but it's survivable.
Of course, "cascading" effects could bring everything
to a screeching halt, but that seems unlikely. It'd
be really ironic if, after 40+ years of Cold War, we
were brought down by our own software...
Militarily, I expect the US to be on top of the
problem, but I worry about Russia, China and some of
the newer nuclear powers. This might tip Russia into
anarchy or back to communism (there have already
been revolts in their army), both of which would
suck majorly.
Personally, I'm going to be in the woods next New
Years, and I'm assembly a "bail out kit" in case
the feces hits the air moving device sometime before
then.
J05H- can't remember password...
I'm sick of hearing about the Y2k bug. There are a multitude of problems and "misinterpreting 2000 as 1900" is only one of them (and not really accurate at that).
Y2k is a boundary condition. All boundary conditions need checks. Furthermore it is a boundary condition a lot of programmers either didn't think of or thought they could ignore.
Also, date-processing, while not inherently difficult, is very error-prone due to vagueness and lack of standards. For instance, what day is "one month from" January 30? Is it February 28? March 2?
My father works on a small portion of the y2k problem for his department of the government. The major problems might be solve before then but not all.
U.S. Missles have little chips to check to see if they are ok. I good idea except if they cant be replaced they wont work. russia was too cheap and didn't do anything like this. Their missle should work. I'm not talking aboutnukes, they should ALL work.
As for DC. DC is so low tech that the y2k problem isn't much of a problem. Until recently National Airport used a computer with vacuum tubes.
FEMA Scares me.
I was a bit surprised to see CIA officials contributing to the already apprehensive atmosphere. A number of traders (relatively junior level, mind you) I know are concerned about what's going to happen this year, the basic fear being the gross overvaluation of the market and the realization that the upward tick cannot go on much longer. Y2k definitely plays into their calculations, regardless of whether it is a conscious fear or, as it is for some, the simple subconscious impact of seeing a "Y2k countdown" PHBs thought it might be a good idea to have on the trading floor. If the stock market falls -- the infamous "correction" -- we're all in for one hell of a beginning of millennium.
YAAC
Yes, but all of these disasters are localised. There is always a nearby area which is unaffected from which to launch rescue/repair operations. Y2K will be different in that it is global and systemic in nature. There may not be any unaffected areas. Think also about the environment in which people will be trying to fix problems. There may be power outages, oil shortages (due to refineries and shipping not being compliant), food distribution problems, telecoms problems, transportation problems, looting and disorder. Now imagine trying to fix problems under those circumstances. A lot depends on how well the infrastructure holds up.
"CNN has an interesting article about the CIA's prediction that there will be serious Y2K issues around the globe. "
Upgraded from mildly comical? An uncontrollable production of JuJuBees?
This is a highly technical place... next poll should definately be
Is Y2k:
1) a joke out of control
2) overstated in importance
3) understated in importance
4) the end of the world
or have we had this?
t0ast.
Not only was this drug-addled rubbish bumped up to one, it was bumped up to one each of FOUR TIMES it was posted.
Rob, level with us, are you TRYING to trash your own site and drive people away?
is I'm glad I have my "Y2K Bug Spray"! It's made from 99.746% "Concentrate of Y2KBS".
A local radio host out here in LA had a "guest" selling Y2K compatible jumper cables and gas additives which would help your car start on Jan 1, 2000... One of the funniest I've ever heard.
Ummmm... All of India? Including Bombay or New Delhi? You probably think everyone rides around on elephants over there too.
D'ont know what they make out of it, but it is utterly disgusting! I can hardly wait for the new year to get rid of it!
So what? 5000 dorks less on the planet...
If you lose the source for stuff you wrote a year ago with the hindsight of Y2K problems, then you're just a moron. Source code control systems are there for a reason. Control.
I just love it when they keep insisting that there won't be any accidental missle launches (except maybe at iraq). They always mention that there are at least 3 seperate places where human involvement is required for a missle to launch. It simple shows how little they understand Y2k. All that is required is a bug in the very final stage for the missle to launch (after the last human interaction).
The cia's main job is to report on what is happening in the rest of the world. In that article they were mentioning that US would probably be the least affected since they have spent the most effort on fixing Y2k. What they didn't include is the aspect that america has the most (aside from maybe Japan) systems that can go wrong. I'm sure countries like Iraq (bad example), India, Indonesia, North Korea, Most of Africa and most of South America, won't even be affected. Hell, most of those countries probably don't even have a Y2k problem. Y2k is the great equalizer ladies and gentlemen. And guess what, we are right in its path.
to something, more like, "Casper the Friendly Ghost" or is that too 'spooky'?
Wanna get the shit scared out of you? Visit http://www.cia.gov/cia/ciakids.
We've had it. The distribution was remarkably even across categories from "minor annoyance" to "big problem" to "total hype, no real problem". (I'm paraphrasing.) However, there were about 15%, if I recall correctly, who were actually afraid of a major social upheaval, and a few scary nuts talking about buying up guns and getting on the survivalist track. One of them was talking about loading up his SUV so he could head out with the wife and kids if there were food riots in the suburbs! What a moron. I think most people who plan like that actually want all Hell to break loose, like that gun-promoting anarchist Eric Raymond. Remember that quotation from his assessment of the Y2K situation? "The good news is that the IRS will not survive" (again, paraphrased from memory).
Here, the entire human race has contumplated the end of the world for ceturies. All kinds of theories have been out there, from GOD comming with hell fire,...to some massive disease.
:P
Wouldn't it be just funny as hell if it was some STUPID mistake made by a computer programmer, that launched every nuclear device in the world at 12 midnight on dec 31 1999????
I mean, Nostridamus probably wouldn't have considered that it would be because some dumnass couldn't concieve of the number 100 that the entire world would get utterly abolished....
Sometimes the simplist things will get yah. I just think it would be incredibly ironic.
Alright, whoever's pushing CNN should knock it off!
Now I live in Alberta (Canada), and I can walk the streets at night without worrying about getting shot. I couldn't say the same in L.A., where my sister was shot (not seriously) while we were out for a walk in a "nice" neighborhood. And, she had her gun with her (she's a cop). Helped a lot, yes? Now I live in a city with a murder rate about one-thirtieth of any major U.S. city. Must be the snow, couldn't have anything to do with the gun culture in the U.S. Nawwwwwwwwwwww.
What's more, the Canucks, while far from perfect, have rejected the governments right to decrypt private citizens' files... and they didn't even need to use guns to convince their legislators! But I forgot. Canada is where the UN is massing troops for a cross-border invasion. Silly me. Oh look, there's a black helicopter outside my window! Rats, it was just a crow.
I like to make Christian right wing fundamentalists too, but I usually leave a ":)" at the end.
Shows how little you know about launch systems.
;-)
In reality, the last stage is entirely human. There are electrical circuits, and some basic electronics to fire the rockets, but both the U.S. and Russia have systems that are as simple and robust as can be. This is so they can fire if the launch site has been hit by a pre-emptive EMP pulse to take out sensitive electronics and computers.
I have heard (more than 1 year ago), that the U.S., Russia, and China have all agreed to have observers stationed at various control centers, to ensure that no side tries to sneak attack the other. With these observers in place, launch systems can all be taken off 'fire on warning' status for the Y2K rollover (and a week on either side). Missile silos will also be opened, as the Russian military did during the last 2 coup attempts, so the spy satellites can confirm that most missiles are not being fueled up for launch.
I get the feeling that the CIA has been sidelined by the military in this, given their fuckups recently. This report seems to be just poorly directed public relations.
As for me, I'm going to be partying the night away at a barn out in the countryside with 250 other people.
This is despite an offer of $25,000 to be on a bank site for 3 days (72 hours straight) in case of problems. I have heard from a friend they are upping the contract to $35,000 because they have only 3 of the 10 required people signed up. Hmmm, if it reaches 50K, this could make me miss a party.
9/9/99 - A terminator for some programs
Do you have a source for this? I've heard it a couple times, but it has always sounded like complete bullshit.
9/9/99 - A terminator for some programs
This is wrong.. in any program worth its beans, the date would be written as 9/09/99.
Of course, what do I know.. never underestimate the stupidity of some people.
And the moment you do that, they'll bring out soldiers and shoot the protesters. You watch.
While DC is the murder capital of the world,
interestingly enough, guns are illegal to possess in the District.
Surprisingly enough, the Xfiles are right on the money about FEMA.
Posted by The Orge Captain:
hmm
as it would happen (and not by choice) I also live in alberta canada. It would seem though that your statments are verry general and not rooted in truth. It isnt fair or possible to compare the crime rate of any city in Alberta to any major city in the us because we have less people in this province than are in most major america cities. Also saying that we have a lower crime rate then any major us city is ignorant.
If you compare cities of equal size such as my own Lethbridge with 60,000 people to Boulder Colorado with 80,000 people even though it is bigger it has a fewer murder in 1995 or 6 bouldor had a 1 murder(and the national trend is for a drop in the murder rate) lethbridge wich is smaller has an average of 7 per year. We on average as a country have a lower rate of murder then the united states however this is due to the fact that it is impossible to get a handgun hear comparatively to the ease at wich one can be purchased in the united sates. If we were to make it as easy to get guns in canada we would probbilby end up with a comparble murder rate.
Now you can say that you can walk down the streets at night, well you can when you live in the suburbs would you walk down the streets of downtown calgary late at night?
Taking fredoms away is not the soloution to societys problems (Ask the communists how well that works) people will just find away to do what they want, most of the time causing more harm then they would if they were to just be allowed.
Wow the goverment cant decrypt or files ? They never could. If i want to cary a gun, smoke crack, or speed then I should be able to. These things are outlawed for the greater good of society (You call it an evil I call it population control) i think that we shouldnt outlaw these things, but increase the consequences for harming others then you will see results.
Im not an anarchist you see, my views on the world are just views i use them to see how I can crack the system so to speak. If you think your going to change anything then your setting yourself up for a big nasty surprise its basic human nature that is the problem not any matter of political policy or otherwise.
>Not only was this drug-addled rubbish bumped up to one
Everyone but ACs gets a 1 score by default, no moderators were involved.
Ooh, a sarcasm detector. Oh, that's a real useful invention.
It's always struck me as odd how someone could want to use Linux, then oppose gun ownership. Both stand for self reliance.
The police have no responsibility to protect you as an individual, just as proprietary software has no responsibility to fix individual bugs that cause your system to fail. The point is that if all else fails, you have the means to take care of yourself.
When there were riots in LA, the police stayed away from the area. The stores that *didn't* get looted were the ones with the owners sitting on the roofs w/ rifles. When the system fails, and chaos ensues (whenever there's a 'state of emergency', looters tend to come out of the woodwork), having a means of protecting yourself is vital.
The major Y2K disasters will be induced by people, not machines (at least in this country). If the power goes out in parts of China and all of India, the natives will say "so whats new?".
It will be little things, like non-Y2K compliant date codes and inventory/shipping software used by food packagers and distributors, that will cause many small problems.
Whats the expiration date of your Milk? Is the date printed with 4 digits? Now, check the barcode - is it coded in 4 digits or did some programming dweeb code the barcode in 2 digits and print the human readable version with 19%d ???? I've seen this done on boxes of meat. A few stupid mistakes in the distribution chain and you've got 5000 people with food poisoning.
Oh yeah... all of a sudden the spooks are credible public experts on techology issues. Is it just me, or is it really suspicious for a group that thrives on disorder and disruption to be peddling more crap scare-stories to the ignorant public? CIA + FEMA + y2k = ... you do the math.
OK, if you know
NewsTrolls
you know I've been covering every aspect of Y2K info and news since we began and before that in HotWired Threads...
YES, there's a LOT of BS...especially when it's put out by a consulting company that really just wants to farm out their consultants to you.
BUT...no one, AND I MEAN NO ONE knows to what extent embedded chips and software programs may fail. Remediation and certification consists of patching, changing the date, taking a screen shot of the result and faxing it to whomever in the company as proof of compliance. Do you think every ramification of a program has been thought about and tested? And then we have programs which are "updated" by the users which then go back into testing... Combine that with people testing who only know how to test, not how the software/database/mainframe they're testing works, and I can say with assurance there are going to be problems overlooked.
But panic? No.
Look at it this way. What would be the type of daily-life preparation you'd have to do if at the same time you were preparing for a blizzard, a hurricane, and a 2 month trip into deepest Africa?
Whatever you'd do for that scenario, do for Y2K.
Where will I be? NYC with all the rest of the Wall Street geeks. As a matter of fact, I'm looking forward to it as all the major firms are shipping in their best techies from all around the country to be here in NYC for the date change to keep the economic infrastructure going. If nothing happens it's going to be the biggest geek-fest New Years party ever...
--diva
diva Pasty Drone NewsTrolls, Inc.
I See...Problems! Problems Related to anything but computers. It's funny to watch those people acting if it is the end of the world...Well, they are the CIA, they make their living with things like this...
how bad it's going to be. I saw a Y2K page on my banks website claiming they would be Y2K compliant by 1 Jan 1999. Emailed them about it and got no response. Sent another (somewhat nasty) email and got a response saying that their 'internal' systems were Y2K compliant but they wouldn't be fully Y2K compliant until July. This morning I thought to myself, hell our Win NT machines don't even have reliable connections to out Netware server, we don't even have a reliable filesystem. I bet other firms are the same, how badly can Y2K bugs hurt us? Others days I fell like being far, very far from the big city come 1 Jan.
Turn off X-files and go outside.
I didn't see anything new in this article except the CIA/CNN is pretty damn slow in reporting.
Setting up your excuses in advance.
Stupid people will be persecuted to the fullest extent allowed by law.
I'm afraid of paranoid nuts like you.
That's why I'm an athiest and a liberal and not a gun owner. It's also why I use Linux. All of these things take a brain.
If tits were wings it'd be flying around.
Oh yeah, I'm taking their word for it. These are the same people who made the world safe for democracy by installing dictators and death squads. I wouldn't trust their predictions for a football game much less the Year 2000 problem. A monkey with a typewriter could produce more accurate predictions than that bunch of icompetent malicious spooks. Consider that the people they pay for information get paid on the basis of the alarmist information they spread. This is like asking Hitler to chair a human rights commission in Kosovo. What a bunch of wankers!
Go figure.
Don't records somehow account for these people born before 1900? There are still people born before 1900 living. So I don't think everyone will spontaneously combust after midnight 2000.
Now here's a big problem. By some miracle my mortgage payments were calculated correctly and my payment schedules are accurate. How can this be possible?
My only conclusion is that Y2K has already been dealt with for many important issues. I think the biggest issue is the users/operators. I have software at work that only usees two-digits. But I can deal with that, by checking my results.
~afniv
"Man könnte froh sein, wenn die Luft so rein wäre wie das Bier"
"We could be happy if the air was as pure as the beer"
~afniv
"Man könnte froh sein, wenn die Luft so rein wäre wie das Bier"
Richard von Weizs
> "Rest assured, although there will be increasing
> unpredictability and some degradation in some
> systems, the armed forces will be ready to
> ensure national security before, on and after
> the Year 2000," Hamre said.
>There is another date earlier that I can't remember.
A few weeks ago the airlines & hotels started acceping reservations for 1/1/2000. From what I heard there were absoloutly no problems with it, so things are gooking good for the big Y2K.
--
sharkyfour.com
All the pols in DC, from Clinton to Lott to
almost all of 'em, are beating the drums for
another big military buildup right now. So
now that they can't have the annual sightings
of Russky warships off the east coast when the
defense budget gets taken up in Congress, we
have this instead.
Otherwise, old, old news.
signed,
member of Portland Year 2000 Ready Group since 9/97
--------
Bill Gates Is My Evil Twin.
The Truth
When looking to future, we look to the past to lead us to the future. In 1929 we had a stock market crash, FACT. Now we find our selves looking upon another problem in our society called y2k. Some groups of people have taken extreme measures in dealing with y2k adding to the problem. More and more people are starting to see that the real problem is in people and there ability to deal with a change in situation. In 1929 after the stock market crash, the real crash occurred that threw the world in to the Great Depression. People pulled the money from the banks and started a global economic collapse that spawned Hitler and WWII.
More Fact. 1999 Australia and the USA are producing billions of dollars Extra Currency in preparation of Y2k. (CNN) And of course the Canadian and US Marshal Law plans. SCARY FACTS. And the WORLDS FOOD SUPPLY............
Now we come to 1999, and we as a race seem to regard a new millenium as a major change, instilling fear in some, FACT. Western Civilization approximately 1000ad. GREAT FACT. That's a awful lot of smoke for no fire. (Pun Intended). The Wonderful Cults at work. (See Disclaimer). Another Pun
Only Opinion I have
It's a lot of wasted energy. If we put as much in to making peace instead of war, panics like these, cults and ourselves and instead focus on the Race (HUMAN). We would have probably colonized half the solar system by now. "Got Of the Mud Ball" Only Opion I will give. We have wasted our selves bombing countries where all we care about is the oil while letting another starve because of it government in our side of the mud ball and traded with one in the other. WE ARE FUCKED. No Not By China or any other country but by our own stupidly. Its time to unify and get off the mud ball. Please? (See Disclaimer).
Back to the Fact
Now lets look at probilty. Before the Challenger Accident NASA put the odds at 1 in 100,000. After the Shuttle crashed the odds dropped to 1 in 123, ( I believe this is the figure or close to it, www.Nukefix.org was down). INTERSTING FACT. Now were back to good old y2k. A possible crash that could be as sever as The Great Depression. Not From the Crash but from the People. Now Factor in all the variables I've named
The Odds are there for a lot of Devastating Possibilities. Random Chance....
Isolation the SlapHappyHacker
"problems are everywhere, this is just one"
Disclaimer
I will leave off any mention of USA NATO THE EU CIS UN or any other Sovran nation so I wont get branded a millenium cults or anarchist. I HAVE NO HARM INTEANDED TO ANYONE. 1St BABY. And of course if anything I say in here is wrong, HEY FREE SPEACH, its Hard to Remember everything from 17 years. (See Below) Anything that doesn't harm anyone I clam under the Church of Recurrent Tragedy's. 1st and 2nd I am a 17-year-old punk kid that cant die for my country and will (not by my choice) if it doesn't change soon. I'm a citizen of the planet. Note To G. Carlen yes this constitutes a tragedy if it works. "Welcome to the Fucking Fractal baby." "Your Clock is skewed". "Oh Yeah, Well the math is wrong". Don't brand me as nuts I still have a long life left I hope (See First Sentence).
Bibliography
The InterNet
The Bible
Zen and other Religions
Life
The Media
Drugs
Linux
Lots of Drugs
Lack of Sex
And NOT SCHOOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
Free Unix? Free Windows. http://www.reactos.com
e-mail me at slaphappy_@hotmail.com if you agree
Free Unix? Free Windows. http://www.reactos.com
The Truth
When looking to future, we look to the past to lead us to the future. In 1929 we had a stock market crash, FACT. Now we find our selves looking upon another problem in our society called y2k. Some groups of people have taken extreme measures in dealing with y2k adding to the problem. More and more people are starting to see that the real problem is in people and there ability to deal with a change in situation. In 1929 after the stock market crash, the real crash occurred that threw the world in to the Great Depression. People pulled the money from the banks and started a global economic collapse that spawned Hitler and WWII.
More Fact. 1999 Australia and the USA are producing billions of dollars Extra Currency in preparation of Y2k. (CNN) And of course the Canadian and US Marshal Law plans. SCARY FACTS. And the WORLDS FOOD SUPPLY............
Now we come to 1999, and we as a race seem to regard a new millenium as a major change, instilling fear in some, FACT. Western Civilization approximately 1000ad. GREAT FACT. That's a awful lot of smoke for no fire. (Pun Intended). The Wonderful Cults at work. (See Disclaimer). Another Pun
Only Opinion I have
It's a lot of wasted energy. If we put as much in to making peace instead of war, panics like these, cults and ourselves and instead focus on the Race (HUMAN). We would have probably colonized half the solar system by now. "Got Of the Mud Ball" Only Opion I will give. We have wasted our selves bombing countries where all we care about is the oil while letting another starve because of it government in our side of the mud ball and traded with one in the other. WE ARE FUCKED. No Not By China or any other country but by our own stupidly. Its time to unify and get off the mud ball. Please? (See Disclaimer).
Back to the Fact
Now lets look at probilty. Before the Challenger Accident NASA put the odds at 1 in 100,000. After the Shuttle crashed the odds dropped to 1 in 123, ( I believe this is the figure or close to it, www.Nukefix.org was down). INTERSTING FACT. Now were back to good old y2k. A possible crash that could be as sever as The Great Depression. Not From the Crash but from the People. Now Factor in all the variables I've named
The Odds are there for a lot of Devastating Possibilities. Random Chance....
Isolation the SlapHappyHacker
"problems are everywhere, this is just one"
Disclaimer
I will leave off any mention of USA NATO THE EU CIS UN or any other Sovran nation so I wont get branded a millenium cults or anarchist. I HAVE NO HARM INTEANDED TO ANYONE. 1St BABY. And of course if anything I say in here is wrong, HEY FREE SPEACH, its Hard to Remember everything from 17 years. (See Below) Anything that doesn't harm anyone I clam under the Church of Recurrent Tragedy's. 1st and 2nd I am a 17-year-old punk kid that cant die for my country and will (not by my choice) if it doesn't change soon. I'm a citizen of the planet. Note To G. Carlen yes this constitutes a tragedy if it works. "Welcome to the Fucking Fractal baby." "Your Clock is skewed". "Oh Yeah, Well the math is wrong". Don't brand me as nuts I still have a long life left I hope (See First Sentence).
Bibliography
The InterNet
The Bible
Zen and other Religions
Life
The Media
Drugs
Linux
Lots of Drugs
Lack of Sex
And NOT SCHOOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
if you think I'm right e-mail me @ slaphappy_@hotmail.com
Free Unix? Free Windows. http://www.reactos.com
yes 95 does suck and i dont like the drugs but the drugs like me
Free Unix? Free Windows. http://www.reactos.com
The funny thing is that he said we don't need to worry about accidental launchings, but watch out if you live near a silo becaus they're a bit worried about what will happen to the missiles while they're still on the ground!
But then again, I could be wrong.
am i thinking of a new movie plot...
From what I've seen, in great disasters that take place throughout the world, human innovation and energy can correct many problems in a short amount of time. I agree, however, that the threat of people "flipping out" and joining some sort of mass hysteria may be more of a problem. We seem to be good at fixing many things, except ourselves.
I fail to see how Nuclear Reactors missles rely on a correct date to funcion properly. Can anybody explain this to me?
"There are no cool guys in musicals." -- Coach McGuirk
Makes sense, thanks for answering my question. It still seems like a trivial problem. Sure, it's important to fix but it's not the end of the world by a long shot.
"There are no cool guys in musicals." -- Coach McGuirk
I don't remember where I found this site - might have been here, but check out
http://www.duh-2000.com/
.. for piles of Yk2-compliant humor (the Y2k-ready bread slicer wins my vote).
/rs
Too many people believe the Constitution is valid... but most of those people would willingly give it up to get a little bit of security from the Man. Bill Clinton himself has said that we "need" to give up our basic freedoms in the face of new threats to our security. And look what's happening. If there were no support for this Constitution of ours, what's the point of establishing martial law in the first place?