Slashdot Mirror
Y2K and Nuclear Weapons
Deepak Saxena writes "The Nation(an ultra-leftist political news rag) has a very informative article on Y2K and the affect on nuclear power and weapons. Until I read this article, I was like "Y2K, so what?" This article really made me start thinking about the possibilities of what might happen. "
What scares me is that if I program my VCR on 12/28/99 to record the Beverly Hillbillies on 1/3/00, it might think that it doesn't come on for another hundred years!
No really.
Not because I really really want to watch the Beverly Hillbillies but because there are so many little things that we just won't think about...
Oh yea and I'm taking all my money out of the bank because I'm afraid that everyone else is afraid that everyone else will take their money out of the bank and there won't be enough to go around.
Huh? No that's right.
I predict a lot of people are going to waste a lot of money preparing for Y2K. Anyone want to start a business?
Wow! Some time related bug similar to the "Y2K" problem just hit SlashDot! I havn't quite figured out what could be causing it but it's making stuff from the past get reposted. I don't know what this will lead to but as a sidenote whoever wrote the above must have been a prophet.
First, I can believe that a "smart" missle might deduce, "Hey, I haven't seen anyone try to communicate with me for a long time (100 years). The base must've been destroyed by an enemy attack. Launch!"
It's unlikely. But you want to know what's really scary?
What's to prevent the Russians or Chinese (or Americans!) from DELIBERATELY launching several nukes on The Day and then saying "Whoops... must've been malfunctioning software"?? Hmm, maybe Y2K is going to be much more "interesting" than anyone had planned!
Once again, we see that the computer problems are insignificant compared to the panicky or scheming reactions of the humans using them.
How many times did people dispute the possibility of a nuclear attack throught the 1980s and early 1990s to stop funding SDI. I guess there's nothing left to do now but hope nothing happens. Otherwise, what's there to do? Kind of makes SDI proponents look like forward thinking folks.
It sucks when you can't defend yourself, doesn't it?
If you think you can protect yourself from a warhead that is carrying a bomb with enough energy to make a mushroom cloud 100 miles tall as well as wide, I suggest that you actually talk to somebody that has worked on the project.
The problem with SDI is that it doesn't work. Why? Let's say I'm some lunatic bent on lauching a nuclear weapon at the United States. I know that the United States has this thing called a patriot missle that can hit any missle that comes in at a straight trajectory. Using my brain, I decide the best way to foil the the system is to make my missle wobble by making the fins of the missle constantly change their position upon re-entry to the atmosphere - after all I only need to get within 10 miles or so to annhilate all of NYC plus the missle is comming in at say, mach 2. Try hitting that.
A patriot missle can't (and didn't in the Iraq "war") even hit a SCUD which is more or less a giant catapault, you think it could hit something designed a little more recently with the patriot in mind? SDI was nothing more than a copy of the WWII realization that if you start preparing for war the economy takes off, and lo and behold, it did. The aim of SDI was never to make a working system, it was stimulate the economy in the same way all war preperations do.
look at the post above ("simply fascinating")... i read it, and it got me thinking.
what if china uses this bug as an excuse to launch some missiles. can you really say china is not going to do this.
think about it...
"The rockets are launched by hand after a order is given via the normal (radio/etc.) channels by superiors. The only computers used are antient ones that contain about 108k worth of code, a couple of weeks work. They do not give any orders, there has never been enough rescources to create a computer network to the launch sites." (ok sic, but that's the jest of it)
A russian party on 1-1-2000 (cnn is to be seen on an aging color tv):
leader type"he, vladimir, i just got a call from the kremlin, you have to go and launch the missile"
vlad:"Yeah right, cnn has nothing, here have another vodka"
Later:
vlad and his super are walking drunk to the missile silo" let's show those amarikanskis, it was all there fault, hickup!!"
vlad, taking about half an hour to get the key in its slot, turns the key.... nothing happens....
"stupid russian stuff , never works..."
Later on cnn:
Ancor person "latest on the nuclear disaster in a russian military camp, the y2k bug has struck!"
Did anyone notice that the article is dated March 15, 1999? As I am writing this, my system's clock shows Mon Mar 8 16:18:23 MET 1999
A missle with its blast cover off is a very ... if a missle launches with the blast cover in place...
vunerable item - most of the body is relatively
thin sheet metal... so you station troops
about 100-200 yds. away from the silo or even set up remote controlled machine guns - if the thing
launches - the missle rises slowly for the
first few seconds - blast away - just one
.50 caliber bullet through the main tank will
prevent it from reaching the target - for real
motivation - station russian troops to watch
the US silos, and US troops to watch the russian
silos... or how about just totally disabling
the mechanism which rolls back the blast cover -
there are several ways to do this - like parking
a couple of tanks in the way, or cutting the
power... on submarines - a little welding work
on the hatch covers- and call them into port
for the other guys to watch
...doesn't mean that its *NOT* Y2K compliant! People, listen, the *VAST MAJORITY* of things that
have ic's in them don't have a clock. These particular chips are not going to blow up when it rolls to '00...
You didn't see any ultra-left content because you are ultra-left.
The right way to take down an ICBM is before reentry. It is almost easy in fact.
During and after reentry it gets harder, but is still a completely reasonable task. Moscow was protected. People in the US are just too panicy to deal with the issues. We could protect ourselves, no problem.
People like you resemble deer caught in headlights.
A patriot missle can't (and didn't in the Iraq "war") even hit a SCUD which is more or less a giant catapault, you think it could hit something designed a little more recently with the patriot in mind?
And even beyond the ballistics problems involved, there are the software engineering issues. I heard from a CS professor that SDI would have required upwards of 50 million lines of code. By the way, that's multithreaded realtime code that would have been effectively impossible to test even once. It would have been the largest, most complex, utterly untestable software application in history. If you think Windows 2000's 25 million lines is going to be buggy... you do the math.
A few programmers of extreme hubris might have been deluded enough to believe SDI would have worked. However, sane computer scientists the world over knew perfectly well that SDI was a great boondoggle, mostly useful for psychological comfort but otherwise a waste of time. The high-tech 80's equivalent of the "nuclear preparedness drills" that they used to have in elementary schools thirty years ago.
~k.lee
No, the reasons SDI was abandoned is that it would
never work. Ultimately, buying into SDI was buying
into an impossible pipe dream, that technology
could somehow protect us from 35,000 H-nukes. This
false confidence could be more destructive than
the previous strategy, ``Mutually assured
destruction''.
Thank goodness for the end of the cold war.
And what if the SDI was coded by the same ADA-
programming geniuses who gave us the Y2K mess,
Patriots that don't work, missile warnings set off
by flocks of geese, and Navy ships running Windows
NT?
Even if the bomb had a clock, how accurate could it be?
Someone should send an archive of human history (and the Y2K stuff) to space (again), in case the Y2K nuclear war party actually happens and wipes out everything -- you know, it could happen on 1/1/00 or maybe ~50 years later, or maybe tomorrow. I just wonder whether whoever later find that archive will be able to translate it into their language...
Duh, it's not the launch controls that are the problem, it's the early warning and control systems. If the Russian early warning system goes down on Jan 1st, or starts showing American missiles on course for Russia (failures in US software have caused false attack warnings before), then will they decide to launch or will they wait it out and see if Moscow is really destroyed?
If the superiors order them launched they will be launched. If the superiors think that the US is taking advantage of Y2K to launch a surprise attack, they will order the missiles launched.
Get it now?
From the article: "The US military faces a daunting challenge, for it is dealing with the largest interconnected computer network in the world, with 1.5 million computers and 28,000 automated systems. It utilizes more than seventy different computer languages, some of them so obscure there is no one alive who can even read them."
Anyone know what these unknown computer programming languages are? Sounds like the writer is thinking of Kvikkalkul, the secret programming language of the Swedish navy.
brilliant!
;)
it's simple, cheap and effective. of course that means it'll never happen... oh well
They won't do it because we'll retaliate... or just say, woops we missed one system, too.
But, honestly. Why the hell would you need the year to determine a nuclear launch function? They might have the year in the event-logging software, just for reference, but they don't need a year for anything else.
Hell, even if they did need the year, and the systen wasn't up to snuff... why the hell don't they just set thier damn clocks back 10 years.
I got my newest VCR three years ago and decided to test it for Y2K last month. It works. In fact the maximum date is like 2032.
That the USA signed a Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty in 1972 which makes projects like SDI illegal.
Really sucks that Clinton and the Congress insist on unconstitutionally pursuing this crap.
...you'd better be sure you know what you're talking about.
.00006 gm. So, assuming you weigh about 150 pounds (~68 kg) get bone cancer by inhaling 5.7 x 10e-9 grams of plutonium.
The Cassinni problem was never detonation. If it re-enters the atmosphere the wrong way (if it burns up) the plutonium in it will be vaporized into fine particles and potentially spread over a large area.
Even smallest amount of inhaled plutonium is *very bad* for you. Studies on dogs have shown that 1,400 pCi of plutionium per kilogram of body weight (exposed in one day) caused bone cancer after 4 years. A pCi (picocurie) is on billionth of a mCi. One mCi of of plutonium 238 weighs
Cassinni is carrying 27kg of plutonium 238.
Of course, NASA claims this will never happen.
they have a dead-tree version of their website. this will be going into their magazine. nice try, though.
And can you honestly say that there aren't aliens on Mars, mounting an attack against the planet Earth as we speak?
/could/ do. It's lots of fun to read about what some people think might, just possibly, happen. I would rather have them say just /what/ would have to happen for the nukes to be fired, how easy/difficult it /actually/ is, not just how easy it could be. But that's all top secret anyway.
Or even more down home, can you really say that the United States government won't just fire it's nukes at places in the States it doesn't want anymore, and just say it was the Russians?
Or Heck, maybe the Canadians will attack us while Y2K is causing a bunch of trouble!
That's what gets me about these articles on Y2K and what it
.signature not found! reformat hard drive? [Yn]
The economy is not shaky because people are choosing to take their money out of bank accounts, it's shaky because the government and banks have created a system where having people take their money out of their bank accounts will make the economy collapse. That's the government's problem, not mine.
Government has introduced numerous single-point failures into the economy; they are now rushing around like headless chickens because, as was inevitable, it looks that some or all of those failures are going to come about.
Roll on the end of bureaucratic dumbocracy, I say.
(And I for one will be taking all my remaining money out of my bank account by the end of the summer).
I'll grant you that the world won't end or suffer nuclear meltdowns come Y2K. The uncertainty needs to be met with a little more faith (not necessarily religion, just faith...)
But, c'mon, you actually believe CNN? These are the same bastards who think that UNLV won the NCAA basketball title in 1991, and reported such in a story about this year's Duke team, no less. I cannot accept the word of a source that clearly has forgotten the concept of fact-checking.
(For those who don't know, UNLV clobbered Duke in the 1990 NCAA Final. They met again in the 1991 semifinal, and Duke won by 2. Duke went on to win the NCAA Final against Kansas two days later.)
Dacxjo? Cxu tio estas vi?
:)
Bonvenon al slashdot, amiko
-ecxjo
He provides it free of charge.
I do, however, suggest that he not quit his day job.
...this is a little much.
I especially like the line:
"Recent statements from the US power industry claiming that the risk of a power grid failure is "not as serious" as first feared and "can be fixed in time" have been viewed with skepticism by critics."
Well, duh. That would be why they call them 'critics.'
The fact that the earth is roughly spherical has been viewd with skepticism by critics, too.
--Adam Lang
SDI was the last chip that forced the Soviet Union
into bankruptcy. SDI wasn't about technology or
self defence, but about politics and economics. You can only build so many missles, ships, stealth fighters, ICBMs, Submarines, MIRVs, B1 bombers and B2 bombers. Reagen had to raise the spending bar substantially and SDI was the biggest chip he could find for the Cold War poker game, and it worked.
Remember the the ICBM missle system that was to be burried and mobile, so the silos could not be targeted, not nearly as sexy as star wars.
I agree with the analysis I saw recently (in AIR?) which said that, no, our complex technological society will not be brought crashing to a halt because of Y2K, or any other computer bug, for that matter. Why? Because things don't work all that well anyway. Hey, with MS-Win crashing every few days, who will notice one more per millineum?
I agree that you don't, look at Quebec ( a province in Canada ) that had severe if not total blackouts for upto 3 weeks, due to Ice storms, in the the middle of winter. 5 Million people didn't parish, they didn't loot and they didn't panic. The buckled down and helped one another and the made it through. Yes there was help from out side, but they managed. I just can't see the same thing happening in North America, to the extent that people are predicting.
Just look at the Huricane disruptions in Florida and Louisanna, the world didn't come to a halt. People pulled together and stuck it out, maybe I'm and optimist, but if you think so little of your neighbour, why do you live where you do ( exceptions can be made for NY, LA, and DC )?
You know, China solved its year 2K problems with its airlines by having the executives of all the airlines in the air in their own planes on Midnight of the year 2000. Why doesn't Clinton go over to Moscow, and good old Boris Yeltzin visit Washington on the fateful night?
Of course, with the way the Russians feel about their president, maybe that would make things worse...
FYI:
Yesterday (Sunday, 8 march) Ontario Hydro rolled the clocks forward to Y2K on a power grid that serves part of the Greater Toronto area to do a live test of their setup.
The lights (and heat) stayed on.
Believe me, it sucks to live in Canada without power for the first few weeks of January (the ice storm of Jan 1998 bit!)
In History every major civilization finished within a certain time. Sumerians, Greeks, Romans...
So you thought the American/Western one would stay
here for ever?
Many large projects "invent" computer languages to get something done. Even something as simple as the harmless storage management software I work on has a simple scripting language we write our web server with. Having spoken with a few ex-Raytheon employees, many of their older systems were written in at least 3 to 5 languages, any number of which were "made up" by the project, and aren't known by anyone except the original team members, who could be who-knows-where.
Of course, this has nothing to do with this thread at all, but hey.
-Anonymous Coward-
General Electric, etc, control the Nuclear
Regulatory Commission. Check out books like
'Aunt Carrie's War against Black Fox Nuclear Power plant'
etc, you can see whose opinion the NRC cares
more about, the citizens or the nuclear corporations.
listening to americans talk about how bad china
is for taking over tibet etc is kind of sad.
anyone remember the other country that tried to expand its land
when there were already people living there? the US 'war hero' general Sherman spent years
by going around destroying indians food supply in order to starve them to death so they would move out.
then there are the modern US corporations which go into any country they want and pretty much dictate how things
will work with everything from telecom to oil drilling.
not that other countries wont bully the us if they didnt have the chance. but the US aint no angel.
So FREAKING WHAT? The patriot, although a complete flop, was the most successful item to come out of SDI, it was part of SDI you do know.
I'm sorry, I forgot how much more practical and reasonable and EASIER it would have been to be using the PARTICLE BEAMS and LASERS that SDI was calling for. THOSE would have WORKED!!
The right way to take down an ICBM is before reentry. It is almost easy in fact.
The right way is not to use the fucking things in the first place. There is no goddamn fucking defense, stupid. If we go to world war 3 that's it. End of story. There isn't any way to win, fuck head. Is any of this getting through? Do you understand that we aren't living in some sort of fantasy Star Trek world and that nuclear armegeddon would be the result of a full scale nuclear exchange? Even if you managed to blow up the fucking missles, the radiation would be designed to disperse, that's what I would do if I was Joe FuckingNutCase World Leader. 1 lb of plutonium is more than enough to kill every person in NYC by just dumping it in the water supply. You think a missle being destroyed in midair is going to safely contain the plutonium warhead attached to it???
During and after reentry it gets harder, but is still a completely reasonable task. Moscow was protected. People in the US are just too panicy to deal with the issues. We could protect ourselves, no problem.
You are such fucking moron. Panicky? Idiot. If somebody wants to blow you up, they will. Didn't the world trade center tell you something? How about that little Oklahoma thing using FERTILIZER and some paranoid lunatic?? It's a hell of a lot easier to set off a bomb than protect yourself from it.
People like you resemble deer caught in headlights.
Oh yes. You're the type of people that think that it's completely reasonable to take out a missle at mach 2 going over 1000 miles an hour, when low earth orbit is 100 miles up. That's just plenty of fucking time to get out ye old ray gun and save the blessed USA from those evil commies!
Get. A. Clue.
1. modifying the blast door covers...
this would keep the nuclear missile from firing. thus you have one country with all its missiles unable to fire
but the other country could have 'secret' silos it didnt 'fix' closed. (a la dr strangelove scenario?) , thus no countrys military would voluntarily disable all its nuclear
2. machine gun. probably many folks would not find the 'machine gun from a couple dozen yards'
method to be of the necessary reliability level. in addition to a 'total miss' or a 'hit with no damage' another problem might be
'halfway damage' so that the missile goes off course a bit and slams into 51st and elm street of the nearest city,
destroying a couple blocks with explosion of propulsion fuel, and perhaps raining down radioactive material from the disintegrated warhead onto the populace as well. this would be particularly
lovely if it happened over a drinking water supply.
However, sane computer scientists the world over knew perfectly well that SDI was a great boondoggle
Correction.
Every scientist knew it was impossible, but hey, free grant money. I would have taken it too, and it did stimulate the economy, a fact I can't deny leftist as I may be in some (but not all) ways.
'comrade zhu isnt obeying me enough, send him
on a deadly plane ride but make up some hype
about y2k, even those stupid yanks will believe
a cover story like that'
So the author believes that because of Y2K issues in the nuclear weapon command and control structure, the missiles will launch. But he doesn't seem to feel that these missiles, with their on-board computer guidance systems, will have any problem hitting their targets. Hmmm... (Maybe the onboard systems will wake up, read the date as 1/1/00, decide that they haven't been invented yet, and shut down...)
Also, I own a diesel engine, and I can't find a computer in it anywhere. Last time I checked diesels had about as much need for a CPU as a fork.
The blast doors are propelled basically with TNT. It would take a hell of a lot of tanks to prevent this from happening.
rodent...
That the USA signed a Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty in 1972 which makes projects like SDI illegal.
Really sucks that Clinton and the Congress insist on unconstitutionally pursuing this crap.
Oh? And which constitutional amendement or Bill of Right is being violated for making a treaty with a foreign nation there, Sparky? The right to bear arms?
I would just like to warn all of the people of this site about the threat of the Canadians. I am in charge of an elite fighting force of Canadians, and we plan to invade and conquer on January 1, 2000. Since none of our high tech weapons will work, we have regressed to using Y2K compliant rifles. If you value your lives, I suggest that you all evacuate the country before January 1, for we as ruthless Canadians will slay all those who oppose us. FEAR US
1 lb of plutonium is more than enough to kill every person in NYC by just dumping it in the water supply.
That's false. You shouldn't rely on Ralph Nader for science. Just like y2k, the toxicity of plutonium is over-hyped. Caffeine is as poisonous than plutonium. http://www.powerup.com.au/~dominion/ff/p22.htm
...you'd better be sure you know what you're talking about.
The Cassinni problem was never detonation. If it re-enters the atmosphere the wrong way (if it burns up) the plutonium in
it will be vaporized into fine particles and potentially spread over a large area.
Even smallest amount of inhaled plutonium is *very bad* for you. Studies on dogs have shown that 1,400 pCi of
plutionium per kilogram of body weight (exposed in one day) caused bone cancer after 4 years. A pCi (picocurie) is on
billionth of a mCi. One mCi of of plutonium 238 weighs
get bone cancer by inhaling 5.7 x 10e-9 grams of plutonium.
Cassinni is carrying 27kg of plutonium 238.
Of course, NASA claims this will never happen.
Post some references for this info. The toxicity of plutonium is overrated. Check out http://www.powerup.com.au/~dominion/ff/p22.htm.
It's not the atom that will kill you, it's the decay of the atom that will kill you. Plutonium isn't a natural element, and never existed on this earth before humanity created it. Nor is stronium.
Eat a teaspoon.
Which astro-turf, I mean, political action comitee do you work for? Who pays your bills? GE?
Although extremely rare, it has been discovered
in natural uranium-rich areas of the earth.
Plutonium is not highly radioactive even!
Many natural elements are worse.
Strontium is particularly bad because the body
uses it just like calcium. It becomes part of
your bones. Plutonium doesn't do that.
The patriot was quite successful. It was not perfect. Humans do not achieve perfection. (Even if Miami blows up, I want to save Boston)
Particle beams and lazers work quite well. No, you can't have a portable one for your pocket. Serious beam weapons are truck-sized at least, and they draw megawatts of power. This is not an unreasonable obstacle.
Obviously it is best to not have people launch nuclear weapons. To ignore the possibility is to ignore human nature. Sorry, but it will happen. Our choice: some people die or many people die.
If 100 warheads are launched and SDI has a 98% kill rate, we only get hit by 2 warheads. We lose 2 cities and some (not all) of the people living in the suburbs.
1000 miles/hour is nothing serious. We often shoot down planes and cruise missles going that fast. Being 100 miles up only gives us more time.
All you do is launch a dummy missle. We have
done this, and we can knock them down.
The NRC is a self-serving government agency.
They cause all sorts of problems for the
power industry.
Without them, we could stop killing people
with the smoke from coal power plants.
Like France, we could be 70% nuclear.
Our air would be cleaner and acid rain would
be reduced.
It's not my fault that nuclear power is the cleanest practical source.
Well, the DOD claims that representatives of - among others - Russia will be physically present in the US control rooms during new years eve to ensure that everyone knows whats going on.
The threat of the doomsday device is probably nothing, since there has been occations when the Russian missile command has been without electricity, effectively cutting out all communications ( the ups didnt work either..).
Not entirely true. There IS a GPS
rollover bug. check out http://www.sustainableworld.com/y2kgps/gpseng/
No, you did not read the article. the danger is that the cooling system will fail because of a lack of backup power. This caused a problem recently at Seabrook, when the backup diesel system failed to work because the furnace room got too cold.
RTF article before you spout off.
slowtech - lost his password
No. Study legal stuff. Russia has taken ALL agreements of the USSR, and that was ack'ed by all countries including US, in other words inherited, got it?
Besides the legal things, there is one more.
Who the _fuck_ cares about your legal explanation when you build system in States which supposedely will change balance of power completely, allowing US destroy every country and not being hit???
Now, for those "optimists" who may think SDI will save US or whatever. Some scientists in old 1970th in the URSS made calculations, which state that if URSS will explode ALL or most nuclear warhears right above the URSS, all you guys out there will die in next 1-2 years from radiation, starvation and madness. The Earth is one big eco-system, by destroying URSS with mass attack you will die too.
That the only reason why even idiots from US Army and Admin preffered to deal with URSS.
thanks God we can live.
China *do* have missiles able to reach States. Otherwise States wouldn't bother at all. Obviously those missiles are SS babies donated by former USRR with new truly Chinese names.
I just fluttered over. Hrm..Y2K overhyped, underhyped? I've been reading Y2K articles for quite some time now (thanks mainly to year2000.com's new clipping section) and still am unable to determine whether the POV the media has taken with Y2K. In short, I don't think they know how to handle the story.
I know we've heard quite abit about Europe, Canada, Russsia, India, and the U.S...but how come finding an article about ANY OTHER country (japan, vietnam, HongKong, china: status reports)is like trying to find that elusive mp3?
Is it because those countries are actually prepared for Y2K and just felt the need not to go public? Maybe there's a Y2K monkey out there who knows for sure.
If anyone does have that info, mail me at enkanica@laf.cioe.com
-danke
government won't just fire it's nukes at places in the States it
doesn't want anymore, and just say it was the Russians?
Ohh, the agony of choice...
I'd have to choose:
Seriously though, you'd think they would've taken all the y2k nonsense into account when designing a friggin nuclear weapon..
linuxonline.org
"There is a small, finite risk that this could lead to an accidental nuclear war."
A "small, finite risk" is scientist-speak for, "Theoretically, it's possible, but it ain't gonna happen."
"Of course, NASA claims this will never happen"
Something none of the Cassini protestors seem to have noticed is that in space, all objects obey Newtonian meechanics perfectly (at typical sppeds of course.) Therefore, any malfunction in the probe's electronics, even a total breakdown of its onboard computer, will not alter its course by a millimeter. I suppose one of the thrusters could be permanently jammed in the ON position, but the odds that such a random occurrence would set the probe on a collision course with Earth are literally a trillion to one. We're talking astronomical distances here.
: You might say "it can't happen here" (I'm assuming you live in the Ewe Ess of Ay), but that is a sadly mistaken assumption; it really can happen here, but only in a modern, spin-doctored, blow-dried, media-savvy (or media-owning), red-white-and-blue apple-pie fashion. Maybe we're well on the way there. Just like many Depression-era Germans, we won't know what hit us until well after our bodies are covered in welts and bruises.
Yeah we're well on the way there, you ultra-left and ultra-right republicrats have been making it happen gradually now for quite awhile..
There is a web site (seen on /. I thought) that offered $1000 to a person who could prove that their car will not start on jan 1, 2000 because of a Y2K issue.
Posted by Charles Bronson:
The Nation is hardly an ultra-left wing magazine. It goes to show where politics are in American society when a liberal-leaning publication is considered to be "ultra-radical." Indeed, I am a former subscribed to The Nation and I never once saw any content I considered to be "ultra-radical."
Posted by Roland95:
Living under the threat of nuclear war during my childhood was enough. I can't believe that I have to do it again because of something I love! I understand how the earlier computer systems needed the extra 2 bytes and everything but I am beginning to think that the cost of the RAM would have been much less.
The part that worried me the most is the quote at the end from Arthur C. Clarke. Does anyone remember what happened when war was concieved in the circuits of computers?
Better get all your living done before January 1, 2000
Posted by Roland95:
FYI I was being rather sarcastic in the last post about the get all your living done... I don't think it will be that bad... the prospect just scairs the hell out of me.
The Nation is a very old magazine with roots in various flavors of progressive politics (think Teddy Roosevelt, Robert LaFollette, Eugene V Debs - maybe you'll have to ask your great-grandparents); it isn't ultra-anything, except maybe ultra-American. The "ultra-left" is a major (and often demonized) part of American politics in this century. You may think you're being cool with your post, but your predictable response is actually pretty sheep-like.
When sufficient numbers of the ruling and chattering classes (and those who parrot them - like ewe, for instance) are FUD-ing about, demonizing, and marginalizing "welfare cheats", "evil liberals", "drug abusers", "feminazis", and "faggots" and such, we're not far removed from a certain society that, once upon a time, did the same thing to Jews, Gypsies, communists, gays, and dissenters of various stripes. The NSDAP and its leader were democratically elected; they eventually took away the voters' right to vote them out. They also took away the people's right to speak out. You might say "it can't happen here" (I'm assuming you live in the Ewe Ess of Ay), but that is a sadly mistaken assumption; it really can happen here, but only in a modern, spin-doctored, blow-dried, media-savvy (or media-owning), red-white-and-blue apple-pie fashion. Maybe we're well on the way there. Just like many Depression-era Germans, we won't know what hit us until well after our bodies are covered in welts and bruises.
--
--
=8^
If you think that Republicans and Democrats, who are so hysterically fighting over a center-right sliver of the spectrum (the current pollster-defined "sweet spot"), are "ultra-left" and "ultra-right", then maybe ewe'd do well to look in the mirror in your search for culprits.
How much do I owe you for your little piece of lunchtime entertainment?
--
--
=8^
Because that's not how it works. The talking-head shows and op-ed people invite an Ann Coulter or a Barbara Olson into the mix so they can do the ridiculing. Meanwhile, no one seems to mention that Olson and her hubby are close friends of Ken Starr, and no one mentions the name of Richard Mellon Scaife, who has bankrolled many of the Get Clinton! projects (like the "Bubba killed Vince" melodrama, and the searches through every trailer park in Arkansas, amongst many other things). Frankly, I think Clinton is a GOP-wannabe, and a bad one at that; I'm the last person in the world to defend him. But if there isn't a "vast right-wing conspiracy", there's been something pretty much like it, going back to the days of Richard Viguerie and Paul Weyrich's late-70's prominence - it just didn't go into overdrive until they had a big fat saxophone-playing target to focus on. If you can't dig the idea of a "conspiracy", you're probably not old enough to remember the desperate aftermath of Reagan's failed 1976 campaign, or the name of his choice for a "running mate".
If you can't, for instance, explain who Father Coughlin was, or explain the trajectory of his national prominence, and how that relates to my earlier post (or to this one), then you're showing yourself to be someone who doesn't have a grasp of his own nation's history - you've already shown a script-kiddie ignorance of your own nation's politics. It's not like I'm asking you to dissect Indonesian natural-resources policy; it's your duty as a citizen to a) vote, and b) do a shitload of homework in preparation for that vote. This isn't something obscure, distant, or exotic, and it's really fucking important.
Come back once you've actually digested enough of that politics and history to be able to express your own thoughts (assuming you actually have any) in your own voice. Try to figure out why I, whose childhood heroes included Barry Goldwater and William F Buckley, would gladly piss on the shiny shoes of many of today's "conservatives". Don't waste bandwidth shitting out the pablum you've been fed.
--
--
=8^
Such toasters exist.
Consider this, why does a microwave oven need an IC in it? Years ago, when I had no money, and a dead microwave, I replaced the ICs and keypad with a pair of knife switches. It worked just fine.
As to why a chip with a date? Because they are general purpose off the shelf chips. Use the date if you need it, otherwise, dont. It's like my coffee maker. It has a timer so it can make the coffee just before I get up. If the power fails and the time gets unset, it won't brew coffee manually unless I set the clock to some time. It doesn't NEED to know the time to brew coffee, but it insists anyway. It may or may not have a date internally (if it does, it's wrong anyway).
This is a big problem. If there is a loss of power for more then 3 days, there WILL be meltdowns. The problem is that so much is dependent on power, railroads, oil. The big one, of course, is power. If there are major power outages, it will severely harm all other industries. Not scared yet? checkout
this site.
--
Man is most nearly himself when he achieves the seriousness of a child at play.
****Gfx Scrollbar Special case hit!!*****
But then again, Iraq's got nukes, and we ain't exactly friends with them..... THEY are the ones I am worried about, not the Russians or, hell, even the Chinese.
You forget that while a country may or may not have weapons of mass-destruction, they also need the delivery vehicle to bring that weapon to its enemy. Iraq does not have the missile technology to hit us or most anyplace in Europe.
But my other point is that even though I am trying to be optimistic, I am quite the survivalist and will be heading for the hills - and I am heading up the Y2K section of my consulting firm right now!!!!
That's pretty sad.. What's even sadder is that you'll end up convincing your friends and family of their impending Y2k-related doom and they'll do the same thing, tell their friends, etc.
If there does end up being a meltdown of the government or financial institutions, it's going to be due to attitudes like yours and not any direct result of a Y2k-related bug.
because he'd LOVE an excuse to nuke us. That's the only point I'm trying to make here
The point I'm trying to make is that he can't nuke us. He doesn't have the delivery vehicles to launch a nuclear strike against anything US. Not all countries have the technology to make a military strike against any country in the world.
...that the AC above is correct.
Most embedded systems don't give a flip what day, hour, minute, or second it is, much less what year it is. The early warning systems don't care what day or year it is, they only care about things like the weather, signal strength, solar activity and so on.
The missile control systems don't care what time it is. All they care about is whether they have gotten a signal that says "Start your engines". After that signal is received, all they care about is fuel pressure, combustion chamber temperature, velocity, current position, throttle valve settings, etc.
The machines that regulate the operation of power plants don't care what time it is. They work on signals like line voltage and current, torque on the generator drive shaft, rpm of the turbine, inlet steam temperature and pressure and so forth. The systems at power plants that produce data for human consumption are not the ones that control the operation of the machinery. They are the loggers and display systems. The only "kind of time" that the controllers really care about is a delta. As in, "How long has it been since I turned that valve to the new setting?"
The only systems that are _really_ dependent on "human" calendar dates and times are logging and accounting systems that produce data that is in some way supposed to eventually be read, processed, and acted upon _by_humans_.
I imagine that the worst thing that is going to happen due to the 99-00 turnover is that some of us will be late in receiving some paperwork, ie. checks and bills; and believe me, no one is going to get their power cut off because some computer has decided that you have not paid your bill for 100 years. It takes a human hand to cut you off. No one is going to be evicted because they didn't get credited for their mortgage payment in time. Everyone in any kind of an accounting job is going to be very sensitive to this kind of stuff for several months before and after the rollover and no one wants to be sued for being to quick to follow the reccomendations of possibly faulty software.
Good judgement comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgement.
- W. Wriston, former Citibank CEO
Not compared to some of the best of the 'net.
Try flag.blackened.net and/or www.zmag.org...
-Chris
Ignore the "hype". The media is just doing what it does best: selling airtime and magazines. The spin the media puts on things should in no way influence peoples examination of the actual facts.
Ignore the obviously sensationalist Time/Newsweek treatment of the subject ans listen to what the senate, NERC, et al have to say.
Y2K is hyped in much the same way that the Cuban missile crisis was hyped, except that today the media is far more irresponsible about how it reports things.
You could say in retrospect that all the people who built bomb shelters in their backyards were suckered into it by the media and people selling bomb shelters, but that doesn't mean the possibility of getting nuked wasn't there.
--
As long as each individual is facing the TV tube alone, formal freedom poses no threat to privilege.
"Reactionaries must be deprived of the right to voice their opinions; only the people have that right." - Mao
What's to prevent the Russians or Chinese (or Americans!) from DELIBERATELY launching several nukes on The Day and then saying "Whoops... must've been malfunctioning software"??
IIRC, China's longest-range missile (the long march) is able to reach New Delhi, but not the US.
No ICBM's in China's arsenal to my knowledge.
Also, there has been speculation on the part of the West that China may one day develop some imperialistic designs on the rest of the world on account of it's size and population.
This has never materialized however. China is too consumed with China's business to care about conquering the US or anyone else.
--
As long as each individual is facing the TV tube alone, formal freedom poses no threat to privilege.
"Reactionaries must be deprived of the right to voice their opinions; only the people have that right." - Mao
Each nation was allowed to protect ONE target. The USSR protected Moscow (probably still does, in fact, though its readiness might be suspect) and the USA protected a missile base. Yes, both nations DID have ABM technology then, though it was pretty short range, and mostly intended to prevent direct hits, not fallout damage etc. The US system was subsequently dismantled, I recall.
Patriot was NOT part of SDI. It was designed and always was designed to be an anti-aircraft system. It was never designed to be part of a strategic missile defense.
Yes, a missile destroyed in mid-air is going to safely contain the plutonium. These things do not arm until they are quite a ways into their flight. They are designed to be VERY tough and hard to damage. After all, if they weren't the chances of a dangerous accident would be very high. The designers of these things are paranoid, and with good reason.
SDI had problems, many problems, but not these.
And of course everyone realised that terrorist nuclear bombs were a threat.
Don't make the mistake of thinking that the people behind things like this are that stupid. Their overall priorities might not agree with yours and you might think their high-level decisions suck, but they're not dumb people.
This is what worries me:
So, everyone backs down and says "we are taking
our systems offline over the new year's period."
So then you know that a nation will be unable to
strike back during those hours. What's to stop
someone (eg Saddam) attacking during this downtime?
even if the systems weren't *really* down, it would
still cause nuclear war.
Kinda scares me.
DocTee
- doctea
Many countries that are close to China do have concerns about Chinese imperialistic tendencies. Tibet was "rejoined" with China. Taiwan as a "Runaway Province" certainly has major concerns. Vietnam, India, and Russia have had border disputes (and in some cases, armed conflicts) with China. The Spratley Islands (possible oil producing area) have been claimed and possessed by China despite the strong objections of several neighboring countries.
Nice idea, but it will never be implemented :(
I bet these contries would rather have the missiles flying away to some unknown destination than blowing up a military complex/harbour. Well it would be an incentive to get things fixed at least.
You don't exist. Go away. --SysVinit Halt
After all, everyone to the right of President Clinton is a member of the "vast right-wing conspiracy." And nobody in the media gave that moniker the belly laugh it deserved.
All opinions expressed herein are my own, and not those of my employers, who are appalled.
Without them, we could stop killing people
with the smoke from coal power plants.
Like France, we could be 70% nuclear.
Our air would be cleaner and acid rain would
be reduced.
If you really want that, stop using your car and use buses, trains and cycles - or walk. Believe me, if everybody does that, it'll most likely have a larger impact. And if the powers that be really get a clue, they'll discover that currently our best energy source is to stop wasting energy - not building nuclear power plants. Or did you solve that nasty problem with the nuclear waste last night and nobody noticed? Harrisburg? Chernobyl? Sellafield?
Argathin
Maybe every news site that refers to slashdot should refer to it parenthetically as "slashdot (a peanut gallery of unmannerly preteens)"
I've finally had it: until slashdot gets article moderation, I am not coming back.
Do you think you're a techie, or are you just a wannabe? In either case, you're an ignorant idiot.
1) there ain't enough nuclear material in Cassini for a bomb;
2) it isn't shaped for a bomb (and without that, even if there is enough material, it'll just melt or vaporize), and
3) it's encased in enough solid material that in the *extremely* unlikely event that it was so far off course that it hit the atmosphere and reentered (incredibly unlikely, Bruce Willis' POS Armaturkey aside), it would wind up as a lump on the bottom of the ocean, most likely (the planet *is* covered 70% with water, y'know).
mark
Tens of billions of chips are built into everything from toasters and video players to bombs and missiles, some programmed to shut down if they misread the date.
:)
ok Video players i understand , missles i understand, but wtf, who in the hell needs a dam IC in thier toaster, and going farther what kind of toaster needs a chip with a date. Last time i cleaned my Toaster, i saw one circut and it consisted of a pair of wiers from the wall, a thermostat and small switch and a heating coil. From that, where dose the Chip come in that needs to make sure its befor the y2K?
if you do have a toaster with a computer inside, i for one say you got ripped off cause you probly payed more that $5 for it, and at least mine will work after the Y2K
-magister-
If your spouse dies, the marriage is over! You can do whatever you want after that.
The treaty was signed with the U.S.S.R. That country no longer exists, so the U.S. can build whatever it wants.
If tits were wings it'd be flying around.
How many times did people dispute the possibility of a nuclear attack throught the 1980s and early 1990s to stop funding SDI. I guess there's nothing left to do now but hope nothing happens. Otherwise, what's there to do? Kind of makes SDI proponents look like forward thinking folks.
It sucks when you can't defend yourself, doesn't it?
P.S. I find it hard to believe that the default action for a nuclear system after it crashes is to launch, as attracive it might possibly be for a nuclear power.
~afniv
"Man könnte froh sein, wenn die Luft so rein wäre wie das Bier"
"We could be happy if the air was as pure as the beer"
~afniv
"Man könnte froh sein, wenn die Luft so rein wäre wie das Bier"
Richard von Weizs
The article didn't mention date rollover in nuclear weapon control systems specifically. Instead, it talked about their response to a wave of catastrophic computer crashes sweeping across the planet. This pretty much spelled out for me the knowledge level of the article's writers' on the subject.
They also mentioned nuclear power plants, stating that they would spontaneously melt down when this wave of devastation hit. Leaving aside the fact that it is extremely hard to make modern nuclear power plants melt down when you are actively trying to do so, the control systems that panic when anything like this happens aren't date-sensitive.
This article would probably make a neat movie, but IMO that's about it.
Hah.
Power goes out in a typical US power plant. The elctromagnets holding the control rods over the reactor shut off. The reactor stops dead, and can't be restarted until the rods are pulled out again.
You _can_ turn the reactors _off_ if there's a problem. How do you think that they do maintainence on them?
Um, the GPS satellites are way in the heck up in orbit, and don't give a flying leap what date computer systems down here think it is, because they have their own clocks on board (a GPS satellite's *job* is to transmit timing pulses, and that's it). Your GPS will still work, as long as you have batteries for it and nobody fires a box of nails up at the satellite.
So, drop the control rods in and shut down the reactor.
This assumes that the magnets holding the control rods up still have power, even though the cooling system doesn't.
If by some magic you can't drop the control rods, most reactors have a safety feature that lets you dump out the liquid that acts as a moderator. No more slow neutrons; the reactor stops dead.
If mischeivous Martians weld the control rods in place and similarly render all other safety mechanisms inoperative, preventing shutdown, then long before meltdown occurred your coolant pipes will burst. As the coolant is also the moderator, your reactor will stop dead. This makes one hell of a mess, but isn't catastrophic.
Meltdowns can only easily occur in reactors that use a moderator that can keep on moderating even when at the melting point of the fuel bundles. In Chernobyl, for instance, graphite rods were used to moderate the reactor. Graphite sublimates at about 4000 degrees C, and so remained in the reactor, slowing down neutrons, until the molten glop that was the reactor core spread out enough to no longer be able to sustain the reaction. Modern nuclear power plants use heavy water, ordinary water, or molten sodium as moderators. These have low boiling points (even sodium, IIRC).
Ever since the possibilty of meltdowns became known, the designers of nuclear power plants have made damned sure that the reactors will shut down, either by user action or by failure of moderator containment, long before meltdown can occur.
Just look at the way the media has hyped Y2K. They will have you convinced that the world is going to end on Jan. 1. You know why? Ratings! They are raking in the dough everytime they mention it!
I predict a lot of people are going to waste a lot of money preparing for Y2K. Anyone want to start a business? I'm sure a lot of people will capitalize on the frenzy that the news media has been creating.
Check out these cool Y2K complaint products. :)
After all, you don't want your appliances to kill you on Jan 1st 2000
Vacum
Washer/Dryer
Refrigerator
But my favorites are the "small appliances";
Can opener
Ric e cooker
Sal t&Pepper Mill
And of course, who can do without women and men's Y2K compliant shavers
- sigs are for wimps.
Check out these cool Y2K complaint products. :)
After all, you don't want your appliances to kill you on Jan 1st 2000
Vacum
Washer/Dryer
Refrigerator
But my favorites are the "small appliances";
Can opener
Ric e cooker
Sal t & Pepper Mill
F ood chopper
And of course, who can do without women and men's Y2K compliant shavers
- sigs are for wimps.
I find it simply fascinating that this is even being considered.
I don't give the guvmint a lot of credit in a lot of things, but one of the things left over from Reaganomics that isn't killing kids in the streets is a relatively efficient tracking system for nukes. Two in additions:
1) Not only that, but there's been talk of a joint Russian-American tracking system for nukes on the fateful eve.
2) Saddam is many things, but I don't peg him as suicidal. Little Cold War lesson for ya: Know why there wasn't nuclear war? No benefit. One launches, and the other four Nuke Powers launch, the world's over, we ALL die. If Saddam launches, even if he launches at us, he'll still die, cuz England tends to like us nowadays. (nice of them to get over that whole colony revolt thing)
Not only that, but unless I'm mistaken, I doubt he could launch a loogie hard enough nowadays to hurt us.
I say *again*, it is NOT going to happen. The stupidity of raising this kind of grief among the mis-informed is sadistic.
Hey guys and gals?
Grab a clue.
The year 2000 is going to come into our lives with much fanfare, lots of partying, maybe some riots, but there will be no nuclear attacks, no worldwide breakdowns of society, no massive death.
(As to the nuclear attacks, I again point people to this CNN article. We're safe, as far as the big messy booms go.)
How do I know all this? I don't. Granted. All these things could happen. Why do I think they won't?
Simply, "the world" is too complex for everything to come crashing down because of a stupid computer bug. Hardware's been replaced, and people don't remember. Isolated systems die, and don't take very much with them. Again, granted, I'm thinking about the US. Other countries may not have it so good, which could in turn shake up our economy more than it will be.
?More than it will be? Someone above said something about "I'm going to take all my money out of the banks because I don't trust them." That kind of idiocy is why our economy may be shaky. (remember "Sneakers"?)
In short, keep aware, keep your ears open, don't jump to conclusions, and don't worry too much.
The world will still suck just as much a year from now, and a programming bug isn't going to have a whole lot to do with that.
Granted, CNN is not slashdot, but it's not "USA Today" or the "New York Times", either.
And the mutual tracking system was on NPR (which I do trust) and a couple other news organizations as well.
Well, first I'd like to point out that in the two weeks since that article in the Nation (which I read - and thought it was unnecessarily nihilistic), the US and Russia have agreed to work together on the issue, including a constant monitoring of systems from Dec. 99 thru Jan. 00, to ensure that even if radars erroneously show a "missile", the lines of communication will be left open to make sure any mistaken data is cleared up. Also, kids, please remember that the Cold War really IS over
But then again, Iraq's got nukes, and we ain't exactly friends with them..... THEY are the ones I am worried about, not the Russians or, hell, even the Chinese
But my other point is that even though I am trying to be optimistic, I am quite the survivalist and will be heading for the hills - and I am heading up the Y2K section of my consulting firm right now!!!!
Just goes to show that being educated about the problem doesn't make it less scary
- Cybergrrrrrl
"You forget that while a country may or may not have weapons of mass-destruction, they also need the delivery vehicle to bring that weapon to its enemy. Iraq does not have the missile technology to hit us or most anyplace in Europe. "
Do we know this for a fact? We DO know that Saddam is a sick, twisted dictator that hates the U.S. And I'm sure he doesn't give a damn whether or not his mission critical systems (like missiles) are Y2K compliant, because he'd LOVE an excuse to nuke us. That's the only point I'm trying to make here.
"If there does end up being a meltdown of the government or financial institutions, it's going to be due to attitudes like yours and not any direct result of a Y2k-related bug."
Actually, it's the attitudes of the uneducated general public - feeding on the Y2K horror stories PLUS all of the well-publicized ramblings the religious cultists who think it's the end of the world anyway - that's making me stock up on pork and beans. I don't think the technology is gonna be what kicks our butts, and that's not really what scares me; what frightens me most is the chaos that will occur because of the human propensity to dumbly listen to these tales of Armageddon, and the ensuing riots that will happen when the power goes out. Which is very likely.
The Nation is more in line with the left wing of the old American Democratic party before they shifted to the center. Hardly ultra-left wing.
Zonker Harris "There is not, nor ought there be, any food more exalted on the face of god's grey earth, than that
Well, sure we can be paranoid. But when you get right down to it there is NOTHING you or I can do about it. We'll each try and make ourselves as secure as possible and keep our eyes peeled. Making a run on banks, and digging fallout shelters is just plain foolish. What good will money do in a world where the economy has died? Bleah.
Oh well. All I plan to do is be ready for an extended power outage, and I will have a nice trip up to the remote mountains during the day, to miss those fun accidental nuclear strikes. I'll probably die anyways, but its an excuse to to out with some friends. ^_^
Slashdot. It's Not For Common Sense
Ah, yes, but you forget that in the post-Reagan era, anyone to the left of Elizabeth Dole is a subversive attempting to destroy the American way of life ....
lake effect weblog
{Network engineer in Chicago--looking for work!}
If you dont have to set the year on it when the power goes out. It doesnt have a y2k bug. Your microwave will work, your toaster and your car. Your computer will work too, it will have the wrong date if its not y2k compliant. Your system is not going to shut off because the date rolled over. Some software might not work because your software license expired but then again you should use GNU stuff anyway =)
Microsoft aggravates my tourettes syndrome.
Why would you automate a nuclear system? I cant see the designers trusting an AND gate to determine the history of their families. I know if I designed a Nuclear missle system there would be a few keys that you would have to turn to initiate the launch. Not
if (Radar_Blip) {
launch();
exit(1);
} else work_on_rc5des();
=)
Microsoft aggravates my tourettes syndrome.
I'd just like to add to the paranoia.
I thought it was a bad idea when I heard Cassinni had a Nuclear payload. I just heard a tidbit last night on the radio about it not being Y2K compliant. Does anyone know when it is supposed to slingshot by the earth again. Everybody sing "if you see the flash duck and cover"
lol
lazz the sane
That's right. The Nation has been around since like 1700. It's in no way ultra-left wing. The fact that it can even been considered even mildly leftist is a sad commentry on how ultra-RIGHT wing this country has become.
Geez!
With all the references to VCR clocks and planes falling out of the sky, its painfully obvious that you guys did not read this thoroughly sourced article on problems with Y2K remediation.
In fact, I didn't see a single claim that a missle would explode as a result of a Y2K failure. The reporter actually quotes several sources that state that an accidental launch/detonation was highly unlikely.
The article highlights the potential problems with early warning and command/control functions. These potential threats have been +offically+ acknowledged by virtually every nuclear power.
Your arguments would be far more convincing, if you would actually try to refute the actual statements put forth by the various senators, defense ministers, oversight commitees, etc.
Check out Largest recipe database on the web.
I am sure that Y2K will be no REALLY big deal, but US Cavalry, a website which publishes a magazine, believes that we should prepare for the worst, offering all sorts of S.W.A.T. team issue Riot Gear, camo, jungle boots, night vision, and GPS (which is dumb cause if the worst imaginable happens, GPS isnt gonna work!) Check it out here!
"Ignorance is the mother of all computer problems..........and Microsoft..."
SIT BACK AND WATCH THE WORLD PANIC ABOUT NOTHING!
I was just trying to comment on how some companys are trying to cash in on the Y2K fear!
"mean people suck"
Ever try looting in 60 below weather? :)
--
Do I look like I speak for my employer?
Be sure you take it out in one-dollar bills. You get much more paper for starting your fireplace with, that way.
Or did you imagine you could buy stuff with money if the fewmets hit the windmill?
--
Do I look like I speak for my employer?
they launched the first early warning radar program and the alarm was triggered becuase they forgot to tell the program that the moon was not a russian icbm.
*y2k -Azathoths minions had it coming*
do you feel special? It's a VCR get a DVD player, they beat the #### out of VCRs
either we are networking or we areNT networking